VZCZCXRO4789
RR RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #1455/01 3580552
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 240552Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1079
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0349
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 2289

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 001455 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON ETRD PTER TI
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR VISITS KHUJAND:  CONFLICTING VIEWS 
 
REF: USHANBE 1434; DUSHANBE 1211 
 
DUSHANBE 00001455  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  During a December 16-18 visit to Khujand, the 
capital of the Sughd region in northern Tajikistan, Ambassador 
met with local government officials, OSCE representatives, and 
several NGOs.  Topics covered a range of issues but focused on 
the economy, energy, upcoming elections, agriculture, and 
trafficking in persons (TIP).  Viewpoints varied between 
government and non-government organizations and painted an 
overall picture of some economic improvements and successes in 
agricultural reform, but doubts about upcoming elections and the 
viability of the Free Economic Zone.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
REGIONAL ECONOMY BIG ON FRUIT, SHORT ON JUICE 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) During a December 16-18 visit to Khujand, the capital 
city of the Sughd region in northern Tajikistan, Ambassador met 
the governor of Sughd region and the mayor of Khujand.  Despite 
the global economic crisis, both painted a positive picture of 
the local economy:  a 5.7% growth in local GDP and the 
achievement of 2008's economic production level in just the 
first 11 months of 2009.  They touted the recently established 
Free Economic Zone (FEZ) as reason for optimism, but a lengthy 
list of problems from the zone's administrator and requests for 
development aid for the FEZ by the governor underscored the 
large amount of investment the FEZ would require to become 
successful. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Energy is a nagging problem for the Sughd region as in 
the rest of Tajikistan.  Local officials said there was 
round-the-clock power in Khujand, but electricity is rationed 
outside the city.  Both the governor and the mayor cited the 
lack of natural gas supply from neighboring Uzbekistan as 
another area of concern.  OCSE representatives said coal is 
increasingly used for heat in underpowered areas and even in 
Khujand city. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) The local administration claimed the planned Roghun 
hydropower plant would solve all of Tajikistan's energy woes and 
spoke of broad support for the project across the country.  A 
discussion with OSCE representatives painted a different 
picture.  They reported growing skepticism among the population 
towards the Roghun plan, as well as weariness due to 
overexposure to propaganda in the media.  Even if the Roghun 
plan met expectations, the benefits would not be seen for some 
time.  Meanwhile, even local authorities expressed concern over 
energy supply to the agricultural sector, which requires power 
for irrigation and represents a huge portion of the local 
economy (Ref A). 
 
 
 
AGRICULTURAL REFORM MAKING SOME PROGRESS 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Over 70% of Tajikistan's population is employed in 
agricultural industries and the sector makes up 95% of the 
exports from the Sughd region.  Recent reforms gave farmers the 
right to choose which crops to grow, but implementation has been 
difficult to measure.  Data provided by government officials, if 
accurate, points to some success.  The best indicator is the 
reduction of area planted in cotton, which has traditionally 
been the subject of forced cultivation to meet government 
quotas.  The acreage of cotton in Sughd has dropped from 63,000 
hectares in 2008 to 54,500 hectares in the most recent 
government survey.  An increase in exports of vegetables and 
dried fruits is further evidence of increased crop 
diversification.  This year, total exports of dried fruits and 
vegetables reached a reported 150,000 tons, up from 130,000 tons 
last year.  Most of these exports go to Russia and Kazakhstan. 
The governor pointed to these figures as proof that farmers are 
free to choose which crops they grow based on market pressures. 
 
 
 
LAND REFORM:  ABIDING BY THE LAW OF THE LAND 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) The other hot button issue in agriculture is land 
reform.  Progress has been made in the legislative side to give 
control of land rights to the farmers, but there are still many 
hurdles in implementing the new laws.  Some USG programs have 
 
DUSHANBE 00001455  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
had great success in this area.  NGO Saodat has been working in 
partnership with the USAID land reform effort since 2005 to 
provide legal consultation to new land owners.  The organization 
helps clients defend their rights against unfair application of 
debt or charges of improper land usage.  In the last year, 
lawyers working for Saodat won 88 cases in Tajik courts, helping 
over 8,000 farmers protect their rights.  Saodat presents judges 
with solid documentation and references current law, both 
delivered with a persistence that has overcome judicial 
reluctance to approve farmers' land use rights.  Judges who have 
too many cases overturned lose their seat on the bench, which 
serves as an excellent incentive for fair, law-based decisions. 
Saodat has 37 cases pending and also deals with civil rights and 
family rights cases. 
 
 
 
FORCED LABOR IN COTTON - STEPS FORWARD, STEPS BACK 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Another key issue for the United States in agriculture 
is the use of forced labor, including students pulled from the 
classroom, to work the cotton harvest.  The governor of Sughd 
region reported that thanks to reduced cotton planting, no 
students were needed for this year's cotton harvest; this is in 
line with the recent presidential order forbidding the practice. 
 However, when pressed about the use of government employees to 
pick cotton, the governor commented that this practice was "no 
secret" and passed it off as a patriotic act on the part of the 
participants.  He further said students requested to work on the 
harvest by picking on Sundays, (the only day that schools are 
closed), but said that he refused to allow it.  The governor 
predicted that with further reductions in cotton planting next 
year, civil servants would not be required either -although 
their patriotism might bring them to the fields anyway. 
 
 
 
UPCOMING ELECTIONS BRING ... SHRUGS 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Upcoming parliamentary elections are causing barely a 
stir in Sughd region, though local officials paint a picture of 
many active political parties participating in a fair and open 
election.  The governor said Sughd is prepared for free 
elections and that all political parties have access to free 
airtime on regional television.  The mayor of Khujand echoed 
these remarks and said that all parties have begun organizing 
nomination parties. 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Representatives from OSCE had a different take on 
elections, noting that many political parties complained about 
poor access to the media and could not afford to purchase 
airtime.  The NGO Fourth Power, affiliated with the BBC and 
promoting a free press, echoed these concerns.  While there are 
no reports of blatant action against opposition parties, many 
complained about the prohibitive cost of registering candidates. 
 The OSCE office director cited voter apathy as a concern. 
Reasons for voter indifference ranged from lack of faith in the 
political process and the potential for real change to 
distraction with much more pressing concerns such as the supply 
of energy.  OSCE representatives noted strong contenders among 
opposition parties and expressed confidence that one of the 
strongest, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), 
had enough support to easily win seats in parliament if the 
results were not falsified. 
 
 
 
ENVIRONMENTAL AWARENESS UP, AS IS EXTREMISM 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Environmental awareness is on the rise in Sughd 
region, according to OSCE representatives. One group, "Green 
Patrol", boasted 324 permanent members as well as strong 
programs in schools.  Activities such as beach clean-ups and 
Earth Day events frequently draw large crowds.  OSCE 
representatives reported that with growing environmental 
awareness, the issue of radioactive tailings in Sughd region had 
gained attention.  There are an estimated 53 million tons of 
these tailings in the region, remnants from Soviet era mining 
and processing.  Contaminated sites are not contained or 
controlled and remain open to human traffic and animal grazing. 
There is little consensus on how to approach the problem, but 
the Prime Minister asked the IAEA for assistance at a June 
conference in Geneva.  Since then, two IAEA representatives have 
 
DUSHANBE 00001455  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
visited Sughd and there is talk of setting up a joint OSCE/IAEA 
office to begin dealing with the problem. 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) Religious extremism is an issue of concern in the 
region, but the mayor refused to comment on the activity of the 
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) (Ref B).  The mayor would 
only say that security organizations are on top of the situation 
and that religious extremism would be quickly suppressed. 
Discussions with the OSCE provided more insight, as they were 
preparing to launch a study on religious extremism, led by the 
group "Youth and Civilization".  The project will study the 
roots of extremism with the goal of finding ways to cut the 
problem off at the source.  The project has the support of the 
local government. 
 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) Comment:  It's no surprise that officials were 
tightlipped about internal security and overly optimistic about 
the economy in Tajikistan's "all is well" political culture. 
Local officials generally refrain from giving any hint of bad 
news to a foreign official to avoid the perception of any 
trouble.  Comments from interlocutors elsewhere in Tajikistan 
have agreed with the OSCE's view that people already are tired 
of the Roghun project propaganda.  We await the results of a 
British-funded IFES pre-election poll to confirm whether voter 
apathy is widespread or is more a northern phenomenon.  End 
Comment. 
GROSS