VZCZCXRO7232
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHVB #0769 3631431
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 291431Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9772
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000769 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON HR
SUBJECT: ZAGREB DAILY REPORT: DECEMBER 29, 2009 
 
1.(U) OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS CONFIRMED; OSCE SAYS ELECTION 
MET INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS: The State Electoral Commission 
(DIP) on December 28 published official results of the recent 
presidential vote, which show that 1,975,909 out of a total 
of 4,495,233 eligible voters cast their ballots at 6,865 
polling stations in Croatia and 55 other countries, which 
puts the turnout at 43.96 percent.  Since none of the 
candidates won the majority of the votes, DIP established 
that conditions had been met to hold a run-off election for 
the President of the Republic on January 10, 2010. 
Candidates competing in the runoff are Ivo Josipovic of the 
Social Democratic Party (SDP) with 640,594 votes won in the 
first election round, and second place finisher, independent 
candidate Milan Bandic with 293,068 votes.  The OSCE Limited 
Election Observation Mission in Croatia concluded that the 
first round of Croatia's presidential elections met 
democratic standards overall, however, certain issues remain 
to be addressed such as campaign finance, voter registers, 
and media coverage of the elections.  The Limited Election 
Observation Mission will remain in Croatia to monitor the 
run-off, and will compile a final report two months later 
with recommendations for improvements to Croatia's electoral 
system. 
 
2.(U) JOSIPOVIC CAMPAIGN SHORING UP SUPPORT: SDP presidential 
candidate Ivo Josipovic has already secured several key 
endorsements that will bolster his chances in the runoff 
election.  Perhaps most importantly, incumbent, and 
ever-popular President Stjepan Mesic hinted his support for 
Josipovic, saying that, if elected, Josipovic would abide by 
the Constitution and the law, while he criticized Milan 
Bandic for lack of transparency of his campaign funding, his 
advocacy of establishing a separate, Croat-majority entity in 
neighboring Bosnia and Herzegovina, and his lack of knowledge 
of English.  Meanwhile, Darinko Kosor, President of the 
Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS), said December 28 that 
the HSLS is likely to support Josipovic in the January 10 
presidential run-off.  He indicated the party would make a 
formal decision at their December 29 party meeting. 
Similarly, Ivan Jakovic, President of the Istrian Democratic 
Party (IDS) and the IDS presidential candidate, Damir Kajin 
announced December 28 that they would recommend the IDS 
support Josipovic in the run-off.  Independent candidate, and 
fourth place finisher, Nadan Vidosevic also threw his support 
behind Josipovic.  While the Croatian People's Party (HNS), 
whose candidate Vesna Pusic finished fifth, is likely to 
decide later this week its position on the run-off 
candidates.  Local media speculate that HNS will likely back 
Josipovic. 
 
3.(U) BANDIC CAMPAIGN FACING UPHILL BATTLE: Zagreb Mayor 
Milan Bandic garnered only the support from independent 
candidates Dragan Primorac and Boris Miksic.  The 
independent, maverick mayor of Split, Zeljko Kerum also 
announced his endorsement of Bandic for president.  However, 
Bandic's chances in the second round received a blow when the 
Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) announced that it will not 
support either candidate in the run-off.  Prime Minister 
Jadranka Kosor, who is also the HDZ President, said early 
December 28 that the HDZ doesn't have a candidate whom we 
could recommend in the second round vote to our electorate. 
Most HDZ officials have indicated they would respect their 
civic obligations and vote in the run-off, but none have thus 
far offered even passive support to either campaign. 
 
4.(U) NO LIGHT YET AT END OF THE ECONOMIC TUNNEL: Official 
statistics for the third quarter of 2009 show GDP declined in 
real terms by 5.7 percent, a slight improvement over the 6.7 
and 6.3 percent declines of the first and second quarter, 
respectively.  Strong declines in imports, exports, personal 
spending, and fixed capitol investment continue to be the 
main factors behind Croatia's economic weakness.  Barring a 
surprise fourth quarter turnaround, Croatia's 2009 GDP will 
be greater than 5 percent. 
WALKER