VZCZCXRO2132
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0872 3551833
ZNR UUUUU ZZH ANTANANARIVO
R 211833Z DEC 09
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
INFO AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY

UNCLAS WASHDC 000872 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV 
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN 
LONDON FOR PETER LORD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MA SF
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION REJECTS NEW PM, PLANS PARALLEL GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: A) 09 ANTANANARIVO 868, 
B) 09 ANTANANARIVO 870, 
C) 09 ANTANANARIVO 858 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Andry "TGV" Rajoelina has removed all of the 
opposition leaders from positions held under the failed Maputo 
process, and named a retired army colonel, Albert Camille Vital, as 
his new prime minister.  The opposition movements announced they 
would continue implementing the Maputo Charter of the Transition 
without Rajoelina, essentially by forming a parallel government. 
Plans to "intensify" protests in Antananarivo have not yet resulted 
in any action, and it appeared on December 21 that Rajoelina and his 
new PM may attempt to arrest opposition leaders before renewed 
street protests gain any momentum.  While most Malagasy desperately 
hope that calm will prevail over the holiday season, Rajoelina's 
call for a "holiday truce" appears ever less likely to succeed. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Shortly after permitting the Maputo III participants to 
return to Madagascar on December 18 (reftel C), Rajoelina issued a 
decree (2009/1385) abrogating the nomination of consensus Prime 
Minister Euguene Mangalaza, effective immediately.  He then 
nominated Vice Prime Minister for the Interior Cecile Manorohanta as 
interim Prime Minister, effectively delivering on his mid-week 
statements indicating that he would no longer cooperate with 
Madagascar's other political movements. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Opposition leaders were quick to respond, with a press 
conference of their own at 20:00 that same night.  Former President 
Albert Zafy, along with Transition Co-President Fetison Rakoto 
Andrianirina and President of the Congress Mamy Rakotoarivelo (both 
representing Former President Marc Ravalomanana), reaffirmed their 
support for Mangalaza, and denounced Rajoelina's statements from his 
December 16 televised speech.  They opposed his plan to unilaterally 
organize elections in March 2010, and stated that they would instead 
continue implementing the Transition Charter, as agreed in Maputo 
and Addis Ababa from August to November.  Zafy called on the 
military to remain neutral and stay in their barracks, to avoid 
conflict as the three movements sought to "install" their new 
government in the coming days. 
 
¶4. (SBU) On December 18, Rajoelina also released an ordinance 
(2009/12) abrogating the Charter of the Transition (from Maputo) and 
the Additional Act (from Addis Ababa), thus rendering (in his view) 
the positions of Co-President, President of the Congress, and 
President of the National Reconciliation Council "null and void", 
despite opposition claims to the contrary.  He also indicated that 
there may be legal consequences for the December 18 press 
conference; on December 21, it was widely reported that Mamy 
Rakotoarivelo had been called into court for questioning, and rumors 
of arrest warrants for several opposition leaders began circulation 
again. 
 
¶5. (SBU) On December 20, Rajoelina named Colonel Albert Camille 
Vital as Prime Minister.  Vital is relatively unknown, and claims to 
have not met Rajoelina prior to December 20.  As a member of the 
Vezo ethnic group, from Tulear, he may satisfy those in the 
south-west who were incensed over the October sacking of PM Roindefo 
Monja (also from Tulear), but his appointment has little other 
immediate benefit.  Vital holds a degree in civil engineering from 
the USSR, and twice studied in French military schools, in 1991 and 
¶2001.  His highest military assignment was as Chef de Corps of the 
First Regiment Fifth Military in Tulear from 1998 to 2001.  He left 
the military in 2007 to launch a private security company in Tulear, 
and has been President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry in 
Tulear since 2008.  He has ties to both the Ratsiraka and Rajoelina 
political factions, but has little experience in politics.  Vital is 
rumored to have been Rajoelina's third choice, after Rear Admiral 
Hyppolite Ramaroson and General Ismael Mounibou. 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: Consensus Prime Minister Mangalaza has thus far 
refused to step down, stating that he is the "prime minister 
accepted by the international community" - although that claim is 
unlikely to help his cause among Rajoelina's movement.  Opposition 
leaders have announced plans to intensify their rallies at Magro (on 
the north side of the city) to protest Rajoelina's recent moves, and 
leaders at today's rally reportedly announced plans to "install" 156 
members of the transition congress on December 22 at the building of 
the former National Assembly in Tsimbazaza, in Antananarivo.  The 
next 24 hours will provide either an opportunity for the opposition 
to show its support, or for Rajoelina to steamroller their plans in 
the name of a one-sided "holiday truce". END COMMENT. 
 
 
MARQUARDT