VZCZCXYZ0017
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNY #0787/01 3571229
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231229Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY OSLO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8059

UNCLAS OSLO 000787 
 
SENSITIVE, SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/NB, S/SRAP, NEA/IPA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS:PREL, OEXC, PGOV, NO 
SUBJECT: NORWAY CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADER ERNA SOLBERG DISCUSSES 
NOBEL, ARCTIC, AFGHANISTAN WITH AMBASSADOR 
 
REFS: OSLO 778 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Erna Solberg, leader of the Conservative 
("Hoyre") Party (the second largest opposition party in Norway after 
the right-wing Progress Party) told Ambassador White on December 15 
that many Norwegians were favorably impressed by President Obama's 
direct message in his Nobel speech, that Norway needs to be careful 
in business dealings with the Russians, that the Conservative Party 
and the Progress Party have difficulty presenting a united 
opposition to PM Stoltenbergs Red-Green coalation because of 
fundamental disagreements about immigration and spending,  and that 
the Conservatives believe the Norwegian armed forces are underfunded 
and understaffed.  End Summary 
 
Obama's Nobel Prize 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The Ambassador made an initial courtesy call December 15 on 
Erna Solberg, leader of the Conservative ("Hoyre") Party, at her 
office in parliament, accompanied by poloff and pol LES.   The 
meeting started with a discussion about the President's visit and 
the Nobel Peace Prize.  Mrs. Solberg quipped playfully that the 
previous week had been "Obamarama."  She did not offer comment on 
the appropriateness of the prize, saying that it was the Nobel 
Committee's decision.  She said that she thought many Norwegians 
were favorably surprised by the President's direct speech.  She 
commented that only a few on the left had thought it was too much 
about war and too little about peace. 
 
Women in Norwegian Politics 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) The Ambassador said he was impressed by the level of female 
participation in Norwegian politics, and Solberg stated that the 
fact that five out of seven party leaders are women shows that the 
Norwegian society is egalitarian and independent. 
 
Energy / Lofoten / The Arctic / Russia 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) The Ambassador told Solberg about the energy-related trips he 
has already made:  with Energy Secretary Chu to the Mongstad 
facility in western Norway, and with Minister of Trade and Industry 
Trond Giske to view the Snohvit liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility 
in Hammerfest in northern Norway.  The two discussed whether or not 
carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is viable or not.  They 
talked about how shale gas may become an increasingly important 
source of natural gas in the United States over the coming years, 
that its use could have energy security implications, and that 
Statoil has an installation in Maryland. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Ambassador asked Solberg if potential exploration off 
the protected Lofoten-Vesteraalen coastal area could become a 
game-changing political issue affecting the Red-Green coalition's 
unity.  Solberg responded that, for its part, Hoyre wants to open 
the fields off the islands for exploration, but would like to listen 
to the fisheries associations and other parties involved in terms of 
the most vulnerable areas. 
 
¶6. (SBU) On Arctic policy, Solberg said that the GON's High North 
policy, first articulated by then Foreign Minister Jan Petersen (now 
Norwegian Ambassador to Austria) had unanimous support in the 
Storting.  As the ice caps are melting, new areas will be opened up 
for oil and gas exploration.  Energy, environment, and 
Norwegian-Russian relations were of most concern.  She pointed out 
the need to follow closely development in Russia's Shtokman field. 
Furthermore, she mentioned Norwegian communications giant Telenor's 
strife in Russian courts over its involvement in Russian-based 
VimpelCom.  The lesson learned from this is that Norway needs to be 
careful when dealing with the Russians, both in business and other 
matters, said Solberg. 
 
Relations with the U.S. and the NATO Parliamentary Assembly 
------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Mrs. Solberg emphasized the good relations between her party 
and the U.S., telling the Ambassador about her latest trip to the 
U.S. in early December which included, among other things, a visit 
to the National War College in Washington, D.C.  She also mentioned 
that she will be going to Memphis, Tennessee in March at the 
invitation of the President of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, 
Congressman John Tanner (D-TN).  Lightheartedly, she said that she 
was looking forward to a BBQ in Graceland.  (The last NATO 
Parliamentary Assembly session took place in Oslo in May 2009 and 
the next session will take place in Riga, Latvia from 28 May to 1 
June 2010.) 
 
Domestic Politics Issues: Cracks in the Red-Green Coalition 
------------------------------ 
¶8. (SBU) Solberg was disappointed that the Red-Green Stoltenberg 
 
government won reelection, but noticed that there are internal 
battles within the coalition.  She said that necessary financial and 
budget "cutbacks will be very hard for this coalition" and that the 
government will experience problems keeping the balance sheet in 
order as less oil money will be available in the next few years. 
She looked forward to the 2011 midterm local elections, predicting 
that fundamental issues like immigration, sick leave reform and 
competitiveness for Norwegian industry would be key issues.  Sick 
leave figures in Norway are steadily increasing to some of the worst 
levels in Europe, and PM Stoltenberg has a great challenge in 
alleviating this without upsetting the labor unions.  Solberg said 
that competitiveness of Norwegian business and industry is another 
issue that will continue to worsen.   There is low unemployment and 
wages have increased every year since 2005.  "Where is Norway's 
competitive advantage?" asked Solberg.  Solberg was concerned that 
R&D investment and university funding are not as good as they should 
be due to the current government's funding priorities. 
 
Conservative Party vs. Progress Party 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Ambassador asked about the relationship between the 
Progress Party and the Conservative Party.  Solberg explained that 
although the working relationship is now good, there had been 
"longstanding difficulties."  Former Progress Party leader Carl I. 
Hagen, who still works as an external advisor for the party, had as 
his stated mission to completely replace the Conservatives as the 
party of the right.  Furthermore, she said that the Conservatives 
have had to be, and must continue to be, careful in their 
relationship with FRP as the Conservative Party's constituents are 
divided as to whether they want to work with the Progress Party or 
not.  The two parties share a desire for lower taxes and a 
friendliness toward private industry, but clash on two key issues: 
(1) the Progressives are an "expenditure party" that wants to spend 
more government (oil) money on social services, and (2) the way the 
Progressives talk about immigrants is highly problematic.  Some 
Progressive Party politicians speak about immigrants using group 
terminology, and the Progressives' nationalistic tendencies are 
viewed with alarm by many Conservative Party voters.  She also noted 
that the Conservatives and the Progressives just had, combined, 
their best election result ever, and they only received 40% of the 
vote.  Therefore, to be in the majority, they must cooperate with 
the smaller parties in the center of the political spectrum, many of 
whose voters are also highly suspicious of the Progressives, and who 
might cooperate in a minority government with the Conservatives but 
not a majority government with both the Conservatives and the 
Progressives. 
 
Immigration 
----------- 
¶10. (SBU) Solberg then went on to speak energetically about 
immigration, explaining how Norway in the period between 1974 to 
1976 had open borders, whereas today labor immigration from Eastern 
Europe (Poland and Lithuania in particular) and immigrants that 
enter through family reunification and asylum make up the vast 
majority of new immigrants (Comment: Note that in Norway, about 50% 
of all immigrants are asylees/refugees.  End Comment.)  She also 
touched upon the issue of cheap labor from Eastern Europe, stating 
that over 100,000 people had come to Norway over the last five 
years, and that this has caused insecurity in the market for 
low-skill and low-paid jobs, much to the labor unions' frustration. 
She also touched upon the problems that first generation immigrants 
have in adjusting to living within Norwegian society, and the issue 
of forced/arranged marriages, which she characterized as "a big 
issue." 
 
Defense / Afghanistan / Iran 
---------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) The Ambassador asked about the Conservatives' view on 
Afghanistan.  It is the Conservatives' view, Solberg said, that 
Norway needs a larger army in the long term-"at least another 
brigade."  Afghanistan is an example of the fact that Norwegian 
troops are stretched too thin and where the government clearly 
prefers providing other types of assistance.  Solberg said that the 
government's Afghan policy, which involves increased funding for 
development and civilian assistance, is troublesome.  The 
government, trying to make sure that the "sacred, political" one 
percent of GNP goes to Overseas Development Assistance, drives its 
decision to commit funding to training the Afghan national police, 
but not enough to training the Afghan army. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Solberg said that Iran is not debated much in the 
Norwegian public because there is no national political "clash" on 
the issue; it is more an issue discussed among academics.  She added 
that she thought that it important to get the UN, as well as China 
and Russia, on "our side" in terms of a coherent Iran policy. 
 
Educational Exchange / Entrepreneurship 
--------------------------------------- 
¶13. (U) The Ambassador aired a few ideas that could strengthen the 
 
relations between Norway and the U.S.  Bringing back funding for 
Norwegian student's Freshman Year in American colleges would be one 
excellent way of stimulating educational exchange.  Solberg 
explained the policy behind the GON withdrawal of funding for 
Freshman Year study abroad, saying that it could take a while to 
achieve any change since the level of education in Freshman Year did 
not match the Norwegian criterion for first year of college.  She 
emphasized the need for more educational exchanges: "Youths today 
were born after the fall of the Berlin Wall and have little or no 
knowledge of recent history like the Kosovo war or even 9/11." 
Thus, future generations need to be better educated.  The 
trans-Atlantic connection is weakened and needs to be strengthened, 
she said. 
 
¶14. (U) The Ambassador informed Ms. Solberg about the 2010 
Presidential Entrepreneurship Summit where Norwegian minority 
entrepreneurs would be invited to attend.  Solberg noted that 
encouraging entrepreneurship among minorities was something she had 
worked on when she was a cabinet minister from 2001 to 2005. 
 
 
WHITE