VZCZCXRO1408
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHDR #0871/01 3550251
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 210251Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9148
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 3737
RUEHJB/AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA 3042
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 0010
RUEHLGB/AMEMBASSY KIGALI 1513
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA
RUEHMS/AMEMBASSY MUSCAT 0141
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 1473
RUEHDS/USMISSION USAU ADDIS ABABA
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA//J3
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000871 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E JTREADWELL; INR/RAA: FEHRENRIECH 
STATE PASS TO USAID, USTDA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG ECON ETRD SOCI PGOV EPET EIND TZ
SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR'S MAIN ISLAND FACES MAJOR POWER CRISIS 
 
REF: (A) 08 Dar es Salaam 839 (B) 08 Dar es Salaam 444 and previous 
 
¶1. SUMMARY:  On December 9 there was a melt-down of the power cable 
terminus connecting the main Zanzibar island of Unguja with 
Tanzania's national power grid.  The broken cable supplies almost 
all the power used by the island, resulting in near total failure of 
electricity for the entire island, which holds about 65 percent of 
the archipelago's population.  Repairs are underway, but the crisis 
could stretch on for a few more weeks, causing havoc to the islands 
water supply and economic life.  END SUMMARY. 
 
BACKGROUND 
---------- 
¶2. The Zanzibar archipelago gets 70 percent of its electric power 
needs from mainland Tanzania through a submarine cable, and the rest 
(mostly the island of Pemba) is thermally generated.  Between 70 and 
75 percent of the electricity generated is domestically used while 
less than 20 percent goes to industry.  Fuel wood, charcoal and 
kerosene are widely used as sources of energy for cooking and 
lighting for most rural and urban areas. 
 
¶3. Zanzibar's main island (called "Unguja") is connected to 
Tanzania's National Grid through submarine cable (132kV) from 
Ras-Kiromoni on Tanzanian Mainland to Ras-Fumba Zanzibar.  The cable 
was completed in 1980.  According to the cable manufacturer, the 
expected life of the cable is about 30 years.  However, since its 
first commissioning, the cable had been working efficiently until it 
experienced a catastrophic failure on May 21, 2008.  During that 
day, the termination point of a group of nodes called "the red 
phase" had been completely burnt off and left the Island without 
electricity for the period of nearly a month, until June 19, 2008. 
 
CURRENT SITUATION 
----------------- 
 
¶4. On December 10, 2009, a severe rainstorm caused a problem on 
Zanzibar's grid that resulted in much of the island going off line 
throughout the day.  However, later there was a melt-down similar to 
the 2008 incident where the main power cable comes ashore outside of 
Fumba.  This time the "yellow phase" nodes burnt out, causing severe 
damage on the termination point of the cable.  Moreover, the 
porcelain housing also was completely broken.  Within seconds, all 
of Zanzibar had a total blackout. 
 
¶5. Unlike last year, however, when at least two weeks were spent 
trying to track down spare parts and existing companies that might 
be able to work on a system long obsolete and no longer 
manufactured, this time experts from the South African firm that 
eventually fixed the problem in 2008 happened to be on Zanzibar 
doing routine maintenance.  Nonetheless, the South African team 
still has to go back to South Africa to get equipment and gear. 
 
STATE-OF-PLAY 
------------- 
 
¶6. Over the December 12 weekend, officials were saying Unguja would 
be without power for about three weeks.  Senior managers at ZECO 
(Zanzibar Electricity Company) unofficially claimed to MCC that one 
of the three needed spare parts has already arrived in Zanzibar and 
the others have been located and are expected "any day now."   The 
South African team hired to maintain and now fix the equipment is 
still working on site at Fumba, and it expects to have things fixed, 
with a target date of eight working days (i.e. December 22).  Target 
dates are missed with some frequency in this part of the world, 
however, but the information we are getting is fairly consistent. 
 
¶7. Meanwhile, a team of experts from South Africa is in Zanzibar 
investigating the cause of the breakdown. In collaboration with the 
Ministry of Water, Works, Energy and Land and ZECO, the team has 
also conducted a meeting to discuss the steps to be taken to 
normalize the situation.  Work to replace the damaged part of the 
cable will depend on availabiliq v1 ud_Qlz[;wQpossible. 
 
ECONOMIC IMPACT 
 
DAR ES SAL 00000871  002 OF 003 
 
 
--------------- 
 
¶8. The timing couldn't be worse for the tourism-dominated Zanzibar 
economy, as Christmas/New Year is peak season for the mostly 
Europeans who travel there.  The Zanzibar Tourism Association (ZATI) 
issued a limp press release to try to stymie the hemorrhage of hotel 
cancelations.  Zanzibar Affairs Officer was on-island December 13 
and observed that many stores and restaurants in the main town of 
Zanzibar were closed down.  Many businesses, public entities and the 
rich have generators.  However, it is one thing to run one for a few 
hours' black-out and it is another to try to budget for a continuous 
outage that could last for weeks and even months.  A few businessmen 
with whom ZAO spoke said that they would cut their losses now. 
 
¶9. In addition to tourism, economic sectors adversely affected by 
the power outage are agriculture and small scale businesses. 
However, the largest wage payer in Zanzibar is government, and the 
blackout will severely reduced the government's income as tax 
revenues and financial resources are drained in order to purchase 
bulk fuel and soak up shortages and closures.  The demand for fuel 
and cold storage has already been noticeable.  Most gas stations 
were only open for a few hours a day and few restaurants serve 
anything other than tea or coffee.  Some fishermen have stopped 
bringing their catch into market.  It is unclear what impact the 
crisis has on neighboring Pemba, which depends entirely on imported 
diesel fuel.  Of note but no loss to many, the state-controlled 
newspaper "Zanzibar Leo" shut down its presses for awhile. 
 
THE REAL PROBLEM IS WATER 
------------------------- 
 
¶10. Under normal circumstances, the existing water supply network (a 
continuing refurbishment project for Japan) provides almost all 
urban areas and about half of rural areas access to the water supply 
network, which runs at about capacity most days.  Water comes from 
bore holes and a limited number of natural springs.  In rural areas 
off the network, water comes from individual wells.  Water for the 
network is pumped into overhead tanks from where the water flows 
from gravity.  There are 74 such pump stations on Unguja. 
 
¶11. The May-June 2008 power outage stretched generator capacity to 
the limit to provide power to water pumps, health facilities and 
social services.  During the crisis, the GOZ installed 14 generators 
at key pump stations supplying about half the population for 12 
hrs./day.  UNICEF in cooperation with DANIDA (Danish Intl 
Development Agency) later provided 12 back-up power generators to 
reactivate water pumps out of service since the beginning of the 
melt-down.  This resulted in about 80% of people having regular 
access to water by the second week of the crisis. 
 
¶12. Currently, there is a brewing scandal that not all of the 
generators left by donors in 2008 have been located.  Moreover, much 
of the generator fuel paid for by donors and stockpiled for just 
such a crisis is missing.  A team of the UN's Disaster Assessment 
and Coordination Mechanism (UNDAC) is on the ground now.  The city 
seems to be being fed with rationed amounts of water, but the 
situation remains unclear in rural areas.  Even middle class people 
in Stonetown's suburbs have resorted to paying for home delivered 
buckets of water, costing up to a few dollars a day. In 2000, the 
annual income per capita was US$220. 
 
LOOKING TOWARD THE FUTURE 
------------------------- 
 
¶13. As early as last summer, the Chief Minister confided to ZAO that 
his biggest worry was another cataclysmic melt-down of the island's 
sole power source before the MCC project was underway.  Because of 
regular, ongoing increase in power demand, and given the old age and 
life expectancy of the cable, the Chief Minister has cause for 
concern.  Despite the effort to repair the damaged part of the 
cable, ZECO told MCC that it is still very much worried similar 
incidents might occur to finish off the remaining "blue phase" node, 
which has not experienced a fault since 1980. 
 
¶14. Now more than ever, Zanzibar will depend on MCC's Second 
Interconnector Submarine Cable project.  The solicitation for the 
submarine cable work was out on the street weeks before this latest 
problem, and bids are due the first quarter of CY2010.  We estimate 
 
DAR ES SAL 00000871  003 OF 003 
 
 
that fabrication will take up to 18 months after contracts are 
negotiated and signed.  Installation comes next, but that is fairly 
quick in comparison - a few months counting time to ship the 
material to Zanzibar.  The timing is dependent on which firm wins, 
of course.  In comparison, the Norwegian-financed cable project for 
Zanzibar's second island of Pemba has taken more than two years so 
far, with cable-laying starting only December 5. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶15. Interestingly, the Minister of Water, Public Works, Energy and 
Lands (and President Karume's brother-in-law) Mansour Himid's stock 
of public esteem has actually risen.  Unlike during 2008 when the 
Zanzibari Government was widely criticized for inaction (President 
Karume was off-island for the duration of the crisis, and local 
officials were not forthcoming with information), Mansour has been 
on the radio and TV (including on BBC) from the outset of the 
current crisis.  He has been telling Zanzibaris that this problem 
will be for the long haul, and locals are responding stoically. 
However, a few ethnic Indian Stonetown shopkeepers told ZAO that now 
might be the time they retire and move their assets and families 
off-island.  Idle chat among the cafe class has been about when and 
where people plan to move their families to avoid the October 2010 
election, long expected to be violent absent any political 
reconciliation.  Ethnic Indian shopkeepers, a shrinking minority in 
Zanzibar, have long bore the brunt of looting and election-related 
violence, including as recently as the last election in 2005. 
 
LENHARDT