VZCZCXRO9851
OO RUEHIK
DE RUEHVJ #1382/01 3520702
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 180702Z DEC 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1140
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001382 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR DAS JONES AND EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA:HIGHREP IMPOSES NEW RULES FOR MOSTAR MAYOR 
ELECTION 
 
SARAJEVO 00001382  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) On December 14 High Representative Valentin Inzko 
imposed a decision which changes voting procedures in Mostar 
aimed at breaking a political deadlock that has prevented the 
election of a mayor for the past 14 months.    The city 
council plans to hold a session on December 18 where a mayor 
may be elected.  However, even that happens, the new mayor 
could be forced to govern without the support of a majority 
of the city councilors, which would complicate governance and 
agreement on budgeting.  End Summary. 
 
The Arithmetic of the Mostar Mayor Election 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The Mostar mayor is elected indirectly by city 
councilors, who have been unable to choose a mayor since the 
councilors were elected in 2008.   Before the HighRep's 
recent decision, there was a requirement that an absolute 
majority (18) of the councilors vote for a candidate before 
he/she could be elected.  Despite multiple rounds of voting, 
over many months no candidate received the required 18 votes. 
 The Council is divided into three political blocs: a Bosniak 
group (14 members) which supports the candidate from the 
Party for Democratic Action (SDA) Suad Hasandedic; a Croat 
group (14 members) which supports the candidate from the 
Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ-BiH) Ljubo Beslic; and seven 
councilors from parties not based on an ethnic principle 
(Social Democratic Party-SDP--and Party for Prosperity-NSRzB) 
who traditionally have abstained in the voting.  Continued 
abstentions by this group prevented election of the mayor. 
 
 
The High Rep's Decision 
----------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) The HighRep engaged with Mostar politicians for many 
months to try to break this deadlock.  In October he imposed 
a requirement for secret balloting in the hopes that this 
would free up councilors from the commands of party bosses 
and make it possible for one candidate to receive the 18 
votes necessary.  However, the councilors reportedly were 
ordered to put telltale marks on their "secret" ballots to 
identify who had voted for which candidate and failed to 
elect a mayor.  The HighRep's recent decision will allow a 
simple majority of the councilors to elect a mayor.  The 
decision also requires that a quorum of at least 18 
councilors participate in the election, and requires that a 
budget be passed within three days of the election of the 
mayor.  Otherwise the newly-elected mayor can impose a 
budget.  The decision requires that all parties attend the 
session in which the mayor is elected, but it is not clear 
what sanctions would be imposed if parties boycotted a 
session so that the requisite quorum still might not be 
achieved.  Before utilizing the new rules imposed by the High 
Representative, the council will have two rounds of voting 
which require that a candidate receive support from 24 (two 
thirds) of the 35 councilors.  The city council plans to hold 
a session on December 18 where a mayor may be elected. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Many observers expect that an election under the 
HighRep's new rules will result in the election of a Bosniak 
candidate.  In the event of a "tie," under Mostar's peculiar 
rules, the youngest candidate (the Croat) would be elected. 
However, many of the members of the political bloc which had 
previously abstained are Bosniaks, and some of them are 
expected to vote for SDA candidate giving him a simple 
majority and the mayoralty. 
 
Reactions of Politicians 
------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Local Croat politicians have reacted critically, 
and even furiously, to the HighRep's decision.  The HDZ-BiH 
called the High Rep's decision "utterly hypocritical, 
irresponsible and unserious," because, they said, the HighRep 
had given previous assurances that he would not change the 
rules in the middle of the game.  The HDZ-BiH called for the 
immediate removal of the HighRep, saying that the Office of 
the High Representative (OHR) only served the interests of 
the Bosniaks.  HDZ-1990, which broke away from HDZ-BiH in 
2006, was less harsh in its denunciation, but still 
criticized the decision.  Their statement said the election 
could lead to the election of a mayor but that it was "not 
the solution" for Mostar.  Most Croats favor the direct 
 
SARAJEVO 00001382  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
election of a mayor by all Mostar residents, because they 
(and other observers) believe that Croats now comprise a 
majority of the city's residents. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Despite the harsh rhetoric of HDZ-BiH, City Council 
President Denis Lasic, an HDZ-BiH member, told us there were 
no current plans to boycott the upcoming session of the city 
council where the mayor might be elected.  He added that his 
party has been negotiating to attract the votes of councilors 
from non-Croat parties. 
 
¶7.  (U) Bosniak reactions to the decision have been more 
muted, presumably because they believe that the change in 
rules will result in the election of a Bosniak Mayor.  Mirsad 
Huseinagic, the chairman of the Party for Bosnia and 
Herzegovina (SBiH) branch in Mostar, said that the HighRep's 
decision is a compromise in the interest of Mostar.  Salem 
Maric, a member of the SDA board in Mostar, said that nobody 
gained by the decision and all candidates have an equal 
chance of winning. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Although the possibility of a boycott of the 
upcoming city council session cannot be ruled out, most 
observers expect the HighRep's decision to result in the 
election of a mayor in the upcoming days and weeks.  Even if 
a mayor is elected, without a majority on the city council it 
will be difficult to implement policies or agree on budgets. 
The decision will also further fuel sentiments in the Croat 
community that OHR is a problem in Bosnia and should be 
closed.  The bottom line: despite the redoubled efforts by 
the HighRep, Mostar is likely to remain both ungoverned and a 
thorn in the side of Bosniak-Croat cooperation. 
 
 
ENGLISH