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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 002205 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR/ACE, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EPET SOCI KDEM KZ
SUBJECT:  KAZAKHSTAN:  NEW POLITICAL PARTY, PIPE DREAM, OR 
OTHER? 
 
ASTANA 00002205  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for Public Internet. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  A Kazakhstani functionary with an 
intriguing resume says he wants to found a Green Party of 
Kazakhstan.  We are unsure if he is a sincere big dreamer, or 
if he might possibly have ties to others who want to 
challenge the current government and curry favor with the 
West.  If nothing else, he seems to be representative of the 
successor generation who are tired of the status quo.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) During the Kazakhstan Investment Forum in New York 
City on November 23, the Vice President of the Chamber of 
Commerce and Industries of Kazakhstan, Serikzhan Mambetalin, 
asked to see the Ambassador privately.  He said he had never 
expected to enter politics, but "now's the time."  He once 
had been a great believer in President Nazarbayev, he said, 
"but it's now time for him to share power and let others do 
something good for the country."  He added that many in 
Kazakhstan think as he does and would like to express their 
political views, "but they have too many obligations" -- 
i.e., have bought into and are beholden to the current system. 
 
SOMETHING TO UNITE SOCIETY 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Asked to describe his own political views, 
Mambetalin said that, if anything, he's "a Green Party type" 
in favor of the environment and social welfare.  He said, 
"This is not the time to focus on sharp political issues. 
It's better to find a common cause that can unite ethnic 
Russians and Kazakhs, Christians and Muslims.  Mambetalin 
suggested that students "have enormous potential but are 
unfocused and, thus, susceptible to Islamic radicalism, 
especially since Kazakhstan has no common ideology to 
consolidate society."  He judged that the current generation 
of young adults has "no memory of the past, nothing that 
grabs their attention.  They need a modern, popular way to 
focus their energy."  Mambetalin said he would like to 
propose a Green Party of Kazakhstan to President Nursultan 
Nazarbayev to support the president's intention to build a 
civic identity for all Kazakhstanis. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Mambetalin emphasized that he wants to found a 
political party, not just an NGO because "NGOs are not 
considered to be serious."  He said he has found "broad 
support for his idea, except at the very top."  For example, 
he said, he pitched his idea in June to then-Foreign Minister 
Tazhin, who allegedly told Mambetalin that he liked the idea 
but warned that it would be rather difficult to approach 
President Nazarbayev with such an initiative.  Mambetalin 
said he never heard back from Tazhin.  When asked if he 
thought he could gain legal registration for a Green Party, 
Mambetalin admitted it would be hard to register a new party, 
and so he might merge his party into the already registered 
Ruhaniyat Party. 
 
"WE MUST BECOME A NORWAY!" 
 
¶6.  (SBU) "What's important," Mambetalin said," is that 
Kazakhstan is at a turning point.  As an oil-rich country, we 
can choose to be a Norway or a Nigeria.  We must become a 
Norway!"  Changing tack, Mambetalin said, "Of course, as a 
Green Party we will have to focus on the north Caspian Sea. 
At a certain point, we will have to raise the danger to the 
environment of drilling in the the ecologically sensitive 
Caspian."  During the investment form session devoted to gas 
and oil, Mambetalin asked U.S. industry executives why they 
had not yet fulfilled their commitment to establish an 
incident-response center at Atyrau, which is the center for 
TengizChrevOil activity.  A Chevron representative replied 
that, in fact, the center is currently being established. 
 
BIO NOTE 
 
ASTANA 00002205  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Mambetalin described his background.  By 
education, he said, he is a medical doctor, but for the past 
seven years he has been working in London as a crude oil 
trader.  Between those two -- doctor and oil trader -- he 
said he had earned an MBA at the prestigeous KIMEP in Almaty, 
had worked for the World Bank for several years, and had been 
an adviser at various times to current Prime Minister Karim 
Masimov, as well as having served as Deputy Chairman for 
Financial Services at Kazakhstan's Postal Savings. 
Mambetalin emphasized that he is "a self-made man" but not 
wealthy, and "not beholden to any oligarchical group."  His 
family still lives in London, but he says is "ready to return 
home." 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶8.  (SBU) While it could well be that Mambetalin is sincere, 
even if a dreamer with a big idea, it seems that several 
things would suggest caution.  First, Mels Yeleusizov, the 
leader of the environmental NGO "Tabigat," officially 
announced his intention to found a Green Party in March and 
established a web site on which people can sign up.  Second, 
Mambetalin's approach to the Ambassador seemed unnecessarily 
secretive.  He insisted on finding an isolated and empty 
parlor in the Harvard Club, where the investment forum was 
taking place, because he wanted to be sure no Kazakhstani 
officials saw him talking to the Ambassador, "especially 
Ambassador (to the United States) Idrissov."  Third, because 
of his time in London, we have to wonder if he might possibly 
have ties to exiled former Prime Minister Kazhegeldin and 
exiled Chairman of BTA Bank Ablyazov, both of whom continue 
to use their considerable ill-gotten financial resources to 
plot "democratic alternatives" to President Nazarbayev, 
mainly for Western consumption.  In fact, the ideals of a 
Green Party might find a certain amount of support in 
Kazakhstan, but it could not come into being, given the 
current political environment, unless it were officially 
blessed -- and we doubt that will happen anytime soon.  If 
nothing else, Mambetalin seems to be representative of the 
successor generation who are tired of the status quo.  END 
COMMENT. 
HOAGLAND