VZCZCXYZ0058
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAK #1847/01 3641514
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301514Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1579
INFO RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 6697
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS ANKARA 001847 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: CVIS PREL PINS PGOV PHUM SOCI SCUL TU IR
SUBJECT: Iranians Unchanged By Ashura Protest 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: CONOFFs surveyed Iranian non-immigrant visa (NIV) 
and immigrant visa (IV) applicants following the Sunday, December 
27, 2009 Ashura protests in Iran.  None of the applicants 
participated in the protests nor did any have contact with protest 
participants.  Most applicants were skeptical that the protest 
movement in Iran would have any effect, citing the lack of 
opposition leadership and a lack of will among the overall 
population in support of the opposition.  Most applicants, though 
upset about the June elections, prefer to continue with their daily 
lives.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Although the images seen in recent reporting of the Ashura 
protest were dramatic, the level and scope of participation appears 
to remain limited to a segment of the student population.  None of 
the applicants, who included students, reported participation in the 
Ashura activities despite being present in Tehran that Sunday.  An 
Amir Kabir University professor reported that his campus was one of 
the centers of the protest activity, but noted protest efforts are 
of little effect especially as the opposition is leaderless and 
loosely organized.  He added that unspecified satellite broadcasts 
from outside the country urged Iranians to protest on Ashura. 
 
3  (SBU) A Shahid Beheshti University professor said that the 
protesters were limited to students.  He hesitantly said that, 
instead of offering students opportunities, the government "beats 
them down."  Although he was unsure of any effective result of the 
protest movement, he fears the situation will get worse for the 
protesters.  He added that older Iranians and even students such as 
his daughter continue to live their lives without any interference 
by focusing on their regular work, and daily routines.  The son of a 
wealthy Tehrani iron manufacturer going to study in the U.S. noted 
that many young people such as he just want to live their lives and 
are not interested in putting themselves at risk.  A Tehrani 
robotics PHD candidate and her husband said they avoided the streets 
on Sunday to avoid the violence.  A dental surgeon from Karaj said, 
despite unhappiness with the June presidential elections, for 
professionals such as himself who have families and successful 
careers, there is too much at risk to join the opposition.  He said 
it is the single, and unemployed, those that have nothing to lose 
who fuel the protest movement. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) A Tehrani Volvo representative in his thirties noted that 
the protest in Tehran was large because the student-age population 
is large.  He explained that after the revolution the Islamic 
leadership urged Iranians to have more children to increase "Islam's 
population."  He added that as a result of this policy, there is a 
large population of young and single highly-educated, but underpaid 
or unemployed Iranians. Some provide support for the opposition. 
His wife added that the problem is that the students and the 
government do not know how to communicate with each other.  Both 
hoped that the two sides will soon resolve their issues, and added 
that most Iranians disdain violence, and want a return to calm. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) A wealthy structural materials producer and his wife, a 
part-time professor at Islamic Azad University in Tehran, believe 
the situation will ultimately calm down.  They noted that if people 
do not bother themselves with politics they can live good lives in 
Iran.  He added that within the government itself, there are 
differences about how to move forward.  They both agreed that 
improved relations with the U.S. would ease tensions, and help open 
up the country politically.  A retired teacher from Tehran and her 
husband said that they believe the government will have to listen to 
the problems of the students, and only through talks may a solution 
be worked out. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) A Kashani woman with a daughter in college noted that 
although there was unrest especially in Tehran and Isfahan, there 
was nothing significant in other cities and towns such as Kashan. 
Applicants from Iranian Kurdistan also reported no unrest this past 
Sunday and added that the political environment in their province 
has been generally calm.  The Kashani woman added that the youth of 
Iran now choose between two paths.  She said that as the youth did 
not experience the 1979 revolution some choose the path of protest 
(much like her generation did) to seek something new with the 
assumption that it will be better.  The other path many youth choose 
is to join the military or Basij as it offers stability and 
security.  She added that overall Iranians prefer to continue their 
lives as they are rather than support a movement with unknown 
consequences. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Only two applicants believed the protest movement 
significant.  One was a young computer programmer from Tehran who 
said that her brother and cousin witnessed a man shot in front of 
them.  She said the "people" are upset with the government for 
"stealing their oil money" and want real democracy.  She noted that 
the internet was the only organizing tool the protesters use.  She 
was hopeful that Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi 
Karoubi would soon adjust their positions to better support the 
protest movement.  A Tehrani insurance business owner said that 
people want a new system of government, and that lack of leadership 
was unimportant as the "people are the leaders." 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Despite government crackdowns on the opposition, Embassy 
Ankara has had no recent contact with Iranian political asylum 
seekers.  Since the June 2009 post-election protests, Embassy Ankara 
has had contact with a total of three Iranians seeking political 
asylum as a result of the recent unrest. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) COMMENT: Although the images from the December 27 Ashura 
protest appear dramatic, based on the overall indifferent and often 
hesitant reaction during the past few months from the general 
Iranian population including many students, it appears that support 
for the opposition continues to remain limited to a mostly 
self-driven movement composed of the most enthusiastic student 
supporters.  Despite general discontent with the June 2009 
elections, abandoning the current secure albeit imperfect but 
familiar system seems unlikely even if opposition leaders were to 
emerge.  END COMMENT. 
 
JEFFREY