VZCZCXRO1811
RR RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #1443/01 3551242
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 211242Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1060
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0346
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 2268

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 001443 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG ECON PGOV EINV TI
SUBJECT: GIVE ME YOUR LUNCH MONEY - TAJIK GOVERNMENT USES THE HARD 
SELL TO PUSH SHARES IN ROGHUN HYDRO-ELECTRIC DAM 
 
REF: DUSHANBE 1364; DUSHANBE 1348 
 
DUSHANBE 00001443  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The Tajik government has launched an 
expansive campaign to browbeat the public into buying shares in 
the long-delayed Roghun hydro-electric project, which it 
considers to be a "life or death" initiative to achieve energy 
security.  The President summoned the Tajik press corps to line 
up their support, and pro-government media have aired 
testimonials of Tajiks who have committed to buy Roghun shares 
when they go on sale January 6.  The initiative likely will put 
only a tiny dent in the $770 million needed to complete Roghun's 
first two turbines (let alone the $3 billion or more needed to 
finish the whole project), but is part of a larger strategy to 
build nationalist sentiment and rally the public in support of 
Rahmon's national projects.    End summary. 
 
 
 
ALL ROGHUN, ALL THE TIME 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) Following Uzbekistan's November announcement that it 
would pull out of the Central Asian Unified Power System, 
leaving Tajikistan to cope with its energy issues on its own 
(Ref A), Tajik officials and state media have run a full court 
press to pressure individuals and organizations into coughing up 
cash for the Roghun hydro-electric station, which the government 
offers as the sole salvation to chronic energy woes.  Roghun, on 
which construction began in 1976 and continued desultorily 
during the Soviet period before stalling out in the Tajik civil 
war, would generate 3,600 Megawatts, nearly doubling 
Tajikistan's domestic energy production capacity.  On November 
16 President Rahmon announced that shares would be issued for 
Roghun and called on Tajik citizens to purchase them.  He 
ordered banks to facilitate Roghun stock purchases in branches 
throughout the country, starting January 6, 2010, when shares 
would be available for amounts ranging from 100 to 5,000 somoni 
($23 - $1136).  On December 2, the President called on all Tajik 
families "except for those most vulnerable," to buy 3,000 somoni 
(approximately $680) worth of Roghun shares.  Wealthy Dushanbe 
Mayor Mahmadsaid Ubaidulloyev called on workers to spend one 
month of their wages on Roghun stocks. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Post estimates that even if every "non-vulnerable" 
Tajik household answered the President's call to give 3,000 
somoni to Roghun, the government would raise $330 million, well 
short of the $770 million it says is necessary to bring the 
first turbines online, let alone the $3 billion or more needed 
to complete the whole project.  Actual donations to Roghun will 
be much lower, however.  With the average Tajik salary only $71 
per month (and per capita income only $25), few private citizens 
have the expendable income to buy even a fraction of what the 
government is asking.  Even if they wanted to, there is no way 
for foreign investors to get in on the deal.  Rahmon proudly 
emphasized that Roghun shares would be offered only to Tajik 
citizens, guaranteeing that only they would reap the benefits of 
a completed dam. 
 
 
 
RAHMON CALLS ON JOURNALISTS TO SUPPORT ROGHUN DRIVE... 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) On December 7 Rahmon summoned 250 Tajik journalists to 
a closed-door meeting and launched an extended pitch for the 
government's efforts to sell Roghun shares to the public. 
Rahmon told journalists that while they "can criticize the 
government, they should not oppose the government's pursuit of 
strategic goals," including energy projects.  Rahmon asked them 
"not to be on the sidelines in the work to gather materials and 
stocks for the construction of the republic's energy giant.... 
This issue is one of life and death for our country." 
 
 
 
...AND BRAGS ABOUT CENTRAL ASIAN FIGHT CLUB 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) A Tajik journalist who attended the meeting told Emboff 
that Rahmon signaled that he expected them to participate in a 
national mission to achieve energy independence and blamed the 
country's current energy woes on Uzbekistan.  Rahmon underlined 
his personal involvement in the struggle by bragging that he got 
in a brawl with Uzbek President Islam Karimov at a CIS Summit in 
 
DUSHANBE 00001443  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
Sochi in 2004.  As both men grabbed each other by the collars, 
former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma pulled the dueling 
presidents apart.  Rahmon claimed to have had the last word: 
"Anyway, Samarkand and Bukhara will be ours again one day!"  No 
recording equipment was permitted at the meeting, and none of 
the 250 Tajik journalists in attendance reported this story. 
After a Russian journalist broke the story in a Moscow 
newspaper, a pro-government Tajik paper denounced the Russian 
journalist.  Tajik authorities also showed that Uzbekistan 
threatened Tajikistan at least as much as Tajikistan threatened 
Samarkand and Bukhara.  They claimed that a man possibly acting 
on behalf of Uzbekistan had tried to kill the Mayor of 
Tursunzade in October, allegedly to disrupt fundraising for 
Roghun; Tursunzade is the home of Talco. 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Tajik journalist we spoke with said that this was 
not the first time the government had summoned journalists to 
ask them to support its agenda.  When in February Russian 
President Medvedev made a statement supporting Tashkent's 
position regarding regional hydropower development, the Head of 
the MFA's Information Department called a meeting with 
journalists to tell them, "you are welcome to write articles 
against Russia."  After the Uzbek ambassador to Tajikistan 
announced Uzbekistan's decision to withdraw from the Central 
Asian grid in November, the MFA again summoned journalists to 
advise them, "you can go ahead and attack the Uzbek ambassador." 
 
 
 
OLYMPIC CHAMPIONS AND GEOGRAPHY TEACHERS:  EVERYONE WANTS A SHARE 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Since Rahmon called on citizens to cough up cash for 
Roghun, media have tripped over themselves to report every new 
pledge made by every Jamshed Q. Public.  State television has 
broadcast daily vignettes about simple Tajik citizens who intend 
to buy multiple Roghun shares.  A geography teacher, for 
example, appeared on the nightly news to announce she will buy 
5,000 somoni ($1,136) of shares.  State media interspersed 
similar interviews with pensioners and other prospective stock 
buyers with footage of the ongoing Roghun construction. 
National electricity company Barqi Tojik has dispatched 
representatives to schools to indoctrinate children on the 
importance of supporting the Roghun project and the virtues of 
now obligatory energy-efficient fluorescent bulbs.  Barqi Tojik 
already has delivered its presentation in Dushanbe, Hissar, 
Khujand, Isfara, and Rudaki districts. 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Print media, too, is awash with Roghun stock purchase 
commitments.  Tajikistan's only Olympic medalist, Judo expert 
Rasoul Boqiyev, committed to a 2,000 somoni stock purchase on 
December 15.  The same day, media reported that the staff of the 
Tajik embassy in London gave two days' salary for Roghun.  Not 
to be outdone, the embassy staff in Washington gave three days' 
salary.  Teachers at the Khujand-based Tajik State University of 
Law, Business and Politics promised two days' wages, totaling 
20,000 somoni ($4,545).  Employees at the joint Canadian-Tajik 
mining operation Aprelevka contributed one day's wages totaling 
30,000 somoni to Roghun, and promised to offer up another two 
days' wages "in the nearest future."  The next day 
Tojiksodirotbonk, a major private bank (and the Embassy's local 
banking partner) announced it would buy $5 million in Roghun 
shares, drawn from its own capital.  Bank management also said 
employees expressed a wish to buy an additional $1 million at 
their own expense.  According to the media reports, the Bank's 
Director would personally contribute $100,000.  He added that 
the Hotel Tajikistan, of which he is part owner, would 
contribute another $2 million.  Tajik Railways has committed 1 
million somoni (227,200 USD). 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) The opposition Islamic Renaissance Party's (IRPT) 
commitment to buy shares was perhaps most striking.  Party 
leader Muhiddin Kabiri reconfirmed his reputation as the 
Government's favorite Islamist opposition politician when he 
said he would contribute the Party's money to help further a 
national priority.  Party contacts report that they have not yet 
decided how many shares to purchase and in fact need to resolve 
whether they may legally purchase shares as a political party. 
No one in the opposition nor in mass media appear to have 
questioned the government's continued operation of the 
state-owned Talco aluminum plant, which consumes over 40% of 
 
DUSHANBE 00001443  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
Tajikistan's energy.  Yet Talco's profits are largely returned 
not to state coffers but to an offshore company controlled by 
the political elite. 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Neither the President nor his family have committed to 
buying shares.  Several major government enterprises also have 
failed to announce a stock purchase.  Neither Orion Bank, Somon 
Capital, the national airline, Barqi Tojik, nor other major 
banks and businesses controlled by the government have announced 
stock purchases.  Asia Plus reported that Talco's "top managers 
and engineering personnel" committed to buy shares worth one 
month of their salaries, but so far Talco itself has not 
committed company funds. 
 
 
 
ROGHUN CAMPAIGN IN CONTEXT 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) This is not the first time the Tajik government has 
employed Soviet-style drives to achieve "national goals."  Nor 
is it the first stock campaign for a hydro-electric dam.  In 
1998, the government issued shares in the Sangtuda-1 dam. 
Individuals who purchased these shares, however, never received 
proceeds from their investment.  (The dam was completed in 2009 
with heavy Russian investment.)  After the Dushanbe medical 
university burned down in 2008, academics all over the country 
"volunteered" to give up two days' salary; academics we knew who 
lost this salary said they were never consulted.  Urban and 
government employees routinely must participate in the Soviet 
tradition of what is tongue-in-cheek termed 
"voluntary-obligatory" public service to clean streets.  When 
the President hosted an international conference on Hanafi Islam 
in October, he reportedly ordered Dushanbe restaurants to feed 
visiting delegations for free, and warned of severe consequences 
should the guests have any complaints about the food.  And, of 
course, local government officials dispatch state employees to 
pick cotton to meet national "targets." 
 
 
 
COMMENT:  TAJIKISTAN, INC. 
 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) The Roghun shares campaign is a demonstration that 
Tajikistan's leadership unquestioningly assumes that the people 
exist to serve and glorify the state and can be employed as 
state property and deprived of their earnings at the President's 
whim.  This is in large part the inheritance of Soviet rule, but 
has older antecedents too.  It is the mentality on display when 
high officials, such as Deputy Foreign Minister Yuldashev, argue 
there is no forced labor in the cotton sector, because the 
nation has a tradition of collective effort.  This attitude 
among senior government officials will challenge development and 
reform efforts as long as the Soviet generation hangs on to 
power.  However, the generation that replaces them may not be an 
improvement; a collapsed education system and a corrupt 
political culture could well produce future leaders who are no 
better able to manage the situation, nor have any more 
democratic vision for Tajikistan. 
 
 
 
¶13. (SBU) Comment Continued:  If the Tajik government actually 
thinks that by shaking down geography teachers it can raise 
money to complete the Roghun project, it is badly in need of a 
reality check.  More than likely, the goal of the President's 
campaign is to strengthen national unity under his leadership 
and whip up nationalism so that anger sparked by the inevitable 
winter power outages is directed at Tashkent, not Dushanbe. 
Many individuals and businesses have rushed to announce their 
donations of one or two days' salary, to curry favor and preempt 
calls for larger donations.  Despite Rahmon's insistence that 
only Tajik citizens could invest in Roghun, it seems likely that 
if a major foreign donor materialized in Dushanbe tomorrow, he 
would be happily accommodated.  Rahmon's meeting with 
journalists underlines the government's view that the media 
should fall in line to support "national" initiatives and has a 
chilling effect on independent journalists.  Though independent 
newspapers often print mild criticism of the government, it is 
telling that no Tajik papers reported on Rahmon's bizarre 
braggadocio regarding his shoving match with Karimov.  End 
comment. 
GROSS