VZCZCXRO3683
OO RUEHIK
DE RUEHTA #2202/01 3570507
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 230507Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY ASTANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7067
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE 2281
RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1644
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2345
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 1273
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2639
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 2934
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFAAA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1839
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC 1689
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 002202 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, SCA/AF 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ETRD ECON OSCE AF CH IN IR KZ
SUBJECT:  KAZAKHSTAN'S VIEWS ON ITS NEIGHBORS 
 
REF: (A) ASTANA 2090 
 (B) ASTANA 2161 
 (C) ASTANA 2198 
      (D) ASTANA 607 
      (E) ASTANA 2200 
 (F) ASTANA 281 
 
ASTANA 00002202  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for public Internet. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Assistant Secretary of State for South and 
Central Asian Affairs Robert Blake thanked State Secretary-Foreign 
Minister Kanat Saudabayev and President Nazarbayev's foreign policy 
advisor Kairat Sarybai for Kazakhstan's assistance in Afghanistan 
and noted that it complements the civilian component of the U.S. 
strategy.  He suggested that Kazakhstan could strengthen the 
counter-narcotics and border-management expertise of the 
Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe (OSCE).  Sarybai 
encouraged further dialogue with Iran, stressing that "sanctions are 
not effective."  Kazakhstani officials emphasized efforts to 
carefully manage the country's growing economic relationship with 
China and to increase its trade links with India.  END SUMMARY. 
 
SUPPORT FOR AFGHANISTAN STRATEGY 
 
¶3.  (SBU) In separate December 15 meetings with State 
Secretary-Foreign Minister Kanat Saudabayev and the President's 
foreign policy advisor Kairat Sarybai, Assistant Secretary for South 
and Central Asian Affairs Robert Blake thanked Kazakhstan for its 
assistance in Afghanistan.  He noted particularly Kazakhstan's 
support for the Northern Distribution Network and the 
recently-announced Afghanistan-Kazakhstan agreement to provide 
university education for 1,000 Afghan students in Kazakhstan (ref 
A).  Sarybai told Blake that Afghanistan will stop being a source of 
instability in the region when Afghans see that "good governance is 
the necessary building block" for democracy.  Blake highlighted that 
Kazakhstan's initiative complements the civilian component of the 
U.S. strategy in Afghanistan.  Sarybai commended "the dual-prong 
approach" of President Obama's strategy.  Separately, Saudabayev 
said that reinvigorated U.S. engagement is "added incentive" to 
organize a 2010 OSCE summit, likely on Afghanistan (ref B). 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Blake told Sarybai that Kazakhstan's expertise with 
counter-narcotics and border management could prove useful for the 
OSCE.  He lauded Kazakhstan's offer to train Afghan police at the 
Central Asian Regional Information and Coordination Center (CARICC). 
 Blake noted the need for increased logistical support due to the 
U.S. troop surge in Afghanistan, and he expressed hope to both 
interlocutors that Kazakhstan will approve an additional north-south 
overflight path under the existing overflight agreement (ref C). 
 
IRAN -- FURTHER DIALOGUE NEEDED 
 
¶5.  (SBU) A/S Blake solicited Sarybai's views on likely prospects to 
seek strengthened sanctions against Iran.  Sarybai stressed that a 
peaceful resolution is "highly, highly important" to Kazakhstan.  He 
encouraged the United States to continue the dialogue and send 
positive signals, "perhaps at different fora.  Sanctions are not 
effective," he argued.  He encouraged the United States to continue 
signaling a readiness for a bilateral relationship.  "The mullah 
regime is still strong."  Sarybai told Blake that President 
Nazarbayev has told Iran to be open with and fair to the 
international community, deal with the International Atomic Energy 
Agency (IAEA), and give up nuclear weapon ambitions (ref D). 
Nazarbayev holds up Kazakhstan as an example Iran should follow, 
Sarybai noted, which makes a prominent position for Nazarbayev at 
the Global Nuclear Security Summit especially relevant. 
 
CHINA -- "LESS TALK, MORE ACTION" 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Asked about China's role in Kazakshtan, Sarybai said China 
is actively engaged in securing hydrocarbon supplies from 
Kazakhstan.  He noted the recently-inaugurated 
 
ASTANA 00002202  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-China pipeline and China's $10-billion loan 
to Kazakhstan.  "They are less talk, more action," he said. 
According to Sarybai, the China pipeline will help Kazakhstan link 
its Western oil-rich regions with other parts of the country.  "But 
Kazakhstan knows its limits" and carefully manages the type and 
scope of Chinese investment, he emphasized.  Chinese goods are 
popular with the lower-income stratum of society, he said, but 
Korea, Japan, and Europe dominate the markets for more expensive 
goods.  Trade with China is comparable to U.S.-Kazakhstan trade 
volumes.  Sarybai welcomed initiatives to diversify U.S. investment 
in Kazakhstan. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) In a separate December 15 meeting (ref E), Prime Minister 
Karim Masimov told Blake that Kazakhstan's traditional markets of 
Russia and Europe fell because of the economic crisis while China's 
importance grew in 2009.  "The lesson of 2009 was that China is an 
obvious market for Kazakhstani products," he plainly stated. 
Masimov also asserted that "the reality of 2009 was that only China 
helped financially, providing a $10 billion loan and an additional 
$3.5 billion program to assist extractive and non-extractive 
industries."  Masimov recounted that when Russian Prime Minister 
Vladimir Putin asked why Kazakhstan accepted China's money, he said 
he held out his hand and responded, "What do you have to offer?" 
Masimov, ever cautious, asserted that Kazakhstan must carefully 
watch its borrowing, taking only as much as necessary. 
 
INDIA -- HIDING IN PLAIN VIEW 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Sarybai told Blake that India's economic role in 
Kazakhstan equals that of China, but it is less conspicuous because 
"the Indians are less suspicious.  Everyone has doubts about the 
Chinese, but no one has doubts about the Indians."  Indian companies 
invest in the uranium, agricultural, and petro-chemical markets. 
Kazakhstani construction companies are active in India.  The 
bilateral trade is poised to grow as the two countries explore 
possible cooperation in the production of pharmaceuticals, said 
Sarybai. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) COMMENT:  While Kazakhstan's commercial relations with 
India are strong, and various Kazakhstani government officials have 
previously called for increased trade with India, Post is skeptical 
that Kazakhstani-Indian commercial relations will take off any time 
soon.  According to official statistics, the bilateral trade 
relationship between Kazakhstan and India is nowhere near the volume 
of Kazakhstani-Chinese trade (ref F).  Although Kazakhstan's 
bilateral trade balance with India reached $367 million in 2008, it 
amounted to only 0.3% of Kazakhstan's 2008 total trade turnover.  In 
contrast, according to President Nazarbayev's statements to the 
media during Chinese President Hu December 12 visit to Astana, the 
bilateral trade turnover between Kazakhstan and China in 2008 
reached $17.5 billion.  By emphasizing the Kazakhstani-India 
relationship, Sarybai might have been, consciously or unconsciously, 
downplaying China's rapidly increasing importance to Kazakhstan, a 
trend that concerns many Kazakhstani officials.   END COMMENT. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) A/S Blake cleared this cable. 
 
HOAGLAND