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Viewing cable 09ZAGREB738, OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE HOLDS SOLID LEAD

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09ZAGREB738 2009-12-17 13:11 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Zagreb
VZCZCXRO9152
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHVB #0738/01 3511311
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 171311Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9743
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000738 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV HR
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE HOLDS SOLID LEAD 
FOR DEC. 27 BALLOT; TIGHT FIGHT FOR SECOND 
 
REF: A. ZAGREB 714 
     B. MEGES-WESTLEY 12/08/2009 EMAIL 
 
ZAGREB 00000738  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY:  With less than two-weeks to go before the 
first round vote in the presidential race, the most reliable 
polling numbers suggest that Ivo Josipovic, candidate of the 
main opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP), is certain to 
make the second round runoff. (REF A)  The race for the 
second slot in the January 10 vote is up for grabs and any of 
four candidates -- independents Milan Bandic, Nadan 
Vidosevic, or Dragan Primorac, as well as the ruling Croatian 
Democratic Union,s (HDZ) candidate Andrija Hebrang -- has a 
chance to reach the second round.  The campaign, meanwhile, 
is turning negative, especially among Primorac, Vidosevic, 
and Hebrang, who are all former HDZ colleagues.  The 
determining factor in which of the four candidates faces 
Josipovic in the run-off could well be the Croatian Diaspora 
vote.  END SUMMARY 
 
2. (U) Recent polls from Croatia's two most reliable polling 
firms -- PULS and PromocijaPlus -- have been telling the same 
story for the past several weeks.  Averaging the firms' 
combined ten polls from the past six weeks, Josipovic is 
likely to receive about 27 percent of the domestic vote. 
Bandic is at about 15 percent, with Vidosevic at 14 percent, 
and Hebrang about 10 percent.  Additionally, the number of 
undecided voters is trending down and is likely less than 10 
percent at this point.  Primorac is the one candidate who has 
shown a consistent upward trend in the polls and may do 
better than his 7 percent average.  One surprise in these 
polls is that Bandic so far appears to have failed to gain 
much traction with voters.  Many commentators and diplomats 
had assumed that Bandic's populist style and indefatigable 
campaigning would earn him more momentum than has appeared in 
the polls so far.  Also somewhat surprising is Hebrang's 
consistently poor showing.  This may be a result of ex-HDZ 
members Vidosevic and Primorac, and to a lesser extent 
Bandic, eating into the traditional HDZ voter base.  But 
polls may also be underestimating Hebrang's support.  He is 
most popular in rural areas, where HDZ loyalty is the 
strongest, and the HDZ has by far the best voter turn-out 
machinery of any political organization in the country. 
 
3. (U) None of the polls capture the Diaspora vote.  Based 
upon past presidential elections, Diaspora votes should add 
about 80,000 to 100,000 total votes to the mix -- primarily 
from Bosnia-Herzegovina.  Almost none of these are likely to 
go to the SDP's Josipovic.  Depending on overall voter 
turnout, the Diaspora vote could put 4 to 5 percentage points 
up for grabs, primarily between Hebrang and Bandic. 
Furthermore, the timing of the first round vote, December 27, 
may make the Diaspora vote all the more important. 
Traditionally, many more affluent Croatians -- typically 
supportive of the SDP -- go abroad on ski vacations after 
Christmas.  At the same time, some Diaspora Croatians from 
Western Europe, who are generally more supportive of the HDZ, 
will return to Croatia for the holidays.   In a race where 
there is less than 1 percentage point difference between 
Bandic and Vidosevic, the addition of a few extra percentage 
points via the Diaspora vote could well propel Bandic or even 
Hebrang over the top. 
 
4. (SBU) As the presidential race enters the final stages, 
the public may be getting bored with the cast of candidates. 
It has been underway unofficially for nearly six months, 
which is long by Croatian standards.  A recent poll by 
Transparency International found that less than 15 percent of 
Croats polled believe that politicians of any stripe make 
decisions based on the best interest of the country, while 
nearly half felt politicians only make decisions that are 
best for themselves. 
 
5. (SBU) Numerous commentaries have noted in recent weeks 
that the campaign has gone from dull to dull and negative. 
Policy issues have been largely absent, despite an effort, 
particularly by Josipovic to stress the need for a greater 
focus in Croatia on anti-corruption efforts.  Instead, almost 
all of the debate has been about personality and character 
issues.  In an early December TV debate, Vidosevic alleged 
that Primorac, a former Minister of Education, is rumored to 
have beaten his wife and past girlfriends.  Primorac has 
countered with accusations of slander and alleged that 
Vidosevic -- who is quite wealthy -- is a crook who should be 
investigated and convicted of embezzlement.  In the same 
debate Hebrang was combative and aggressive, accusing both 
Primorac and Vidosevic of an absence of patriotism and a 
failure to show real courage during the 1990s war.  Arguably, 
the only candidate to come out well from the debate was 
Bandic, who did not participate and was thereby able to avoid 
the mud slinging.  Another national TV debate will be on 
 
ZAGREB 00000738  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
December 22, and will give the top candidates one last 
opportunity to sway undecided voters before they go to the 
polls. 
FOLEY