VZCZCXRO7862
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHUB #0723/01 3381344
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 041344Z DEC 09
FM USINT HAVANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4969
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
RUCOWCV/CCGDSEVEN MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCOGCA/COMNAVBASE GUANTANAMO BAY CU PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCE/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 000723 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CCA AND WHA/PD 
STATE FOR DRL CNEWLING 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV CU
SUBJECT: CUBA: CIVIL SOCIETY FULLY IN FAVOR OF IMPROVING 
U.S.-CUBA TIES 
 
REF: A. HAVANA 592 ("GOC SIGNALS +READINESS TO MOVE 
        FORWARD,") 
     ¶B. HAVANA 629 ("BLOGGER SPOILING FOR A FIGHT WITH 
        THE AUTHORITIES") 
     ¶C. HAVANA 684 ("BLOGGERS BEATEN BUT NOT DETERRED") 
     ¶D. HAVANA 660 ("CUBAN INFORMATION BLOCKADE") 
     ¶E. HAVANA 704 ("CUBA UNLEASES MOB ON BLOGGERS") 
 
HAVANA 00000723  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  There is widespread consensus among Cuban 
civil society that improving relations between the United 
States and the GOC will strengthen the cause of freedom in 
Cuba.  While skeptical that the GOC is capable of leading the 
process, civil society leaders urged U.S. policy makers to 
look beyond GOC policy for evidence of improvements in the 
human rights situation on the island.  End Summary. 
 
CIVIL SOCIETY FULLY IN FAVOR OF IMPROVING RELATIONS 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Civil society leaders in Cuba are nearly unanimous 
in their positive appraisals of the recent efforts by 
Washington to improve relations with the GOC through direct 
talks on issues of mutual concern and the easing of 
restrictions on travel, remittances, and trade.   Leaders 
hope that this process will continue and broaden, and that it 
might lead to greater government-to-government engagement on 
other issues.  They particularly praise the ability of the 
United States to seek greater relations without sacrificing 
its human rights agenda or contacts (Ref A).  This report is 
based on a series of September to December 2009 meetings in 
Havana with a wide variety of civil society leaders. 
 
BETTER TIES WILL ADVANCE REFORM 
------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Opposition leaders believe that closer 
government-to-government relations will shore up reformers in 
the GOC, currently stymied by the top-heavy leadership. 
Increased working-level contacts now may provide the 
foundation for stronger relations in the future as the top 
GOC leadership changes over time.  Further, many contacts 
have noted that the GOC actively employs Cuba-U.S. 
hostilities as a scapegoat for everything from economic woes 
to social unrest.  They hope that improved relations will 
weaken this excuse and hasten change by further exposing the 
regime's failures.  "Whatever you do, don't make the mistake 
of giving them a pretext to reverse what is happening," a 
dissident economist warned us. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Many civil society leaders also urge a faster and 
broader approach to increasing links between the two 
countries.  The bulk of civil society leaders support 
allowing unfettered travel to and from the United States and, 
although the majority supports unilaterally lifting the 
embargo, they also understand that it is a significant point 
of leverage.  In general, they applauded the administration 
for asking the GOC to take the next steps to show that it is 
serious about improving conditions for its people and mending 
relations with the U.S. 
 
PATIENCE IN THE RANKS, RESULTS WON'T COME OVERNIGHT 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) In spite of their positive assessments, most civil 
society leaders do not expect significant improvements in 
Cuba over the short-term.  They lament that little has 
changed since the transition from Fidel to Raul Castro, and 
they point to the endurance of government institutions like 
the military and the Communist Party, and their ability to 
preserve the status quo even after the inevitable changes 
that nature will force at the top.  Still, they maintain 
optimism that the work of Cuban activists, together with a 
U.S. strategy of engagement with the GOC, in addition to 
continued support of civil society, may produce results in 
 
HAVANA 00000723  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
the mid-to-long term.  As one civil society leader noted: 
"Fast change usually means violent change.  We are working 
for non-violent change.  This means we have to take a long 
view of our work." 
 
LOOK FOR SIGNS OF CHANGE OUTSIDE THE GOC 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) In addition, several opposition leaders have 
cautioned against only looking for evidence of positive 
change in government policy, with one well-regarded dissident 
stating flatly that "this government is incapable of 
responding" to Washington,s calls for changes in the human 
rights arena.  They point instead to efforts by diverse civil 
society groups to get away with social activism and expanded 
expression of ideas.  Groups that have not traditionally 
embraced politics, such as bloggers, cultural performers, 
academics, religious and ethnic leaders and journalists, they 
claim, are being increasingly successful in expanding the 
space for freedom of expression. "These are the third rails, 
the most vibrant sectors of society right now," a former 
publisher and editor told us. 
 
BLOGGERS ON THEIR WAY ALREADY 
----------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Many civil society leaders point out that bloggers 
have successfully created from scratch a public forum to 
carry out unheard-of discussions and government criticism, in 
spite of GOC displeasure and significant limits on Internet 
use on the island.  When asked about why the GOC allows the 
bloggers to carry on, one contact noted: "They do not allow 
us this space, we have taken it."  In spite of setbacks (Ref 
C), the blogger community has continued to push the 
boundaries of free expression in this new arena and, in doing 
so, encouraged others to speak out. 
 
NEW VOICES SPEAKING OUT 
----------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) In addition to the bloggers, artists, musicians, 
journalists and academics have also begun to speak more 
openly about their frustrations with the current status quo. 
Some of Cuba's most famous actors and performers have come 
out openly over the last three months with criticism against 
GOC restrictions, particularly on access to information. 
Even official newspapers have started allowing more pointed 
criticism of the government -- and the journalist whose 
October column was deemed too critical to publish (Ref D) 
continues to rail against government bureaucracy.  The 
Catholic Church too gets away with not-too-subtle criticism 
in homilies and publications. 
 
 
COMMENT: UNPRECEDENTED CONSENSUS, 
             UNPRECEDENTED OPPORTUNITY 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Cuba's notoriously fractured civil society is united 
in support of better U.S.-Cuba relations, and cautiously 
optimistic about the future.  It's not so much that they 
expect the GOC to change its ways, as much as it is their 
belief that U.S. rapprochement will erode further the 
legitimacy of the GOC while strengthening the hand of those 
who support change inside and outside the regime.  "The 
(Cuban) government was not ready for (President) Obama," an 
Afro-Cuban leader told us, "it has no idea what to do." 
Cuban civil society members seem confident that, despite 
setbacks, they will succeed in continuing to carve out public 
spaces for free expression in the face of ongoing repression 
at the hands of the government. 
FARRAR