VZCZCXYZ1524
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBR #1486 3521947
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 181946Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0177
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO

UNCLAS BRASILIA 001486 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL: AECIO NEVES WITHDRAWS FROM PRESIDENTIAL RACE 
 
REF: RIO DE JANEIRO 340; BRASILIA 1250; SAO PAULO 551 
 
¶1.  (SBU) In a press conference on December 17, Minas Gerais 
governor A????cio Neves officially terminated his "pre-candidacy" for 
the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) nomination in Brazil's 
2010 Presidential elections, effectively leaving the PSDB field to 
Sao Paulo governor Jose Serra.  Governor Neves is expected to run 
for the federal senate in 2010, although he has not yet declared 
intentions.  Neves' associates continue to assert that he has no 
interest in being a vice-presidential candidate on Serra's ticket, 
the hopeful expectation of many in the PSDB. 
 
 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais contacts agree that Neves quit 
the race because, having made little ground against Serra in the 
polls and with no sign that PSDB would make a decision on its 
candidate any time soon, he decided that he did not have time to 
pull together the support to make a successful run.  While Sao 
Paulo analysts and PSDB federal deputies in Brasilia told us that 
they believe Neves can be convinced to run as Serra's vice, 
political and journalist contacts in Belo Horizonte closer to Neves 
remain adamant that Neves will not accept any such offer.  A PSDB 
congressional contact confirmed that Neves made inquiries this week 
to confirm whether he would be assured the presidency of the 
Federal Senate if PSDB is able to win enough seats in next year's 
elections. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Comment: In an October meeting with Rio Principal 
Officer, Neves indicated he would force the issue of selecting a 
PSDB candidate by the end of 2009 or early 2010; Serra was widely 
reported to prefer delay in a formal selection until March 2010. 
The persistent strong performance of Jos???? Serra in the polls 
against PT pre-candidate and Lula prot????g???? Dilma Rousseff and 
Neves' 
desire to remain in good standing with his party in the interest of 
his current and future ambitions appear to be factors in his 
decision.  Rio-based analysts have also speculated that Neves' 
withdrawal now affords him the tactical option of re-entering the 
race later as a white knight capable of saving PSDB fortunes should 
Serra's candidacy begin to flounder in early 2010. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Comment continued: Further, although Neves announced his 
intention to run for Senate and a lack of interest in the VP slot 
with Serra, it would not be prudent to discard the possibility that 
Neves might yet be lured into the VP position.  Serra's age and 
Neves'star power (derived from his youthful charisma, relationship 
to the late Tancredo Neves, and popularity in Minas and nationally) 
suggest a possible scenario wherein a PSDB victory in 2010 with a 
Serra-Neves ticket (which polls indicate would be a strong 
one)could be the basis for a deal in which Neves is promised PSDB 
support for his candidacy in the 2014 presidential contest.  End 
comment. 
 
 
 
¶5.  (U) This message was coordinated between Consulate General Rio 
de Janeiro, Consulate General Sao Paulo and Embassy Brasilia. 
KUBISKE