VZCZCXRO1078
PP RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHDIR
DE RUEHYN #2178/01 3430703
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 090703Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY SANAA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3338
INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 002178 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA/ARP FOR ANDREW MACDONALD 
USAID FOR CHRIS KISCO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SOCI KWMN KIRF ELAB EAID ECON
YM 
SUBJECT: POPULATION PROJECTIONS OFF THE CHARTS IN YEMEN 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  Population projections in Yemen are among 
some of the highest in the world.  According to the ROYG's 
National Population Council, the Yemeni population 
(approximately 23 million) will double within 23 years if 
current growth rates continue.  With assistance from the 
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the ROYG's National 
Population Council and the Ministry of Public Health and 
Population create and implement government policy towards 
combating overpopulation.  Since 2000, the ROYG has developed 
and implemented a National Reproductive Health Strategy to 
standardize its approach.  While the ROYG's policy is mostly 
oriented towards Western reproductive health standards at the 
highest levels, the ROYG will continue to struggle to 
transfer the spirit of that policy to local governments and 
rural areas.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Population projections in Yemen are among some of 
the highest in the world.  According to the ROYG's National 
Population Council, the Yemeni population (approximately 23 
million) will double within 23 years if current growth rates 
continue.  Officially, the population growth rate is 3.2 
percent, while the fertility data is 6.2 children per woman 
in urban areas and 6.7 in rural areas.  (Comment: Both the 
population growth and fertility rates are significantly 
outdated and thus subject to discrepancies and may be 
significantly higher.  The population growth rate was last 
determined during the 2004 census, and the fertility rate is 
from 2003.  End Comment.)  High population growth rates have 
resulted in a so-called "youth bulge" with 50 percent of the 
population under the age of 15 and an additional 30 percent 
between 15 and 29.  Yemen lacks education and employment 
prospects, and the young population is at risk for becoming a 
source of social instability. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) With encouragement from the United Nations 
Population Fund (UNFPA), the ROYG has recognized that the 
rising population increasingly places burdens on natural 
resources such as food and water and has implications for 
social stability.  In 1993, the ROYG established the National 
Population Council to consider the problem of population 
expansion.  The Ministry of Public Health and Population 
partners with international donors, such as the UNFPA, to 
implement the National Population Strategy, developed by the 
National Population Council. 
 
ROYG'S POPULATION INSTITUTIONS 
------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (U) The National Population Council has a mandate to 
conduct monitoring, create policy, coordinate with other 
bodies (such as the Ministries of Health and Education), and 
increase public awareness.  Abdul-Malik Ali Sharafuddin, 
General Director of Planning and Resources in the Technical 
Population Secretariat of the National Population Council, 
told EconOff that the public awareness campaign is 
particularly weak in rural areas where it is difficult to 
reach 133,000 villages.  There are 16 coordination committees 
in the governorates to spread awareness of the importance of 
family planning outside of urban areas, although their actual 
reach is limited in scope. 
 
¶5.  (U) Collaboration is the name of the game when it comes 
to combating overpopulation in Yemen, according to Dr. Jamila 
Saleh Al-Raiby, Deputy Minister for Population at the 
Ministry of Public Health and Population.  Dr. Raiby told 
EconOff that representatives from the Prime Minister's Office 
and the Cabinet have attended recent meetings on the family 
planning program at the Ministry.  She said that things are 
"going well, but we can't work alone."  The Ministry of 
Public Health and Population is advocating in the cabinet to 
mobilize additional resources within the ROYG and is 
attempting to gain support for family planning programming 
from other key line ministries such as the Ministries of 
Agriculture and Education. 
 
THINKING STRATEGICALLY? 
----------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Since 2000, the ROYG has developed and implemented 
a National Reproductive Health Strategy to standardize its 
approach to impending overpopulation.  The goals of the 
strategy include standardizing regional stores of 
contraceptives, introducing a health information system, 
updating manuals for family planning, and responding to the 
high demand for contraceptives.  With donor support, the 
Ministry of Public Health and Population has conducted 
outreach to students through a Health Education Center at the 
 
SANAA 00002178  002 OF 002 
 
 
University, NGOs, journalists, health officials, and 
religious leaders.  The ROYG is currently updating its plan 
of action for 2010.  (Comment: While the importance of a 
national strategy for reproductive health is recognized 
within the government, challenges indigenous to Yemeni 
society still persist.  When it comes to family size, Yemeni 
families, in general, have an attitude that "God (Allah) will 
take care of everything."  Some also believe that any type of 
contraceptive action is a "shame on Islam." The lack of 
public awareness of reproductive health continues to remain a 
major obstacle to countering overpopulation, despite the fact 
that demand for contraceptives exceeds supply.  End Comment.) 
 
 
¶7.  (U) Generally, Yemenis are reluctant to use and are 
unfamiliar with family planning as a way to reduce population 
growth.  This is most acute in rural areas, which are also 
the areas least engaged by central government ministries and 
basic health practices education.  The USG is providing 
support for population growth reduction by financing midwife 
training for family planning counseling, engaging religious 
leaders on how to discuss family planning, education about 
and distribution of contraceptives through local NGOs, and 
development of quality family planning data, particularly in 
rural areas. 
 
INTERNATIONAL MOBILIZATION 
-------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The UNFPA remains the major international mobilizer 
of resources that focus on population and development, 
gender, as well as reproductive health.  Himyar Abdulmoghni, 
Assistant Representative of Population, Development, and 
Gender at UNFPA, told EconOff that his organization has 
prioritized the effect of rapid population growth (3.2 
percent) on limited resources.  They identified programs 
approaching family planning and reproductive health as 
potentially having a major impact on population growth, and 
have allocated USD 40 million for reproductive health. 
(Note: UNFPA is limited to problems that approach population 
and health, and cannot consider water scarcity and food 
security in their programming.  End Note.)  UNFPA believes 
that family planning could reduce up to 25 percent of 
maternal mortality, which is currently one death for every 
300 births.  The UNFPA programs, in conjunction with the 
Ministry of Public Health and Population, have gained support 
at the highest levels of the ROYG.  In 2007, President Saleh 
announced that family planning is a priority and the Prime 
Minister held a national population conference supported by 
USAID which brought together key ROYG officials handling 
population issues.  Despite implicit executive support since 
2007, UNFPA and other donors such as USAID have served as the 
major instigators, pressuring the ROYG to move forward on 
population, gender, and reproductive health issues. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.   (SBU) While the ROYG's policy is mostly oriented towards 
Western reproductive health standards at the highest levels, 
the ROYG will continue to struggle to transfer the spirit of 
that policy to local governments and rural populations. 
Public awareness remains the major challenge to successfully 
implementing the National Reproductive Health Strategy. 
Outreach to religious leaders and other opposition groups, 
who have direct contact with and influence over rural 
populations, may lead to sustainable thinking that has a 
generational effect.  End Comment. 
SECHE