VZCZCXRO6876
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHMV #0877/01 3371926
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 031926Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY MONROVIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1492
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MONROVIA 000877 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM SOCI KPAO LI
SUBJECT: LIBERIA: OPPOSITION WINS SENATE BY-ELECTION RUN-OFF 
 
REF: A) MONROVIA 570 B) MONROVIA 691 C) MONROVIA 776 
 D) MONROVIA 821 E) MONROVIA 833 F) MONROVIA 841 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY.  The opposition Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) 
convincingly won the Montserrado County senatorial by-election in a 
second crucial test for the National Elections Commission (NEC). 
The ruling Unity Party (UP) lost the election despite heavy 
financial backing and support from four candidates who failed to 
make the second round.  Embassy observer teams found the run-off 
better organized than the first round, but technical and procedural 
problems remained.  The Embassy issued a press release praising the 
NEC and workers on a successful election, and congratulating 
Senator-elect Geraldine Doe-Sheriff.  The conduct of this election 
is likely a precursor to the 2011 presidential elections.  We expect 
both the UP and CDC, Liberia's two strongest parties, to use the 
intervening period to draw in support from smaller political parties 
and other important constituencies, such as the youth vote.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) Geraldine Doe-Sheriff of the CDC won Montserrado County's 
November 24 Senate by-election run-off.  The final tally released by 
NEC Chairman James Fromayan at a November 26 press conference showed 
Doe-Sheriff winning 56 percent of votes cast (or 58,384 votes), 
while Clemenceau Urey of the ruling UP won 44 percent (45,864 
votes).  Doe-Sheriff's by-election win follows her November 10 
first-round election victory (Ref E) in which she failed to gain the 
required plurality for outright victory.  The NEC also reported 
105,800 ballots cast (22 percent voter turnout) in the November 24 
run-off.  Voter participation was again low, but slightly higher 
than in the first round (20 percent turnout). 
 
POLITICAL STARS, FIRST-ROUND LOSERS RALLY AHEAD 
OF RUN-OFF 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶3. (U) Most political forces divided over which candidate to back in 
the run-off.  Only the Liberty Party (LP) and its first-round 
candidate Darius Dillon offered complete backing to the CDC's 
Doe-Sheriff.  Four candidates who failed to make the run-off 
endorsed the UP's Urey, including Alhaji Kromah of the All Liberia 
Coalition Party and three independent candidates.  Wilson Tarpeh, 
first round candidate of the Alliance for Peace and Democracy, did 
not support Urey despite his party leadership backing the UP 
candidate.  Former President Taylor's National Patriotic Party (NPP) 
also split, though his wife, Bong County Senator Jewel 
Howard-Taylor, rallied to Doe-Sheriff.  Early reports that the 
Women's Legislative Caucus backed the female CDC candidate were 
later countered by UP female legislators' public pro-Urey 
declarations. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Both candidates held rallies that drew large crowds thanks 
to the presence of President Sirleaf and former CDC presidential 
candidate, soccer star George Weah.  Sirleaf appeared with Urey at 
rallies in the core areas of UP support, Monrovia's suburbs. 
Doe-Sheriff and Weah focused their efforts on appearances in the 
CDC's strongholds of central Monrovia and on Bushrod Island, home to 
many of the region's poorer residents who are particularly 
disenchanted with the slow pace of improved living standards under 
the Sirleaf government. 
 
VOTER TURNOUT AGAIN LOW 
----------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Locally based International Foundation for Election Systems 
staff told emboff that turnout is typically low in Sub-Saharan 
African by-elections, but several poll workers encountered by 
Embassy observers blamed low turnout on voter apathy and increasing 
disenchantment with the slow pace of economic recovery since the end 
of the civil war.  In radio interviews, registered voters attributed 
their lack of interest to elected legislators' failure to make good 
on promises made by politicians during the 2005 campaign.  Indeed, 
Liberians increasingly view representatives elected since 2005 as 
unresponsive to constituent needs, preferring life in Monrovia or 
visits to U.S.-based constituents over maintaining regular personal 
contacts with country-based constituents.  While a minority of 
legislators is actively involved in home constituencies, many 
Liberians believe that their legislators' actions have failed to 
directly impact voters' daily lives. 
 
RUN-OFF BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT NEC STILL LACKING 
CAPACITY 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶6. (U) The NEC initiated an invigorated voter education campaign 
along with an added day of training for poll workers before the 
run-off.  Observers again witnessed minor procedural and technical 
problems at many polling locations, but unlike in the first round, 
election materials were on hand for on-time opening of polling 
places.  Poll workers showed a better understanding of voting 
procedures and a more customer-friendly attitude toward voters. 
Officers of the Liberian National Police ensured that voting passed 
without violence.  Many poll workers and police reported to 
 
MONROVIA 00000877  002 OF 002 
 
 
observers that they had spent the previous night at the polling site 
to protect the voting materials delivered the evening before. 
 
¶7. (U) The Embassy issued a press release on December 1 praising 
Montserrado voters, the NEC, poll workers and police on a successful 
election, and congratulating Senator-elect Geraldine Does-Sheriff. 
While noting that "some procedural problems remained," the statement 
said Embassy observers witnessed "a free and fair electoral process 
that was absent of fraud." 
 
ELECTION DEFEAT A WAKE-UP CALL FOR RULING PARTY 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The defeat of the president's UP in heavily populated and 
ethnically diverse Montserrado County indicates her party's 
political weakness, despite the availability of state resources, 
heavy financing, a recent merger with two prominent political 
parties, and Sirleaf's enduring star power.  The UP reportedly spent 
more money during the campaign than the CDC, yet still failed to 
win.  Privately many party stalwarts found Urey unimpressive and 
lacking political charisma.  Soon after the election, UP Chairman 
Charles Clarke publicly chastised party representatives in 
government for giving jobs to diasporans and not taking care of the 
party faithful. 
 
¶9. (SBU) CDC officials trumpeted the defeat of the ruling party as 
"a referendum on the [UP] by the Liberian people" even though the 
by-election was only held in Montserrado County.  George Weah hinted 
during a radio interview on election day that he would win the 
presidency in 2011.  There were follow-up reports of CDC youth being 
incited against the NEC and campaign remarks underscoring the 
sensitive "Country/Congo" divide in pre-election rhetoric (Ref F). 
The Ambassador met with Weah on November 23 and urged him to call 
for peaceful conduct at the polls.  She also stressed the need for 
all parties to put aside divisive rhetoric. 
 
¶10. (SBU) COMMENT:  Liberian electoral law has not required 
registration of new voters since the 2005 election, leaving those 
who reached voting age in the interim and those who have recently 
returned disenfranchised.  Urey's failure to connect with poorer 
urban voters and George Weah's effective mobilization of youth 
forces is a wake-up call for the president's party on the importance 
of expanding its base beyond political and economic elites.  The 
start of ongoing registration of voters by the NEC, which will 
enable greater youth participation in by-elections occurring before 
the 2011 general election, is the necessary first step. 
 
THOMAS-GREENFIELD