VZCZCXRO6910
RR RUEHRG
DE RUEHBR #1401/01 3372017
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 032016Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0005
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0001
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0001
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 0003
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001401 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL AF PK BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL ON THE WAY FORWARD IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN 
 
REF: 09 SECSTATE 122731 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:  The GOB's outlook on Afghanistan is 
 
pessimistic, and it is skeptical that additional military 
 
forces can make the situation better.  The GOB nevertheless 
 
believes in the Obama Administration's "good intentions," 
 
and Brazil is willing to participate in Afghanistan's "civil 
 
reconstruction process."  End Summary. 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U) Approximately four hours before President Obama's 
 
December 1 announcement on Afghanistan and Pakistan, Charge 
 
d'Affaires Lisa Kubiske previewed U.S. strategy with Ministry 
 
of Foreign Affairs (MRE) Under Secretary for Asia Roberto 
 
Jaguaribe and sought the GOB's support for U.S. and 
 
international efforts to bring peace and stability to the 
 
region. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (U) Jaguaribe said that the GOB has "a solid belief in the 
 
good intentions" of the USG but is skeptical that additional 
 
military resources will help the situation.  He noted what he 
 
described as "a Catch 22":  The more Afghanistan is seen to be 
 
reliant on U.S. military power, the less he and the United States 
 
are acceptable to the Afghan population.  Yet, without U.S. 
 
military support, Karzai falls.  The trick is finding the right 
 
balance. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (U) Jaguaribe cited 19th Century Portuguese novelist and 
 
diplomat Eca de Queiroz who mocked Britain's "great victory 
 
over Afghanistan," which Queiroz wrote would have to be repeated 
 
every 10 to 15 years.  Charge noted that today the goal of 
 
international forces is not conquest but the contrary, building 
 
the capacity of the Afghan people so that they can defend their 
 
sovereignty.  We are accelerating training of the Afghan National 
 
Security Forces so that they won't need foreign forces, and at the 
 
same time we are significantly increasing civilian resources for 
 
Afghanistan. 
 
 
 
¶5.  (U) Jaguaribe saw as a hopeful sign the interest of the 
 
international community in Afghanistan, noting that India had a 
 
"huge stake" in the outcome there and that Iran "could be helpful 
 
or could be harmful."  He thought it important that the USG consult 
 
 
internationally as widely as possible before taking actions with 
 
respect to Afghanistan.  He said that Brazil had been talking 
 
BRASILIA 00001401  002 OF 002 
 
 
recently with Afghanistan's ambassador to the United States who was 
 
in Brasilia and spoke of opening an embassy, something the GOB 
 
would welcome. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U) Finally, Jaguaribe said that the GOB had some limited 
 
Development, mostly agricultural assistance for Afghanistan. 
 
He said that the GOB is interested in participating in the 
country's 
 
"civil reconstruction process."  Any Brazilian military 
 
involvement in the area is highly unlikely, he added.  (Note: 
Jaguaribe 
 
did not comment on Pakistan.) 
KUBISKE