VZCZCXRO7778
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHBM #0807 3381249
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 041249Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0134
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS BUCHAREST 000807 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE EUR/CE FOR ASCHEIBE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI RO
SUBJECT: ROMANIA ELECTIONS: ETHNIC HUNGARIANS TILT TOWARD 
GEOANA BUT AVOID OUTRIGHT ENDORSEMENT 
 
REF: BUCHAREST 799 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  The ethnic Hungarian party UDMR announced 
between rounds of the Romanian presidential race that it 
would support the PNL-PSD nomination of Sibiu Mayor Klaus 
Iohannis as Prime Minister, but stopped short of joining PNL 
in endorsing PSD candidate Mircea Geoana for the December 6 
presidential runoff.  The move is a compromise solution for 
UDMR party leaders who lean toward the front-runner Geoana as 
a ticket back into the perks and patronage of government, 
while also realizing that many ethnic Hungarians prefer 
incumbent President Traian Basescu (PDL) - who cannot be 
counted out yet.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The umbrella coalition Democratic Union of 
Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) announced on December 2 that it 
will join the National Liberal Party (PNL) in supporting the 
"ethnic minority candidate" Sibiu Mayor Klaus Iohannis as the 
next Prime Minister of Romania.  (Note: If named Prime 
Minister, Iohannis - an ethnic German - would become the 
highest-ranking minority official in post-communist Romania. 
End Note.)  In a compromise of sorts, UDMR stopped short of 
following the PNL in explicitly endorsing presidential 
challenger and front-runner Mircea Geoana of the Social 
Democrats (PSD).  UDMR had ample justification for endorsing 
Geoana: he had supported nominating Iohannis for Prime 
Minister following the collapse of the PDL-PSD coalition 
government in October 2009, and UDMR's traditional ally PNL 
had secured Geoana's promise to continue backing Iohannis in 
exchange for PNL's endorsement of Geoana in the second round 
of elections.  Moreover, Post contacts within UDMR have 
spoken fondly of their four years of collaboration with the 
PSD in the 2004 coalition government of Adrian Nastase. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  On the other hand, by not explicitly endorsing 
Geoana, UDMR leaves the door open to re-entering government 
with Basescu's PDL should the incumbent manage to win 
re-election.  This would also be a hedge with UDMR's ethnic 
Hungarian electorate, with whom Basescu remains very popular 
following numerous visits during his presidency to the 
majority Hungarian counties in Transylvania.  In fact, 
Basescu out-polled Geoana significantly in those areas in the 
first round of elections on November 22.  Former Protestant 
Bishop Laszlo Tokes, a symbol of the 1989 Revolution and a 
UDMR Euro Parliamentarian who is influential among more 
radical ethnic Hungarians, has publicly endorsed Basescu in 
the second round. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Comment.  UDMR needs to go with the winner of this 
election in order to regain the perks and patronage that come 
with participation in government. A hypothetical PSD-PNL-UDMR 
coalition would carry a wide majority in Parliament and could 
govern from a stable position.  On the other hand, a 
hypothetical PDL-UDMR coalition would be less stable but 
would give the Hungarians more clout because UDMR would only 
have to reach agreement with one coalition partner. Faced 
with this difficult choice, the UDMR leadership is cautiously 
betting on the favorite Geoana, while still keeping its 
options open should Basescu defy the odds, perhaps with 
conspicuous help from the 600,000-strong Hungarian vote. 
GITENSTEIN