VZCZCXRO7239
OO RUEHIK
DE RUEHVJ #1427/01 3631457
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 291457Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1189
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JCS WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001427 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: FOCA MAYOR LAUNCHES NEW OPPOSITION PARTY 
 
SARAJEVO 00001427  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) On December 16, Foca Mayor Zdravko Krsmanovic 
launched the New Socialist Party (NSP) in Banja Luka, 
claiming that the NSP already has 5,000 members.  He said he 
plans to build a multi-ethnic party that will run candidates 
in all electoral units throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina 
(BiH) in the 2010 general election, and that his eventual 
goal is to oust Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Dodik. 
Although he comes across as moderate and progressive, and is 
certainly a much needed fresh face on the BiH political 
scene, some of Krsmanovic's comments about Bosniaks have 
given us cause for concern.  End Summary. 
 
KRSMANOVIC FAILS TO TAKE OVER THE SP 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Zdravko Krsmanovic, who is currently serving his 
second term as the Mayor of Foca, told us on December 22 that 
he was a founding member of the Socialist Party (SP) when it 
was created in 1997.  However, he said, he grew disillusioned 
with the party.  He felt that it had moved away from its 
founding principles of social justice, and, as the junior 
coalition partner to RS Prime Minister Dodik's ruling 
Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), it had 
completely lost its separate identity.  Krsmanovic said that 
the party was slowly being "absorbed" by the SNSD, and 
pointed out that half of the members left SP to join SNSD in 
2002, led by Serb member of the BiH Presidency Nebojsa 
Radmanovic and Republika Srpska National Assembly (RSNA) 
Speaker Igor Radojicic.  Krsmanovic has publicly accused 
Dodik of trying to "gobble up" the SP, using blackmail, 
pay-offs, his strong control of the media, and police-state 
methods.  He told us that a majority of SP members believed 
the same things, and were ready for a dramatic change within 
the party -- including a return to its natural position on 
the left of the political spectrum. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) As a result, Krsmanovic decided to run for SP 
President, in an attempt to oust incumbent Petar Djokic and 
to set a new course for the party.  However, Dodik and other 
Serb leaders, including the visiting President of the 
Socialist Party of Serbia Ivica Dacic, turned up at the SP 
party cngress on November 18 and showed strong support for 
Djokic.  Party members then re-elected Djokic asparty 
president.  Afterwards, Krsmanovic very pulicly alleged that 
the vote counting process wasirregular, at best.  He has 
also claimed that, in months leading up to the Congress, the 
members were under tremendous pressure from Dodik and Djokic 
to preserve the status quo and keep Djokic in power. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Krsmanovic has also publicly alleged that key SP 
officials were paid off with jobs or through loans from the 
RS Investment and Development Bank (RS IDB).  (NOTE: This is 
but one in a series of allegations from numerous sources that 
Dodik uses the RS IDB for political and personal gain. 
However, the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the 
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) 
recently approved loan programs that will be administered 
through the RS IDB, thereby fueling Dodik's claims that the 
RS IDB has international credibility.  End Note.) 
 
¶5.  (SBU) According to media reports, the SP Main Board met 
on November 28 and officially decided to throw Krsmanovic out 
of the party.  They cited his "destructive activities" and 
"public statements which are contrary to SP's policy and 
principles" as the rationale for this move.  Krsmanovic told 
us that his former party colleagues did not even invite him 
to this session to present him with the results in person, 
even though he was a Vice President of the party until he was 
thrown out.  He told us that this is one clear indication 
that SP has strayed a long way from being a democratic party, 
and he claimed that their "fear" of him showed their 
weakness. 
 
KRSMANOVIC LAUNCHES HIS NEW SOCIALIST PARTY 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) On December 16 we attended the official launch of 
Krsmanovic's New Socialist Party (NSP).  It took place in the 
seat of the new party, a small apartment near downtown Banja 
Luka.   Krsmanovic said that, although the current 
authorities are "against him," he succeeded in establishing 
 
SARAJEVO 00001427  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
NSP along with 5000 other co-founders from throughout the RS. 
 Krsmanovic explained that NSP will work for social justice, 
aggressively seek to eradicate corruption, and seek further 
decentralization through the transfer of competencies from 
the state and entities to the municipalities.  He said that 
NSP supports radical changes "because the people of this 
country are starving."  He promised to work with any unions 
that have not been "bought" by the government, and announced 
triumphantly that "the elite is finished." 
 
NSP TO SERVE AS "FIERCE OPPOSITION" TO SNSD AND DODIK 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Krsmanovic told us that he wants his party to serve 
as a "fierce opposition party" and to actively fight against 
Dodik's "undemocratic regime" in the October 2010 general 
elections.  He said that in January 2010 he will delegate 
most of his mayoral duties to his very capable deputy mayor 
in Foca (also a member of NSP), so that he will have more 
time to focus on his party and the campaign.  He said that he 
will continue to hold the position of mayor, but that he also 
plans to run for higher office in 2010.  He said that any 
party -- especially a new one -- needs a strong leader who 
can run for a position of higher leadership, and thereby lift 
the status and raise the profile of all of the other 
candidates of the party.  Krsmanovic said that NSP is already 
working with the National Democratic Institute (NDI), and 
that he will develop his campaign strategy on the basis of 
some NDI polling results that will come out in March. 
Krsmanovic said that he plans to run NSP candidates in all 
electoral districts throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) 
and in all of the cantons in the Federation of BiH (FBiH). 
He said that the party has unofficially opened an office in 
Sarajevo, and that he expects to win "plenty of votes from 
Bosniaks." 
 
KRSMANOVIC SUPPORTS FOREIGN JUDGES AND PROSECUTORS 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Krsmanovic told us that he thinks that all of the 
foreign judges and prosecutors should have stayed on in BiH 
with an extended mandate.  He said that the international 
community (IC) lacked the courage to extend the mandate for 
all of them, and the fact that the mandates for those working 
on organized crime and corruption were not extended makes it 
look like the IC made a deal with Dodik and other criminal 
leaders in BiH.  He said that everyone should be equal before 
the law, and that the current "mafia state" is not 
sustainable in the long term.  Krsmanovic insisted that real 
leaders must work towards the well-being of all future 
generations, and not simply the well-being of their own 
families and heirs. 
 
KRSMANOVIC BELIEVES THAT BOSNIAKS WILL PREVENT A REFERENDUM 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Krsmanovic told us that he does not believe that 
there will be a referendum in the RS on the issue of the High 
Representative's recent decisions because "it does not make 
sense."  He said that a referendum on a more serious issue 
like possible secession is more likely.  Nevertheless, he 
insisted that "Bosniaks will never let this happen." 
(Comment:  We thought that he meant that they would use 
democratic means like Vital National Issue (VNI) rights in 
the RS Council of Peoples to prevent a referendum.  However, 
Krsmanovic clarified by saying that Bosniaks, or those among 
them, like Mujahedeen, "will strap explosives to themselves 
and walk into buildings and start blowing things up."  Given 
how hard he was angling for USG support during the meeting, 
it was surprising that he should make a comment so at odds 
with his tolerant, multi-ethnic persona.  End Comment.) 
Krsmanovic also insisted that 16 percent of the BiH 
population wants a return to armed conflict.  We pressed him 
on this, and he insisted that there is still plenty of 
intense hatred in BiH, and that hatred combined with an 
economic crisis and a terrible financial situation for the 
citizens is a combustible combination. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) It is good news that there is a new party on the 
RS and BiH political scene pursuing a positive agenda with a 
charismatic and energetic leader like Krsmanovic.  However, 
 
SARAJEVO 00001427  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
it will be hardfor him to follow through with his plans.  It 
isnot easy to start a new party in BiH or oppose a pwerful 
regime like Dodik's.  Because Krsmanovic s a popular 
political figure in Sarajevo, Dodik and other Serb leaders 
have already publicly labeled him a traitor to Serb interests 
and as a "favorite" of the IC.  Krsmanovic will be 
hard-pressed to counter this perception, which he must do in 
order to win votes in the RS.  He will also have to deal with 
the problem of lack of access to RS Government-controlled 
media, a problem shared by all opposition parties in RS. 
Although he has progressive viewpoints on many issues, he 
also has expressed some prejudices that may warrant some 
caution in our dealings with him. 
ENGLISH