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O R 041105Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0007
INFO ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 0005
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 001402 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV KGHG EFIN EAGR EAID BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL: U/S MACHADO ON GOB'S CLIMATE POSITION GOING INTO 
COPENHAGEN - A POSITIVE FORCE 
 
REF: 09 BRASILIA 1136 
 
(U) THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED AND NOT FOR INTERNET 
DISTRIBUTION. 
 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  Brazilian Ministry of External Relations Under 
Secretary for Policy Vera Machado and her deputy, Special 
Ambassador for Climate Change Sergio Serra, told Charge that Brazil 
is more optimistic about the outcome for the Conference of the 
Parties-15 (COP-15) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate 
Change (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen than they were a month ago.  In the 
last 18 months, Brazil has moved from often being an impediment to 
being a positive force in many areas of the negotiations, most 
notably with its recent announcement of an ambitious (36% to 39%) 
economy-wide reduction in emissions by 2020 compared with business 
as usual.  Brazil openly seeks to play a "bridging" role between 
the developed countries and the developing ones.  The GOB sees the 
U.S. proposal on mitigation actions and that of the Chinese as 
contributing to an improvement in the prospects for success at 
COP-15.  The two critical outstanding issues in their view are (1) 
the need for substantial increase in financing and (2) maintaining 
the architecture set forth in the Bali Roadmap, which has two 
tracks, one for Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol and 
another for developing countries under the UNFCCC.  END SUMMARY 
 
 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On December 2, Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Lisa Kubiske met 
with Brazilian Ministry of External Relations Under Secretary for 
Policy Vera Machado to discuss the Government of Brazil's (GOB) 
position going into Copenhagen UNFCCC COP-15.  Machado was 
accompanied by two of her deputies: Special Ambassador for Climate 
Change Sergio Serra, and Director of the North America Division 
Carlos Abreu.  Science Counselor joined the Charge. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) While Machado was pleased that President Obama would be 
going to Copenhagen on 
 
December 9, she regretted that there would be no overlap with 
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva or many other foreign 
leaders, who would be coming later during the conference.  She 
indicated that Obama's presence when other leaders were there the 
second week would have helped them come to agreement.  She added 
that Brazilian public opinion has been a positive factor in 
developing Brazil's position.  Charge asked about Brazil's views on 
the U.S. position on mitigation, noting that it was a pathway for 
deep cuts and well before 2050, such as 30 percent reduction below 
2005 levels in 2025 and a 42 percent reduction in 2030.  Machado 
demurred, saying that they were going to talk to President Lula 
next week.  However, Serra was more upbeat.  He said that in light 
of the positions announced by the United States and China and 
Brazil he was more optimistic about COP-15 than he had been a month 
ago.  Machado and Serra were accepting of having a political 
agreement at Copenhagen, rather than a legal agreement. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Now that there is movement on mitigation, Serra opined 
that one of the most critical issue for Copenhagen will be fleshing 
out financial support.  He thought that without concrete numbers on 
financing there would be little chance for progress. 
 
 
 
THE BASIC GROUP - MAINTAIN BALI ARCHITECTURE 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Serra discussed the November 26-27 meeting in China of 
the BASIC group (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China).  He 
highlighted that the BASIC group was focused on architecture 
issues.  They wanted to see implementation of the Bali Roadmap with 
its two track approach.  Annex I countries would sign up for a new 
round of binding emissions reductions obligations - and the United 
States too - and the developing countries would agree to 
non-binding Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). 
 
BRASILIA 00001402  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Neither Machado nor Serra had seen the latest draft of a 
BASIC group statement, though they commented that there probably 
would be one prepared and released.  They did not treat a joint 
statement as a major matter for Brazil.  Further, they laughed at 
the prospect of India walking out.  Serra assured the Charge that 
based on a report he had heard from India that they would not do 
so.  Machado joked that Brazil would be there to keep them from 
leaving the building. 
 
 
 
INTERNATIONAL VERIFICATION - FINE WITH BRAZIL 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Serra told Charge that Brazil accepts the idea of 
international verification of mitigation actions, even if those 
actions are taken without international support.  He noted that 
Minister of Exterior Relations Celso Amorim had already declared 
that Brazil is ready for peer review of Brazil's mitigation 
actions.  Serra said that this peer review was consistent with 
monitoring in other international fora, such as with respect to 
human rights.  Nonetheless, Serra emphasized that Brazil's position 
was not shared by some other developing countries.  These others 
countries were putting up a strong resistance to international 
verification for unsupported mitigation actions.  COMMENT.  While 
Brazil is willing to accept international verification, it appears 
that it also can go along without it too and that it isn't 
currently inclined to press hard either way.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
 
PEAK YEAR CONCEPT - 2020 IS TOO EARLY 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) When asked about the use of the peak year concept, Serra 
responded that Brazil viewed 2020 as being too soon to be used as a 
peak year for developing countries.  He appeared less concerned 
about establishing a peak year later on. 
 
 
 
CAP ON THE USE OF OFFSETS - REMAINS UNCLEAR 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Serra said that Brazil - meaning his Ministry of External 
Relations - would like to have a cap on offsets because it wanted 
Annex I countries to make most of their emissions reductions in 
their own countries.  He said that Brazil could envision allowing 
some use of offsets for forest conservation, as a part of a package 
of financing for forest conservation.  In such case, Brazil would 
like to see the majority of the funds come from public financing 
and other sources, and only a smaller portion from offsets.  Serra 
acknowledged that his Ministry's view was not universally accepted 
within Brazil.  Machado pointed out that there was substantial 
pushback within Brazil to this position, especially from the 
governors in the Amazon region who want to tap the funding possible 
from allowing forest offsets.  For now, the idea of imposing a 
ceiling or cap on offsets is something that the Ministry of 
External Relations favors, but which has not been agreed to by the 
rest of the government, much less by other countries with forests. 
 
 
 
BRAZILIAN PARTICIPANTS GOING TO COPENHAGEN 
 
 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Head of the Presidency, Minister Dilma Rousseff, will 
head the Brazilian delegation to Copenhagen.  President Lula will 
attend the second week of the conference during the high-level 
session.  Minister of the Environment Carlos Minc will be there 
throughout with his team, including Director of the Climate Change 
Secretariat Suzanna Kahn and special advisor Tasso Azevedo.  The 
Ministry of External Relations is sending Minister Celso Amorim, 
Director of the Environment Department Luiz Figueiredo Machado, and 
Ambassador Serra.  Under Secretary Vera Machado was not sure if she 
would attend and, if she did, she said it would be just for a short 
period during the high-level session.  It is likely that Minister 
of Science and Technology Sergio Rezende will attend some of the 
conference, and Minister of Mines and Energy Edson Lobao might go 
 
BRASILIA 00001402  003 OF 003 
 
 
too.  The governors from various Amazon states will be bringing 
large delegations to Copenhagen, including Governor Eduardo Braga 
from the State of Amazonas (who is seeking meetings with both 
President Obama and Todd Stern) and Governor Blairo Maggi from the 
State of Mato Grosso. 
 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Brazil has come a long way in the last 18-months and 
mostly in the right direction.  Back then, the GOB was on the 
defensive due to a jump in its already high rate of Amazon 
deforestation.  The GOB concentrated much of its effort on pursuing 
a restrictive view of the "common, but differentiated 
responsibilities principle," i.e., Annex I countries must take on 
obligations for further reductions and for providing financial 
assistance to developing countries, while Brazil, India, China and 
other developing countries had nothing more to do than report on 
their emissions.  Also back then, senior GOB officials told USG 
counterparts that the GOB could not see itself - or other 
developing countries - agreeing to economy-wide or sectoral 
emissions reductions targets even though they were not legally 
binding.  Further, the GOB adamantly opposed offsets and credits 
for forests. 
 
 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Today, the GOB seems confident of its position going 
into Copenhagen and wants to play a leadership role or more 
precisely, play a "bridging" role between the developed countries 
and the G-77.  Brazil is proud that this year it has lowered the 
Amazon deforestation rate by around 40 percent compared with last 
year, to a record low level in the last two decades.  The GOB is 
bringing to the table in Copenhagen one of the most ambitious 
mitigation proposals among developing countries, and this proposal 
includes an economy-wide reduction target.  Despite reluctance from 
the Ministry of External Relations, the GOB is now willing to 
accept the use of offsets to conserve forests. 
 
 
 
¶13.  (SBU) The GOB leadership is investing significant political 
capital in making Copenhagen a success, including having President 
Lula trying to call President Obama and other world leaders to urge 
their personal participation, and going there himself.  Lula and 
his team have been active in trying to produce a positive outcome 
at COP-15, meeting numerous times with French President Sarkozy, 
other European leaders, leaders from Amazon countries, and key 
officials from China, India and South Africa.  Of course, the GOB 
from Lula, to Rousseff, to their senior officials frequently have 
met and discussed climate change with their U.S. counterparts. 
Rousseff is a candidate for president in 2010.  Her role as head of 
the GOB delegation means she could become linked to the outcome 
from Copenhagen - good or bad -in the eyes of Brazilian 
environmentalists.  Also, ex-Environment Minister Marina Silva has 
indicated she is planning to enter into the presidential race. 
This makes environment a more prominent issue in the contest and 
makes it more important for Rousseff, a former Energy Minister, to 
burnish her environmental bona fides. 
 
 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Now, Brazil appears to view the U.S. position, as well 
as that of China's, as contributing to the prospects for success at 
COP-15.  For Brazil, the questions of financing and of the 
architecture of the agreement - i.e., whether Kyoto Protocol 
continues as it has been or is modified - will be the dominant 
issues to be addressed in the two weeks in Copenhagen.  In short, 
Brazil in the last 18-months has transitioned from often being an 
obstacle to a good conclusion at COP-15, to being either not an 
obstacle or, in many key ways, a positive force for success.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
 
 
KUBISKE 
KUBISKE