VZCZCXYZ0003
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHVI #1590/01 3521246
ZNR UUUUU ZZH (CCY TEXT ADX: 0F098BB MSI5056 TMC)
P 181246Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY VIENNA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORIT 3911
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
NFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES

UNCLAS VIENNA 001590 
 
SENSITIVE - SIPDIS 
TRESURY FOR FTAT, OCC/SIEGEL, AND OASIA/ICB/MAIER 
TEASURY PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE AND SEC/E. JACOBS 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y (SECTION INFORMATION) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN AU
SUBJECT: Aiming to Reassure, Austrian Bank Stress Tests Underline 
Need for More Capital 
 
REF: A) Vienna 1583; B) Vienna 0839 
 
Sensitive but unclassified -- protect accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: New "stress test" results for Austrian banks -- 
released the same day the GoA had to take over 6th-largest Hypo Alpe 
Adria/HAA -- show that major banks could withstand a "double-dip" 
recession but will need additional capital in the medium-term.  The 
Austrian National Bank says major banks have performed better than 
expected this year (with the obvious exception of HAA) but face 
ongoing loan losses and must pursue structural change.  In the 
highly adverse scenario (a deep recession in 2010/2011), major 
banks' Tier 1 capital ratios would stay above 4% excepting HAA 
(which would fall below 4%); capital at 4th-largest Volksbanken AG 
would edge close to that level.  Markets are focused on how 
Volksbanken (which is not publicly listed) will shore up its capital 
after continuing to post major losses; another state equity 
injection cannot be ruled out.  END SUMMARY. 
 
BASELINE SCENARIO: Another EUR 10 Billion in Write-Offs 
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¶2. (U) On December 14, the OeNB (Austria's central bank) published 
the results of its latest stress tests (whose methodology is 
reportedly in line with international best practice).  As a group, 
Austrian banks have done better than expected since the first wave 
of stress tests (June 2009), with strong operating profits. 
Authorities expect additional loan losses and write-offs of EUR 10 
billion (on top of the EUR 10 billion already written off).  For its 
baseline scenario, the latest stress test assumes the following 
economic growth for the period Q3/2009 through Q2/2011: 
    Austria   0.7% 
    CESEE     1.5% 
Under the baseline scenario, the average Tier 1 ratio of Austrian 
banks would drop from 9.2% now to 8.8% in mid-2011; the six largest 
Austrian banks would average 8.3%, down from 8.8% today, based on 
their heavy  exposure in CESEE (Central, Eastern and Southeastern 
Europe). 
 
HIGH-STRESS SCENARIO: 
EUR 20 Billion More Down the Drain 
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¶3. (U) In the highly adverse scenario, GDP in Q2/2011 is assumed to 
be 4.5% below the baseline scenario in Austria and 8.2% lower in 
CESEE.  The stress scenario would cause a tripling of the 
non-performing loan (NPL) ratios to 8% in Austria and 16% in CESEE; 
write-downs would double to EUR 20 billion.  More NPLs together with 
additional loan-loss reserves, lower operating profits, and rising 
risk-weights would drive up capital requirements, particularly as 
measured by Tier 1.  As a result, the Tier 1 ratio of all Austrian 
banks on average would drop from currently 9.2% to 6.8% in 2010, 
that of the six major Austrian banks from 8.8% to 5.8%.  These 
average rates are still above the legal minimum requirement of 4.0% 
and do not/not take into account that the GoA bank rescue pot still 
has EUR 7.5 billion which the GoA give use for equity injections 
without going to Parliament again. 
 
¶4. (SBU) A closer look shows a mixed picture.  Most of the six large 
banks would remain above these average rates, while one -- 
nationalized Hypo Alpe Adria, whose nationalization on Dec. 14 (Ref 
A) was not reflected in the stress test results), and some 30 
smaller banks -- would likely fail to meet the 4.0% minimum 
requirement.  Another big bank (Volksbanken AG - discussed below) 
would come close to the legal minimum.  NOTE: Hypo Alpe Adria was 
nationalized just hours before the stress test results were 
published. END NOTE. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The OeNB is stressing the following points: 
-- As a group, Austrian banks have adequate resources to deal with 
foreseeable risks; 
-- Austrian banks can withstand another recession; but 
-- The level and quality of bank capital must increase over the 
medium term. 
Central bank Executive Director Andreas Ittner (who oversees 
financial markets and bank supervision) said publicly that major 
Austrian banks will need capital to deal with coming write-offs; the 
crisis is not yet over.  Ittner also predicted the crisis will 
accelerate consolidation in Austria's over-banked domestic market 
(NOTE: Austria has one of the world's highest density of banks and 
branches, with 867 banks total and one branch for every 1,630 
residents).  OeNB Director Philip Reading (responsible for financial 
stability and bank supervision) said Austrian banks will continue to 
meet regulatory minimums but are undercapitalized relative to 
international competitors, particularly those active in CESEE. 
 
All Eyes on Volksbanken 
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¶6. (SBU) Volksbanken AG, Austria's fourth largest bank, is 
reportedly in a shaky position but not nearly as weak as Hypo Alpe 
Adria prior to its nationalization this week.  For 2009, Volksbanken 
expects a loss of up to EUR 1 billion (its loss for the first three 
quarters was EUR 606 million).  The bank took EUR 1 billion in state 
equity in April 2009; its Tier 1 ratio at the end of September 2009 
stood at 9.1%.  Volksbanken has announced it will sell four 
subsidiary banks and is considering a strategic partner -- however, 
it is unclear who (if anyone) would want to buy those assets:  a 
leading Austrian banker opined to us last week that Volkbanken's CEE 
assets have no market value. 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: Volksbanken leadership said publicly this week 
that the bank will not take additional state equity, but we surmise 
that any additional deterioration would probably push it in that 
direction.  END COMMENT. 
 
EACHO