VZCZCXRO9631
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHNM #0964/01 3411625
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 071625Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY NIAMEY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5504
INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 1706
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0321
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0222
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME 0014
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 0020
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NIAMEY 000964 
 
SIPDIS 
AIDAC 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, EEB/TPP/MTAA/ABT, AND AF/PDPA 
PLS PASS USAID AFR/WA FOR PHUBBARD, TLAVELLE, KTOWERS 
OFDA/W FOR ACONVERY, CCHAN, FSHANKS, MSHIRLEY, JMCINTOSH 
FFP/W FOR JBORNS, JDWORKEN, RHUDSON, SGILBERT 
ACCRA ALSO FOR AFR/WA LFRANCHETTE 
DAKAR FOR RDAVIS AND ZSEMUNEGUS 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
ROME FOR US MISSION 
BRUSSELS FOR USAID PBROWN 
NEW YORK US MISSION USUN 
NSC FOR CPRATT 
 
E.O.  12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR PGOV EAID SOCI NG
SUBJECT:  Niger:  Food Insecurity Continues to Deepen 
 
Ref:  a) Niamey 813    b) Niamey 862    c) Niamey 948 
 
NIAMEY 00000964  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Evidence continues to accumulate that Niger is 
facing a serious food insecurity crisis between now and the next 
potential harvest in September 2010.  Reporting from the field 
continues to confirm poor, minimal, or no harvest in many villages. 
Pasturage is virtually non-existent in the pastoral zone.  The 
Minister of Livestock and Animal Industry is asking for 
international donor assistance.  It is fairly clear that there is a 
serious methodological flaw in the Government of Niger's (GON) 
harvest assessment.  Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) is reporting 
increasing depth and breadth of high food insecurity.  End summary. 
 
Post-Harvest Assessment Methodology Seriously Flawed 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
¶2. (SBU) Ref B reported on the GON Ministry of Agricultural 
Development's pre-evaluation of the 2009/10 agricultural season and 
provisional results.  Further discussions with experts and 
knowledgeable insiders reveal how truly "provisional" the results 
are.  The report states that potential stalks of cereal grain are 
enumerated in August and September.  This would be adequate in a 
season when rains are sufficient and continue until the end of 
September.  In many parts of Niger they did not continue, and it is 
clear that many of these stalks counted in August did not mature in 
late September.  These same experts suggest that the 2009 harvest 
easily could be below the three million metric ton mark, or less. 
This has not happened since 2004. 
 
Cereal Production Likely Worst in Recent Years 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶3. (SBU) If the cereals production is three million metric tons, and 
the population is 15.29 million (per the Population Reference Bureau 
estimation for mid-2009), the total grain availability from 
production would be 196 kg per person versus the 10-year average of 
252 kg and very close to the 195 kg and 197 kg per person in 2004 
and 2000, respectively.  It is clear this meager harvest was very 
poorly distributed over Niger with significant numbers of villages 
having little or no production. 
 
Pasturage Unusually Poor 
------------------------ 
¶4. (SBU) In Niger cereal harvest is only one of the many 
determinants of food security.  FEWS data show that the pasturage 
deficit is near an all-time high with only 33 percent of the 
estimated requirement available after two bad years.  Very little of 
this is in the pastoral zones.  This in part explains the falling 
prices of animals versus cereals.  Livestock constitutes an 
important constituent of livelihood security.  The Minister of 
Livestock and Animal Industry, in a report published in the 
GON-owned daily newspaper "The Sahel," detailed the depth of the 
problems confronting the livestock sector and appealed to the 
international donors to assist Niger.  General failure of the cowpea 
and groundnut crops will further deprive farmers of cash to buy 
cereal. 
 
Survey in Six Districts Confirms Serious Problems 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
¶5. (SBU) After the early October field assessment, the Embassy 
Niamey Food for Peace Officer (FFPO) requested partnered NGOs to 
provide a rapid assessment of the food security situation in their 
districts (departments) of operation.  In six districts of Dosso, 
Tahoua, and Zinder Regions (two each) surveys of 480 households in 
48 villages conducted in October 2009 concluded that 67 percent of 
the households reported their harvest to be either bad or very bad. 
More than 77 percent reported three months or less of their food 
needs covered with 16 percent indicating no stocks at all.  30 
percent of all households have already reduced food consumption from 
 
NIAMEY 00000964  002 OF 002 
 
 
three meals a day to two and 16 percent of the total is only 
consuming one meal per day.  57 percent of the households report 
rationing food through reduced amounts being prepared for 
consumption.  70 percent report the animal fodder situation as poor. 
 (Comment: Although the limitations of the survey are recognized, it 
represents one more snapshot reflecting a very early deterioration 
of the current food security situation.  Like the other information 
provided in this message, however, it does add to the total picture. 
 End comment.) 
 
OFDA Confirms Alarming Deficits in Maradi, Elsewhere 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
¶6. (SBU) OFDA conducted an in-depth situation assessment in early 
November in the regions of Maradi, Zinder, and Diffa (ref C).  One 
interesting highlight reported a regional official in Maradi willing 
to risk reporting that five of the seven districts in his region 
were experiencing "alarming deficits."  A visit to one of the 
districts not reported as alarming produced a women's association 
indicating a harvest of only one month's supply of cereal.  Maradi 
is not usually included in the regions reported as being at serious 
risk, as all of the attention seems to be on Zinder and Diffa. 
 
FFP Team Visit Further Verifies Acute Stress 
-------------------------------------------- 
¶7. (SBU) The FFP team from USAID/Washington and USAID/WA Dakar, with 
USAID/Niger FFPO and Assistant FFPO, conducted an eight-day field 
trip to visit NGO partner MYAP (multi-year assistance programs) 
projects and simultaneously assess the food security situation.  The 
FFP team visited 21 villages in seven districts in three regions. 
In all sites visited, the residents described a very poor harvest 
and very limited access to food.  The team found that in Goure 
district of eastern Zinder region the harvest was no more than 10 
percent of anticipated normal production. 
 
UNOCHA Reports Poor Pasturage and Diffa Deficit 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶8. (SBU) The semi-monthly bulletin of UN OCHA reports serious 
deficit of pasturage in Diffa and Tahoua regions as well as a 90 
percent cereal deficit in Diffa.  The OCHA report notes that NGOs 
are responding with increasing support for cereal banks and cash for 
work activities. 
 
Latest FEWS Reporting Raises Level of Concern 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶9. (SBU) The FEWS Regional Food Security Alert of November 25 
reports on the West Africa Region, but has a few noteworthy comments 
on Niger, including the observations that: 
 
-- If Government policies restrict cereal flows, poor 
agriculturalists could face reduced cereal availability, high prices 
(2005 crises levels), and locally extreme food insecurity; and 
 
-- From April, declining food stocks, rising cereal prices, and 
falling livestock prices will reduce household purchasing power and 
high food insecurity will spread to the poor in deficit agricultural 
households in Niger.  (Comment:  There are reasons to suggest these 
scenarios will unfold more rapidly than FEWS is currently 
predicting.  End comment.) 
 
Allen