VZCZCXRO9511
PP RUEHGI RUEHRN
DE RUEHLGB #0835/01 3411455
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 071455Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6490
RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0331
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP 0127
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KIGALI 000835 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO DEPT OF AGRICULTURE 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: ECON EAGR ETRD PREL EAID AU RW
SUBJECT: RWANDAN COMPREHENSIVE AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM 
(CAADP) POST-COMPACT REVIEW 
 
REF A: KIGALI 747, B: KIGALI 781 
 
KIGALI 00000835  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (U) SUMMARY:  On December 6, 2009, the African Union/New 
Partnership for Africa's Development (AU/NePAD) held a Comprehensive 
Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) post-compact review 
of Rwanda's 2009-2012 Agriculture Sector Investment Plan to raise 
agricultural productivity and reduce food insecurity.  The AU/NePAD 
provided an overall endorsement of the Plan's technical soundness 
and alignment with CAADP principles, as well as some recommendations 
for further analysis and improvement.  Other stakeholders, including 
regional economic communities, the International Food Policy 
Research Institute (IFPRI), Food and Agriculture Organization of the 
United Nations (FAO), several Ministers of Agriculture from 
throughout the continent, and Rwanda's Agriculture Sector Working 
Group, participated in the review and provided support and 
recommendations.  As the first country to sign a CAADP compact in 
2007 and to now submit to a rigorous, African-led technical review 
of its post-compact plan, Rwanda has once again established its 
leadership in advancing the CAADP process and provided a model for 
the continent. 
 
¶2.  (U) On December 6, 2009, the AU/NePAD convened key stakeholders 
to undertake a CAADP post-compact review of Rwanda's 2009-2012 
Agriculture Sector Investment Plan to raise agricultural 
productivity and reduce food insecurity.  The review included input 
from CAADP Pillar Institutions, the Common Market for East and 
Southern Africa (COMESA), IFPRI, FAO, several Ministers of 
Agriculture from throughout the continent, and Rwanda's Agriculture 
Sector Working Group.  The review will inform a post-compact 
strategy for Rwanda that includes the mobilization of additional 
resources in support of the Plan and sets a precedent for 
implementation of CAADP compacts throughout Africa. 
 
¶3.  (U) The review began with a presentation of Rwanda's Investment 
Plan by the Ministry of Agriculture.  The Plan identifies the 
investments necessary to implement Rwanda's Strategic Plan for the 
Transformation of Agriculture (PSTA II) and is organized around four 
program areas: intensification and development of sustainable 
production systems; support to the professionalization of producers; 
promotion of commodity chains and agribusiness development; and 
institutional development.  The Plan is valued at 848 million 
dollars, with a revised estimated financing gap of 325 million.  The 
Government believes a fully funded Investment Plan can deliver eight 
to nine percent growth in the agriculture sector, thereby putting 
Rwanda on a path to achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 
of halving poverty and hunger by 2015. 
 
¶4.  (U) The AU/NePAD endorsed the Plan and commended the Government 
for its technical soundness.  The review found the Plan well aligned 
with the goals and objectives of CAADP.  The PSTA II, which provides 
the strategic direction for the Investment Plan, underwent extensive 
stakeholder consultation and peer review, making mutual 
accountability a recognized strength of the Plan.  The AU/NePAD 
recommended that the Government further clarify the role envisioned 
for the private sector in the Plan's implementation, including 
through possible public-private partnerships and alliances; design 
Qthrough possible public-private partnerships and alliances; design 
comprehensive programs across ministries that have roles in 
contributing to the reduction of food insecurity; and work with 
COMESA, the East African Community (EAC), and other regional 
economic communities to capture opportunities presented by regional 
markets. 
 
¶5.  (U) IFPRI provided an analysis of recent trends in Rwanda's 
agricultural sector and sought to assess the impact of the Plan's 
proposed investments on long-term growth and poverty reduction 
targets.  Recent trend agricultural sector growth is higher than 
pre-compact levels but remains below the sustained rates necessary 
to achieve PSTA/CAADP (about 6 percent) and MDG (about 9 percent) 
targets.  Unlike the Government's forecast, IFPRI's analysis 
suggests that even a fully funded Investment Plan would only bring 
about the required long-term growth required to realize the poverty 
MDG by 2020, rather than by 2015.  IFPRI recommended further 
analytical work to evaluate poverty and vulnerability trends, as 
well as to establish relationships between agricultural growth, 
household-level poverty, and food security.  Due to lack of data, 
IFPRI was unable to estimate the likely distributional impact of the 
Investment Plan and thus its effects on household-level poverty. 
 
¶6.  (U) The CAADP Pillar Institutions expressed general satisfaction 
with the Plan and offered recommendations for the Government as it 
enters the implementation phase.  Recurring themes included greater 
 
KIGALI 00000835  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
engagement with the private sector, an enhanced focus on regional 
markets, attention to capacity development, and the importance of 
tracking key indicators to inform decision-making.  Consistent with 
IFPRI's recommendations, it was also suggested that data on 
household welfare, productivity, land quality, and nutrition be 
collected to inform development, disaster response, and safety net 
programs.  The Pillar Institutions recommended that consideration be 
given to the specific constraints faced by vulnerable groups, 
including women; transfers of productive assets to the very poor; 
and focus on value chains that benefit the poor and have 
considerable nutritional benefits. 
 
¶7.  (U) The FAO Investment Center was asked to provide an assessment 
of the Investment Plan's operational realism.  FAO called attention 
to the importance of appropriate phasing of investments and the need 
to build human and social capacity before implementing certain 
aspects of the plan.  Questions were raised about Rwanda's 
absorption capacity at national, local, and community levels if the 
Investment Plan is fully funded.  FAO did not receive access to the 
models and data that informed the costing of the various programs 
identified in the Plan and was therefore unable to undertake a 
cost-benefit analysis of the proposed investments.  However, FAO is 
ready to undertake such an analysis once it receives the necessary 
information. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) COMMENT: As the first country to sign a CAADP compact in 
2007 and to now submit to a rigorous, African-led technical review 
of its post-compact plan, Rwanda has once again established its 
leadership in advancing the CAADP process and provided a model for 
the continent.  Lessons from the Rwanda experience will be shared 
widely to inform the further development of a model for CAADP 
post-compact review.  Finally, while preparation time was short, 
this first-ever technical review of a CAADP post-compact investment 
plan firmly established the existence of African capacity to lead a 
rigorous review whose results can credibly inform decisions to 
invest in country-led plans. 
 
SYMINGTON