VZCZCXRO9300
RR RUEHIK
DE RUEHBM #0813/01 3411038
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 071038Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0141
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 000813 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CE ASCHEIBE 
 
SENSITIVE, SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV RO
 
SUBJECT:  DEWEY BEATS TRUMAN!  INCUMBENT BASESCU DEFIES EXIT POLLS 
AND WINS RE-ELECTION 
 
BUCHAREST 00000813  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
REF. BUCHAREST 809 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Defying pre-election surveys and most exit polls, 
incumbent Traian Basescu has won re-election in a hotly contested 
campaign.  Against expectations, turnout in the runoff was very 
high, beating the first round by almost five points.  Though there 
were no systematic problems, minor electoral incidents were reported 
nationwide.  Print and electronic media continued to race for the 
bottom with clear bias and lack of professionalism.  After 
prematurely claiming victory, Geoana's team is now suggesting it may 
file formal claims of electoral fraud against Basescu. End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Following an extremely close and at times vicious campaign, 
incumbent Traian Basescu now seems certain to have won the December 
6 presidential runoff with a margin of 0.7 percent or about 70,000 
votes.  With 99.13 percent of precincts reporting as of 11:00 am on 
December 7, The Central Electoral Bureau (BEC) reported 50.37% for 
Basescu and 49.63% for challenger Mircea Geoana of the Social 
Democratic Party (PSD).  With only some 90,000 votes to go, it seems 
almost impossible that Geoana could close the gap. 
 
¶3. (U) Turnout reached 58%, with 10.23 million casting ballots out 
of 17.65 million eligible voters.  Contrary to expectations, this 
was significantly higher than the 53.5% turnout in the November 22 
first round of elections.  It was the first time in the 
post-Communist era that turnout in the runoff had exceeded that in 
the first round, and the first time Romanians re-elected a sitting 
president.  Voting was generally peaceful, although TV stations 
carried images throughout the day of jammed polling places and minor 
altercations between voters or with police and election officials. 
 
¶4. (U) Exit polls released as the polls closed at 9:00 pm on 
election night had shown Geoana in the lead, with the four major 
polling firms (all with ties to PSD) giving him between 50 and 51.6 
percent.  By the time all four firms had released their final exit 
poll figures at 11:30 pm that margin had shrunk by approximately 
0.4% across the board.  The CSOP poll actually showed Basescu 
leading by 50.4% vs. 49.6%.  At least one Bucharest daily actually 
went to press overnight with headlines that Geoana had won, but most 
papers simply reported that he was leading the polls. 
 
¶5. (U) According to media reports, Basescu picked up most of the 
votes which had gone to the Democratic Union of Hungarians in 
Romania (UDMR) in the first round, as well as nearly 60% of those 
who had not voted in the first round.  Geoana won a majority of 
those voting previously for Crin Antonescu of the National Liberals 
(PNL), as well as independent candidate Sorin Oprescu and 
ultraconservative nationalist Corneliu Vadim Tudor. 
 
¶6. (U) There were a number of minor electoral irregularities around 
the country, but no evidence of any systematic fraud.  The national 
police reported 55 investigations related to the election, in which 
33 individuals were fined.  Most involved attempted double voting or 
simple drunk and disorderly behavior.  Several polling places were 
closed temporarily over allegations that election officials 
themselves had voted multiple times, and a small number of precincts 
ran out of ballots. 
 
¶7. (U) Regionally, Basescu scored best in Transylvania and western 
Romania, cresting at over 60% in Cluj and several other cities with 
large Hungarian populations.  Geoana did similarly well in the more 
rural southern and eastern parts of Romania, but his margins were 
lower in the urban areas that he did win.  Geoana seems to have won 
the city of Bucharest by barely one percentage point. 
 
¶8. (U) On December 5 and 6 electronic media continued to violate the 
statutory blackout on political activities immediately prior to and 
during the election, and the National Audiovisual Council's (CNA) 
response was ineffective.  A number of TV stations broadcast footage 
December 5 of alleged campaign bribery by Basescu supporters.  On 
election day several TV stations - including the primary public 
station TVR1 - aired commentary throughout the day with commentators 
explicitly criticizing Basescu, while at least two TV station 
websites published preliminary results before the polls closed at 
9:00 pm.  Many stations projected that Geoana had won based only on 
local exit polls, without waiting for official results.  In one 
case, CNA was unable to stop the on-air violations because some 
council members were not available to vote on taking action.  CNA 
did manage to gain a quorum to impose sanctions on Radio Romania 
Actualitati (national public radio) for broadcasts that urged 
support for Geoana.  The station claimed that its broadcast had been 
pirated with this segment, and an investigation is underway. 
 
¶9. (SBU) COMMENT.  Election night itself was somewhat bizarre. 
Despite the closeness of ultimately inaccurate exit polls showing 
his victory (the highest margin being 51.6% to 48.4%), Geoana chose 
to declare victory only minutes after the polls closed.  Basescu 
soon followed suit claiming he had won, though in a somewhat less 
ostentatious manner.  The BEC will make its next announcement at 
 
BUCHAREST 00000813  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
2:00 pm local time (7:00 am EST), though it is not clear whether it 
will actually certify Basescu's victory at that time.  It is an open 
question whether potential Geoana appeals or fraud charges will 
delay the final outcome. 
 
GITENSTEIN