VZCZCXRO8994
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHAH #1566/01 3410526
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 070526Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3847
INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 5955
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 3649
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 3508
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 4197
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1284
RHMCSUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 4139
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 001566 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN; EEB; NEA/IR 
ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/BURPOE/COHEN 
COMMERCE FOR DSTARKS/EHOUSE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG PGOV PREL ZK TI TX
SUBJECT: WILL TURKMENISTAN'S ENERGY EXPORTS TO TAJIKISTAN 
STOP? 
 
REF: ASHGABAT 469 
 
ASHGABAT 00001566  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for public Internet. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Turkmenistan's electricity exports to Tajikistan 
might be affected by Uzbekistan's decision to withdraw from 
the integrated Central Asia power grid.  In the winter, 
Turkmenistan exports electricity to Tajikistan by transiting 
Uzbek territory.  Uzbekistan was planning to withdraw from the 
integrated power grid on December 1 and is reportedly 
disconnecting its system now.  The Turkmen Government is 
considering an option of transporting electricity to 
Tajikistan through Afghan territory. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Turkmenistan started exporting electricity to 
Tajikistan in November of 2007 and has exported about one 
billion kilowatt-hours annually since that time.  The exports 
take place only during the winter (typically from November to 
April) when Tajikistan's hydroelectric power stations cannot 
work at their full capacity because of the lack of water in 
the country's rivers.  Since the Uzbek grid is the only 
existing means of transmitting electricity from Turkmenistan 
to Tajikistan, the withdrawal of Uzbekistan from the 
integrated grid will make it impossible to export Turkmen 
electricity to Tajikistan this winter.  Nevertheless, 
Turkmenistan and Tajikistan could try to convince Uzbekistan 
to keep the lines that run through the Uzbek territory 
connected, even if Uzbekistan follows through on disconnecting 
from the grid overall. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The Turkmen and Tajik Governments have reportedly 
been looking into alternative options of transporting 
electricity to Tajikistan.  According to Tajik media, Turkmen 
Minister of Energy Yazmuhammet Orazgulyev stated at a news 
conference, which followed the first session of the Turkmen - 
Tajik Intergovernmental Commission, that Turkmenistan has a 
plan to export electricity to Tajikistan through Afghanistan. 
(NOTE: Head of UN Regional Center for Preventative Diplomacy 
for Central Asia Miroslav Jenca recently told USAID 
Representative that President Rahmon also raised the issue of 
importing Turkmen electricity via Afghanistan.  END NOTE) 
Orazgulyev reportedly specified that the Turkmen Government is 
considering a project to construct a 450-kilometer long 
Turkmenistan - Afghanistan transmission line with a capacity 
of 500 KV, which would allow Turkmen electricity to be 
transmitted to Tajikistan bypassing the Uzbek territory.  The 
transmission line would be built to the town of Andhoy, and 
Tajikistan would need to build another line from Andhoy to 
Tajikistan.  Orazgulyev also mentioned that the Turkmen 
project would require $50 million in foreign investment. 
(NOTE: The project to build a new transmission facility and 
transmission lines to the Afghan border has been long 
discussed as part of a plan to increase electrical exports to 
Afghanistan.  END NOTE) 
 
¶5.  (SBU) COMMENT.  Ongoing negotiations for a new 500 KV 
transmission line to deliver up to 300 MW power to Afghanistan 
have gone slowly for a variety of reasons (reftel).  The 
proposed project involves technical, and potential financial, 
support for infrastructure construction in Afghanistan from 
USAID/Afghanistan.  The Turkmen side has consistently 
questioned Afghanistan's ability to construct the necessary 
infrastructure and to pay for Turkmen power at a commercial 
price.  This latter concern is reasonable, given Afghanistan's 
track record of irregular payments for existing Turkmen power 
exports to Herat province at a subsidized price, which have 
been written off in the past by Turkmenistan.  Having a 
seasonal customer in Tajikistan for Turkmenistan's electricity 
 
ASHGABAT 00001566  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
exports makes the long-discussed project to increase exports 
to Afghanistan potentially more viable for Turkmen side, and 
should be considered in light of USG strategic objectives in 
Afghanistan and Central Asia.  END COMMENT. 
 
ECKSTROM