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RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHWN #0774/01 3361300
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021259Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0048
INFO RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEHWN/AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN

UNCLAS BRIDGETOWN 000774 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM XL
SUBJECT: ST. VINCENT REJECTS NEW CONSTITUTION: VOTERS DASH PM 
GONSALVES' DREAMS OF MAJOR CHANGES TO GOVERNING STRUCTURES 
 
REF: BRIDGETOWN 735; BRIDGETOWN 690; BRIDGETOWN 689; BRIDGETOWN 685 
 
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SUMMARY 
 
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¶1. (SBU) Vincentians voted convincingly November 25 to reject a 
constitutional referendum that would have significantly changed St. 
Vincent's structure of governance.  The surprisingly sharp 56-44 
percent defeat set Prime Minister Gonsalves on his heels and dashed 
his plans to follow the referendum with early elections to extend 
his mandate in office.  Instead, the referendum has reinvigorated 
the previously moribund Opposition New Democratic Party (NDP), 
whose leader, Arnhim Eustace, called for early general elections 
given the lack of confidence expressed by the voters in the Prime 
Minister's leadership.   The Organization for American States (OAS) 
sent a fifteen-member observer team throughout the country's 
fifteen constituencies, and found the referendum to be handled 
freely and fairly.  The governing United Labor Party, which had 
rallied intensely for the passing of the bill, was palpably 
surprised by the result, prompting Gonsalves to rail against 
opposition "scare mongers" who he said poisoned voter opinion on 
the matter.  In rejecting the proposed changes, Vincentian voters 
highlighted a popular uneasiness to changes whose impact was 
unpredictable and, possibly, a growing wariness of Prime Minister 
Gonsalves' ties with Venezuela and Iran and his desire to weaken 
traditional ties with the British monarchy.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
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A VOTE MIRED IN POLITICS 
 
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¶2. (SBU) St. Vincent and the Grenadines' November 25 constitutional 
referendum, which culminated six years of parliamentary and 
political discussion and debate, had been touted heavily by PM 
Gonsalves as a necessary document to "complete" independence from 
the British monarchy and move the country forward democratically 
(see reftels).  During the run up to the referendum, however, the 
reform process became increasingly politicized, with many 
Vincentians coming to view the draft constitution as a pet project 
of Gonsalves' and his United Labor Party (ULP).  Although the 
constitution bill was passed by parliamentary majority in the 
Vincentian General Assembly in September, the debate that ensued 
followed partisan political lines, and became in the end more an 
issue of whether or not voters sided with PM Gonsalves and his 
administration's policies.  Gonsalves himself admitted privately 
that the referendum was as much an indicator of confidence in him 
and his government as it was about constitutional issues, and 
optimistically planned to call early elections had he garnered at 
least 55 percent of the vote. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) The referendum voting itself closely resembled a general 
election, with political party representatives observing at each 
polling station and Gonsalves himself reportedly glad-handing 
voters in various constituencies.  Occasionally, electoral 
officials had to clarify for voters that they were voting for or 
against (via a "yes" or "no" vote) the constitution bill and not 
Gonsalves or NDP leader Arnhim Eustace, or NDP supporter and 
still-influential former PM Sir James Mitchell.  Following the 
final vote tally, which resulted in roughly 56 percent against and 
44 percent in favor of the new constitution, local commentators 
agreed that popular support for the ULP had waned, and that 
Gonsalves himself could find the next general election difficult to 
win.  In his post-referendum address, Gonsalves asserted that the 
referendum and outcome had become politicized, suggesting publicly 
that the voters were comprised largely of NDP supporters and others 
who "succumbed to scare mongering."  Eustace said separately that 
the results showed that the population was against "poor 
governance," and rejected the current government's policies and 
programs. 
 
 
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ELECTORAL PROFESSIONALISM 
 
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¶4. (U) The electoral process itself was deemed to be generally free 
and fair and void of any serious irregularities or abnormalities by 
the fifteen-member OAS electoral observation mission, in which an 
Embassy Poloff participated.  The mission's members were present in 
all fifteen constituencies, and were joined by a smattering of 
local non-governmental organization (NGO), CARICOM, and 
Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) observers.  All OAS 
mission members agreed that Vincentian electoral officials handled 
the day's procedures professionally and legally, and that the 
entire process was sufficiently transparent.  The voters themselves 
were found to be well-versed in their roles and well prepared, as 
order was maintained throughout the day.  Voter turnout was high, 
at about 54 percent, with over 50,000 total votes cast despite 
heavy rains during the day.  The OAS mission itself was 
well-received, with a number of voters telling Poloff that its 
presence was reassuring and welcome. 
 
 
 
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COMMENT 
 
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¶5. (SBU) Given the partisan politics that dominated the referendum, 
its outcome was an obvious blow to Gonsalves and the ULP.  While 
Gonsalves knew that the 66.7% threshold to pass the constitution 
bill was a long shot, he was convinced he would garner a majority 
and had high hopes of winning at least 55-58 percent.  Gonsalves 
blamed the opposition for polarizing the debate, but Gonsalves 
himself had turned to blatant electioneering to boost the "yes" 
vote by rolling out over USD 11 million in cash benefits to 
students, seniors, government workers, and others a month before 
the vote.  Gonsalves' failure to turn out his own base suggests 
that he is vulnerable and may not survive the next electoral cycle. 
Ironically, the only change resulting from Gonsalves' now dashed 
constitutional reforms has been a complete reversal of political 
fortunes for the opposition NDP.  The opposition had been left for 
dead by political observers, but has been revived by the referendum 
and will begin to press its advantage by calling for early 
elections. 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) The reluctance of Vincentian voters to embrace changes to 
existing governing structures will have ripple effects elsewhere in 
the region, where efforts to adopt the Caribbean Court of Justice, 
replace the Queen as Head of State, and alter "first-past-the-post" 
electoral systems will now be quietly shelved.  While Gonsalves' 
ties with Venezuela and Iran may not have been directly at issue in 
this vote, it is likely that his close ties to these countries, 
combined with his aggressive comments about St. Vincent's ties to 
traditional allies (he blasted the UK repeatedly for genocide in 
his Independence Day address), made votes uneasy about the PM's 
intentions and the longer term impact of the proposed changes to 
the status quo. 
HARDT