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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 001235 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HO
SUBJECT: TFH01:ELECTION RESULTS 
 
REF: TEGUCIGALPA 1222 
 
¶1. (U)  Summary.  The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) 
announced unverified results from the rapid transmission of 
preliminary results (TREP) system on election day, November 
¶29.  The TREP figures have now been subject to verification 
and indicate a voter turnout rate of 50 percent.  National 
Party candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo remains the undisputed 
leader with 56 percent of the vote compared to 38 percent for 
the second place candidate, Elvin Santos of the Liberal 
Party.  Lobo appears to have gained significantly more votes 
than 2005 winner President Jose Manuel "Mel" Zelaya.  While 
turnout looks to be lower in percentage rates than 2005, 
actual number of votes will be greater.  The National Party 
also crushed the Liberal Party in Congressional and municipal 
votes.  The Nationalists are believed to have won at least 
70-72 of the 128-seat Congress, and swept the municipalities 
winning at least 240 of the 298 mayoral contests.  This is 
the worst electoral defeat in the 120 year history of the 
Liberal Party.  Honduran voters severely punished Liberals 
and sent a powerful message of rejection of both Zelaya and 
de facto regime leader Roberto Micheletti.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announced 
unverified results from the rapid transmission of preliminary 
results (TREP) system on election day, November 29 (see 
reftel).  The TSE did state during the press conference at 
which it announced the results that they still had to be 
verified.  The TSE did a calculation of participation based 
on the unverified TREP results.  On election day, the TSE had 
received reporting from 61.86 percent of voting stations. 
The TSE calculated what the total vote count would be with 
100 percent of voting stations reporting and used the figure 
they came up with to calculate the voter turnout rate of 62 
percent they announced. 
 
¶3. (U) The TREP figures have now been subject to 
verification.  As of today, the total number of votes stands 
at 1,631,847 with 70.53 percent of polling stations 
reporting.  The projected total number of votes with 100 
percent of voting stations reporting is 2,313,692 with a 
total number of eligible voters of 4,601,032. If one does the 
same projection that the TSE carried out on election day, the 
participation rate would be 50.29 percent.  IFES conducted a 
further slight adjustment to include likely votes cast in the 
United States, which are not included in the TREP but 
included in the rolls of eligible voters, and came up with an 
estimated participation rate of 50.4 percent.  Of the total 
1,631,847 votes cast, 40,651 were blank and 63,227 were 
invalid. 
 
¶4. (U) National Party candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo remains 
the winner with a commanding lead.  With 70.53 percent of 
polling stations reporting, Lobo received 854,200 votes, 
National Party candidate Elvin Santos received 584,559 votes, 
Social Democratic Innovation and Unity Party (PINU) candidate 
Bernard Martinez received 32,784 votes, Christian Democratic 
Party (DC) candidate Felicito Avila received 29,050 votes, 
and Democratic Unification Party (UD) candidate Cesar Ham 
received 27,376 votes.  According to the TSE, these numbers 
translate into 56 percent of the vote for Lobo, 38 percent 
for Santos, and 2 percent each for the other three 
candidates. Lobo's showing should translate into close to 1.2 
million votes once all polling stations report, significantly 
higher than those garnered by President Jose Manuel "Mel" 
Zelaya in 2005; Zelaya received 915,075 votes, which was 49.9 
percent of the vote in that election. 
 
¶5. (SBU) On election day, TSE magistrate Enrique Ortez, from 
the Liberal Party, was under pressure from his party not to 
make the TREP results public.  Ortez argued that without 
verification of the TREP results, only the vote total for 
each candidate should be read along with the percentage of 
voting stations reporting.  As the magistrates took their 
seats at the press conference organized to announce the 
results, TSE president Saul Escobar ordered David Santa 
Maria, the TSE officer in charge of the TREP, to read all the 
numbers, including the totals for each candidate.  When Santa 
Maria finished, Escobar told Ortez to read the entire report 
on the quick count done by "Hagamos Democracia," the 
USAID-funded civil society domestic monitoring coalition. 
Although this was not planned and caught Ortez off guard, he 
 
TEGUCIGALP 00001235  002 OF 002 
 
 
read the report in its entirety.  This report showed a 
similar margin of victory for Pepe, but also included a lower 
estimated participation rate of 47.6 percent. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The National Party also scored an overwhelming 
victory in Congressional and municipal elections.  The 
Nationalists appear to have won at least 70-72 of the 128 
Congressional seats, a dramatic increase from their current 
¶55.  They also swept municipality tallies, winning at least 
240 of the 298 mayoral contests. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment.  TSE magistrate Raul Escobar, who belongs 
to the small Christian Democratic party, acted decisively on 
election day.  IFES expressed concern to USAID on December 1 
about the politicization of the TSE, noting that there would 
be no institutional progress if the TSE magistrates do not 
distance themselves from the political parties to which they 
belong.  The 50 percent turnout is a solid number for 
Honduras, especially given the estimate that 15 percent of 
registered voters live overseas.  While this is lower than 
2005's 55 percent, it follows a multi-election trend of lower 
turnout rates as over the years new names have been added to 
the voter rolls without taking out names of voters no longer 
resident.  Nevertheless, if current trends continue, the raw 
numbers should show a higher number of total votes for this 
election than in 2005. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment continued.  This is the worst electoral 
defeat in the 120-year history of the Liberal Party. 
Honduran voters severely punished Liberals and sent a 
powerful message of rejection of both Zelaya and Micheletti. 
LLORENS