VZCZCXRO5272
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #3387 3361343
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021343Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9233
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
RHMFIUU/HQ USNORTHCOM
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS MEXICO 003387 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/MEX, WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PINR MX HO
SUBJECT: MEXICO HEDGES ON HONDURAN ELECTIONS 
 
¶1. (SBU)   Summary:  The GOM has generally preferred to react 
to events to Honduras as part of the larger voice of regional 
organizations such as the Organization of American States or 
the Rio Group.  At another such gathering of Latin leaders, 
the November 30 Iboamerican Summit, surrounded by 
counterparts from opposing camps on the recent elections in 
Honduras, President Calderon attempted to walk a careful line 
between the two sides.  He declined to outright reject the 
elections as had Brazil, but rather expressed concern about 
whether the elections were free and fair and pressed for 
compliance with the conditions of the San Jose Agreement, 
including the short-term reinstatement of Honduran President 
Manuel Zelaya.  Mexican Foreign Ministry officials hedged a 
bit more privately recognizing the elections as a "factor 
that merits consideration" as discussions over Honduras move 
ahead.  We should continue to explain to Mexico our views on 
Honduras but not expect it to assume a strong leadership role 
given its desire not to clash with some Latin American 
neighbors more firmly aligned with Zelaya.  End Summary. 
 
Elections Not Enough 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Before the November 29 elections, President 
Calderon cautiously told Mexican daily "El Universal" that 
"he would wait for certain restoration of Honduran 
constitutionality before recognizing a President-elect." 
During the November 30 Iboamerican Summit in Portugal, 
President Calderon stressed that celebrating free elections 
would not be sufficient to reestablish constitutional order 
in Honduras; the international community must also see 
through the rest of the steps of the San Jose Accord.  This 
would include President Zelaya's short-term reinstatement 
until the January inauguration of the new President-elect. 
President Calderon did not officially recognize 
President-elect Lobo.  He further described the absence of 
international observers in the elections as "disgraceful." 
(Note. The Embassy later pointed out to the Foreign Ministry 
that international monitors did, in fact, observe the 
election, and that Mexico had declined to send observers. 
End Note.) 
 
 
SRE Offers More, Measured Nuance 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU)  The Foreign Ministry's (SRE) Deputy Director 
General for South American Affairs, Victor Arriaga, 
acknowledged that Mexico's presidency of the Rio Group 
largely complicated its ability to take a definitive position 
on Honduras, including the recent elections.  Mexico viewed 
the elections as insufficient.  It remained committed to full 
reinstatement of constitutional rule and full compliance with 
the San Jose Accords including allowing Zelaya to take office 
until January.  At the same time, Arriaga described the 
elections as a factor that merited serious consideration by 
the international community in discussing a resolution to the 
crisis there given the peaceful nature that defined them and 
the significant turnout. 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Comment.  Mexico's hedged approach on Honduras is 
very much reflective of the caution that often defines its 
overarching foreign policy.  Mexico would like to be 
perceived as a leader but is very averse to alienating either 
the U.S. or key Latin Americans on important issues.  In this 
instance, Brazil and the U.S. are lined up on two different 
sides when it comes to assessing the contribution the recent 
elections make to a solution in Honduras.  Calderon clearly 
wants to avoid alienating either camp.  Instead, without 
rejecting the elections, Calderon described them as 
insufficient and repeated the mantra of respect for the 
constitutional order and compliance with the San Jose 
Accords.  Mexico hopes the upcoming Honduran congressional 
debate on the elections will further advance a resolution to 
the crisis in Honduras.  In the meantime, it is likely Mexico 
will continue seek to take a careful approach on debates over 
controversial factors such as the recent elections.  End 
Comment. 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
PASCUAL