VZCZCXRO7742
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK
RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLH RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHPW RUEHROV
RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHNT #2168/01 3381324
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041301Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1611
INFO ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
CIS COLLECTIVE
EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TASHKENT 002168 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN 
DEPARTMENT FOR OES/STC MICHAEL SCHENA AND OES/PCI BARBARA CATES 
EMBASSY ASTANA FOR BRUCE HUDSPETH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PREL SENV TSPL UZ
SUBJECT: UZBEKISTAN: WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND HYDROLOGY WORKSHOP GIVES 
HOPE FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION 
 
¶1. (SBU).  SUMMARY:  On November 10-12 the Government of Uzbekistan 
(GOU) hosted a Regional Workshop on Improving Weather, Climate, and 
Hydrological Service Delivery and Reducing Vulnerability to 
Disasters.  The workshop's purpose was to discuss weather, climate, 
and hydrological service delivery in Central Asia.  Representatives 
of the National Hydro-meteorological Services (NHMS) of the five 
Central Asian countries signed the Workshop Protocol, a draft 
Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), and a draft program of regional 
initiatives aimed at improving hydro-meteorological service 
delivery as well as increasing capacity to adapt to the changing 
climate.  The World Bank will serve as coordinator for the regional 
initiatives, implementation of which is to begin no later than 
December 2009.  The proposed initiatives could help ease 
long-standing tensions over water sharing in the region.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
STATUS OF NHMS IN CENTRAL ASIA 
 
------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) On November 10-12, Uzbekistan hosted a Regional Workshop 
on Improving Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Service Delivery 
and Reducing Vulnerability to Disasters in Central Asia and the 
Caucasus.  The European Commission, the UN office on International 
Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), the World Meteorological 
Organization (WMO), and the World Bank (WB) sponsored the event. 
Over 100 participants attended, including senior NHMS officials 
from Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, 
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as well as 
representatives of donor agencies and international financial 
institutions.  (NOTE:  Although the workshop ostensibly included 
issues affecting the Caucasus, in fact only issues related to 
Central Asia were discussed.) 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) World Bank Senior Environmental Officer Vladimir Tsirkunov 
opened the workshop with a general overview of NHMS in Central 
Asia.  He said that over the last 20 years massive underfunding has 
left the region with deteriorating observation networks, outdated 
equipment and technology, insufficient scientific and research 
support, and a lack of trained specialists.  As a result, regional 
NHMSs lack the capacity to respond to basic national needs for data 
and services, thereby making the region increasingly vulnerable to 
natural disasters.  He said that according to a recent WB study, a 
6-30 million USD investment program would make it possible to 
prevent economic losses amounting to between 5.8 and 23 million USD 
annually. 
 
 
 
COUNTRY PRESENTATIONS 
 
--------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Tajikistan NHMS head Mahmad Safarov said the 
weather-dependent sectors in Tajikistan's economy account for 61.4 
per cent of the country's GDP.  He characterized his agency as 
being in critical condition and said 6 million USD would be needed 
to modernize the Tajik NHMS. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Talgat Bigozhin, Deputy General Director of Kazakhstan's 
NHMS, said that Kazakhstan needs 266 million USD to modernize its 
NHMS.  He stressed the importance of data sharing, transboundary 
cooperation, joint studies on the impact of climate change, and 
assessment of water resources utilizing an agreed methodology. 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Turkmen NHMS head Kakamurad Yazyev said his agency often 
fails to meet the basic requirements of users for 
hydro-meteorological data and information.  He said an estimated 30 
million USD is needed for modernization of the Turkmen NHMS. 
 
TASHKENT 00002168  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Victor Chub, Director General of Uzbekistan's NHMS, 
stressed the importance of modernizing the Uzbek NHMS for 
hydro-meteorological safety forecasting and disaster risk 
management.  He said the main sources of potential natural 
disasters in Uzbekistan are located outside the country in 
neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.  Therefore, Chub continued, 
it is important for the Uzbek NHMS to cooperate and closely 
interact with Kyrgyz and Tajik NHMSs for collection, processing, 
and dissemination of hydro-meteorological data.  He informed that 
the GOU has already allocated 10 million USD to strengthen the 
technical capacity of the Uzbek NHMS, but he added that this is not 
enough to cover all the needs.  He said the Uzbek NHMS suffers from 
brain drain, lack of specialists, and a weak system of personnel 
training.  Chub requested outside training assistance. 
 
 
 
DONORS:  RISK ASSESSMENT AND SUPPORT FOR NHMS MODERNIZATION 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) International and donor organization representatives 
presented risk assessments and outlined their support for NHMS 
modernization.  Head of UNISDR's Asia and Pacific Regional 
Coordination Office Praveen Pardeshi said earthquakes are the 
dominant disaster risk in Central Asia, followed by floods, 
landslides, and drought.  Epidemics and transportation and 
industrial accidents are also significant.  During the last twenty 
years (1988-2007), 177 disasters have caused 36,463 deaths.  Of 
these reported disasters, 19 percent were earthquakes, 25 percent 
floods, 13 percent landslides, and 3 percent drought.  Earthquakes 
caused the greatest number of deaths:  32,834. 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Pardeshi continued that climate change models for Central 
Asia predict a temperature increase of 4 to 6 degrees Celsius over 
the next 80 years.  One consequence will be decreased water 
availability and the potential for severe droughts. 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Pardeshi said that UNISDR, in partnership with the WB and 
WMO, is implementing a Central Asia and Caucasus Disaster Risk 
Management Initiative (CAC-DRM) that focuses on three areas: (i) 
coordination of disaster mitigation, preparedness and response; 
(ii) financing of disaster losses, reconstruction and recovery, and 
disaster risk transfer instruments such as catastrophe insurance 
and weather derivatives; and (iii) hydro-meteorological 
forecasting, data sharing and early warning. 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) Matthias Anderegg, head of the Regional Disaster 
Reduction Program of the Swiss Agency for Development and 
Cooperation (SDC), reported on his agency's support of improved 
hydro-meteorological data generation, flow, and flood forecasts. 
The SDC project provides for rehabilitating and equipping at least 
60 observation platforms in the flow formation zones of the 
Syrdarya and Amudarya rivers, rehabilitating up to ten snow 
metering routes in the Amudarya river basin, and providing hardware 
and software tools for hydrological data processing and short and 
long-term flow forecasting.  The current phase of the project also 
aims to modernize the communication centers at each NHMS to improve 
data exchange between them and the key water users in Central Asia. 
 
 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) Alexander Kalashnikov from USAID/Uzbekistan outlined the 
US Government's technical assistance to Central Asian NHMSs. 
During 2000-2005 USAID supported programs to improve reliability of 
hydrological data collection and processing.  USAID procured and 
installed High Resolution Picture Terminal (HRPT) computer 
processing for downloading NOAA satellite imagery in Uzbek and 
Kazakh NHMSs.  To improve meteorological data collection from 
remote posts, 22 Campbell Scientific Instruments (CSI)were 
installed:  six in Kyrgyzstan, seven in Tajikistan, seven in 
 
TASHKENT 00002168  003 OF 003 
 
 
Uzbekistan, and one each in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.  USAID 
also provided a "batch" hydro-meteorological data communication 
system for 59 locations throughout Uzbekistan.  One of USAID's most 
successful regional activities was the installation of the Meteor 
Burst Communications System that includes 39 data transmission 
platforms in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. 
This network has the capacity to expand further, even to include 
China and Afghanistan.  (NOTE:  The various country delegations all 
acknowledged and expressed their appreciation for USAID support in 
NHMS improvements and modernization.) 
 
 
 
¶13. (SBU) USAID's future plans include support for analysis of the 
impact that global climate change is having on Central Asia's 
hydrology.  USAID also will support a comprehensive analysis of the 
economic ramifications of optimized water-energy resource 
utilization in the Syrdarya and Amudarya River Basins.  An 
important objective of USAID programs is to add substance to the 
inter-state water/energy dialog among the Central Asian countries. 
 
 
 
SIGNIFICANT OUTCOMES 
 
-------------------- 
 
 
 
¶14. (SBU) Representatives of the NHMSs of the five Central Asian 
countries signed the Workshop Protocol, a draft Memorandum of 
Understanding (MoU), and a draft program of regional initiatives. 
The MoU and draft program outline the main issues for the Central 
Asian NHMSs.  These include technical and organizational 
improvements needed to increase data sharing capabilities, timely 
monitoring of mountain snow-packs and glaciers, creation of 
national meteorological centers, development of regional approaches 
to quantitative forecasting for early warning and disaster risk 
management, capacity development and training of NHMS personnel, 
development of national data funds, and improvements needed for 
better assessments of the impact of climate change. 
 
 
 
¶15. (SBU) The MoU also asks that the Executive Committee of the 
International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) be a partner in 
these efforts, and it calls for revision of the 1999 Agreement 
between the Central Asian NHMSs on hydro-meteorological 
cooperation.  The MoU tasked the NHMSs to start joint 
implementation of the regional programs no later than December 
¶2009.  The WB agreed to serve as coordinator for follow-up 
consultations and actions.  (NOTE:  The MoU must still be approved 
by the individual Central Asian governments.) 
 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶16. (SBU) The proposed initiatives and regionally coordinated 
delivery of hydro-meteorological services will help the countries 
of Central Asia limit losses -- currently millions of dollars 
annually -- due to natural hazards.  They also will improve data 
and information sharing, climate monitoring, and drought 
management, thereby improving the countries' capacities to adapt to 
the changing climate.  Most importantly, improved cooperation 
between Central Asian NHMSs will contribute to the resolution of 
long-standing unsettled tensions over water allocation. 
BUTCHER