VZCZCXYZ0005
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTL #0396/01 3411119
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 071118Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0273
INFO EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE
RUEHCP/AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 0007
RUEHTL/AMEMBASSY TALLINN

UNCLAS TALLINN 000396 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
COPENHAGEN FOR ESTH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV KGHG PREL EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA ON COP-15: SKEPTICAL ABOUT CHANCES FOR SUCCESS 
 
REF: TALLINN 301 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On December 3, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
(MFA) briefed the diplomatic corps on the upcoming Copenhagen 
climate conference and the current state of climate negotiations. 
The presenters confirmed the GOE's priority for the conference is 
to reach an "ambitious and binding agreement," but also revealed 
the GOE's skepticism regarding the chances for success in 
Copenhagen.  The presenters' statements also highlighted concerns 
about a lack of ambition from the U.S. and the effect this will 
have going forward.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
--------------------------- 
 
COP-15 POSITIONS UNCHANGED... 
 
--------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) On December 3, the MFA hosted a briefing for the diplomatic 
community on the upcoming Copenhagen climate conference and the 
current state of climate negotiations.  Short presentations were 
made by Andre Lipand, from the Energy and Environment Division of 
the MFA, Keit Parts, of the European Union Department of the MFA, 
Karin Radiko, Chief Specialist in the Air Quality and Radioactivity 
Bureau of the Ministry of the Environment (MOE), and Kasper 
Kivisoo, Counselor on Energy and Climate Policy, European Union 
Secretariat of the State Chancellery.  Also in attendance were 
Allan Gromov, Deputy Secretary General of the MOE, and Mati Murd, 
Director of the Energy and Environment Division of the MFA. 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) Presenters gave a brief overview of climate change in 
general terms, the course of negotiations prior to COP-15, the role 
of the EU and the positions the Government of Estonia (GOE) will 
support in Copenhagen (see also reftel).  Kivisoo summarized GOE's 
priorities as: 
 
 
 
--a binding and ambitious agreement; 
 
 
 
--market-based instruments to finance climate change assistance to 
less developed countries; and, 
 
 
 
--a transparent institutional framework to verify countries are 
honoring their emissions reduction commitments. 
 
 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
...BUT GOE MORE SKEPTICAL ABOUT SUCCESS 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (U) Speakers made clear that the GOE is "always ready to 
negotiate" but nevertheless left the clear impression that Estonia 
does not expect COP-15 to result in a binding global agreement.  As 
a fallback (short of an agreement), Estonia supports a firm 
political commitment with a deadline for completing a strong 
legally binding agreement.  Additionally, the MFA's Keit Parts 
stated it would take a "miracle" now for the EU to increase their 
emissions cuts to 30 percent by 2020 (instead of the current plan 
of 20 percent by 2020) - a goal that seemed possible to reach this 
summer. 
 
 
 
¶5. (U) Estonian experts also expressed concerns about the EU's 
consolidated negotiating position.  Allan Gromov, Deputy 
Under-Secretary of the MOE and the primary climate change 
negotiator, noted that the new EU member states trust the 
leadership of the European Council more than they do the older 
member-states.  This is particularly the case on the financing 
scheme for assistance to developing countries. The same concern was 
 
echoed during a private discussion with Kivisoo, who stated the old 
member states push their own agendas, including focusing assistance 
on their former colonies, which has complicated the EU internal 
negotiations on climate change. 
 
 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
THE U.S. AND CHINA: "BIG, SLOW MAMMOTHS" 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) American leadership on climate change was contrasted 
(unfavorably) with that of the EU, although there was sympathy for 
the U.S. position.   Radiko acknowledged U.S. negotiators were "in 
a tough spot" since they had not received political backing from 
Congress.  She relayed concerns, however, that "if the U.S. is not 
ambitious in Copenhagen, then China will not be either, and this 
will create a domino effect."  Lipand began the briefing by noting 
humorously that while most Americans thought China was the source 
of the climate change problem, in fact, it was America. Finally, 
Kivisoo likened the U.S. and China to "big, slow mammoths" moving 
at their own pace. He contrasted that with the EU, which he said is 
moving swiftly and trying to lead other countries in the right 
direction. 
 
 
 
-------- 
 
COMMENT 
 
-------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) The GOE is sending a large delegation (approximately 21 
people) led by the Prime Minister to Copenhagen, but most will be 
attending for only a day or two.  The PM is likely going to 
demonstrate Estonia's commitment to the process, and thus deflect 
criticism from Estonia - the EU's largest per capita greenhouse gas 
emitter.  The size of the delegation, in these tough budgetary 
times, shows the GOE takes its international reputation seriously. 
However, the GOE's permanent delegation at the conference is being 
led by a junior official, showing Estonia has low expectations. 
DECKER