VZCZCXRO1596
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHPW RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHSM #0765 3431438
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 091438Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4971
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L STOCKHOLM 000765 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2019 
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS AF SW
SUBJECT: SHRAPNEL FROM SWEDEN'S AFGHAN DESK OFFICER 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D). 
 
(C) On December 8, Poloff met with Swedish MFA Afghanistan 
Desk Officer Mathias Otterstedt to discuss a variety of 
Afghanistan-related topics, including Finnish and Turkish 
participation in Sweden's PRT, increasing Western pressure on 
Karzai, and improving coordination between the EU and the 
United States.  He made the following points: 
 
-- Finnish PRT Cooperation: Rumors of Finland taking over 
part of the Swedish PRT have been around for a long time, but 
he doubts such would occur in the near term.  He gave three 
main reasons: 1) the Finns lack the funds needed to manage 
fully part of the PRT; 2) the Finnish government is too 
divided over its presence in Afghanistan to permit increased 
support; and, 3) the Finnish Armed Forces, which are "very 
influential (more than in Sweden)," are focused on Russia and 
the Baltic, "not on international crisis management." 
 
-- Turkish PRT Cooperation: There is a good chance the Turks 
will provide assistance to the Swedish PRT, but such would be 
solely civilian and not military.  Turkish troops will be 
present with a mandate "only to protect the civilian aid 
workers" and will use the same force protection model pattern 
as in their Wardak PRT, outside of Kabul. 
 
-- 2010 Elections: Sweden understands that President Karzai, 
according to the constitution, needs to announce the timing 
of the spring elections by late December.  However, 
Otterstedt said Sweden would prefer the elections to be 
postponed a year, or at least six months.  Holding elections 
in April/May would be "political suicide" due to the mass 
corruption surrounding the presidential elections.  Because 
UNAMA stated that at least three years are needed to remedy 
the corruption problems, the Swedes, and many Europeans, want 
the decision to postpone elections to come from Karzai 
himself, who is reluctant to be seen as "the guy to break the 
constitution."  Kai Eide and General McChrystal, among 
others, need to appeal to Karzai's "vanity" and encourage him 
to be the "father of the nation" and take the step forward. 
If the West tells Karzai it cannot get the funding and 
logistics together by the spring, then Karzai will be forced 
to delay the elections, suggested Otterstedt. 
 
-- Future Afghanistan Meetings: Sweden wants to see a 
biannual general assembly of all donors.  Sweden also wants 
to create a steering group for all regional players, he said, 
in which there will be subcommittees for, e.g., military 
strategy and development, made up of the top countries in 
those fields.  He said the British are drafting a plan for 
these initiatives. 
 
-- "What the EU needs from the United States":  Sweden is 
concerned that Washington is treating the EU as separate 
nations, focusing on talks with France and the UK, and 
ignoring other countries, Otterstedt said.  He continued that 
this "splits the EU up and reduces the ability of the EU to 
implement its Afghanistan Action Plan."  Unless the EU is 
engaged as a single entity, Member States "will find it more 
difficult (and be more reluctant) to work with the United 
States." 
 
-- Kai Eide's Replacement: While not yet public, Sweden's 
Staffan de Mistura will be named Kai Eide's successor as Head 
of UNAMA, Otterstedt offered.  Currently the UN Special 
Representative to Iraq, de Mistura has long career as a 
Swedish and UN diplomat. 
BARZUN