VZCZCAJI472
RR RUEHC RUCNRAQ
DE RUEHAM #2675/01 3441346
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101346Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6490
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002675 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR CA/FPP 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KFRD CVIS JO
SUBJECT: Visa Validation Study - Iraqi B1/B2s Applying in Jordan 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (SBU)  Embassy Amman recently conducted a validation study of 
Iraqi visitor visas.  The study revealed that over 21% of Iraqis 
remained in the United States beyond the duration of stay originally 
granted to them by DHS at port of entry.  The only clear indicator 
of a likelihood to return to the Middle East was a recent history of 
successful, timely travel to the United States.  Travelers employed 
in the oil, construction, and development industries visiting the 
United States for business meetings also appeared to comply with 
duration-of-stay limits.  Interestingly, legal residence in Jordan 
was not a factor to support the claim of a strong tie to the Middle 
East.  Post will refine its adjudication of Iraqi visitor visas as a 
result of this study and will continue to monitor travel patterns of 
visa recipients. 
 
 
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Background 
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¶2.  (SBU) Since the fall of Saddam Hussein in Spring 2003, U.S. 
Embassy Amman has adjudicated over 20,000 Iraqi nonimmigrant visas 
with an overall issuance rate of 37%.  Whereas Embassy Baghdad now 
provides a full range of consular services, it does not yet offer 
nonreferral visitor visas due to access issues.  For this reason, 
significant numbers of Iraqis continue to apply for visitor visas in 
Amman where they must overcome the presumption that they are 
intending immigrants.  This is problematic as the applicants have 
already abandoned a home in Iraq on either a short- or a long-term 
basis.  Some Iraqis are legally resident in Jordan while others are 
merely in transit.  How can one predict an Iraqi's likelihood to 
return to Iraq if they have already left their country? 
 
¶3. (SBU) Post sought to validate its issuance rates of Iraqi visitor 
visas which comprise over 7% of its workload.  The goals of this 
study were twofold:  to gain a better understanding of bona fide 
Iraqi visitors to the United States and to be alert to specific 
factors that may indicate the person does not intend to return to 
the Middle East.  If an Iraqi has traveled to the United States 
since 2003, Post believes that the person may be likely to depart 
the United States after the visit.  Post tested this assertion by 
conducting a validation study. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Post's Fraud Prevention Unit (FPU) is an active participant 
in Amman's Fraud Control Group (FCG) whose members include several 
European nations, Canada, Australia, and the United States.  The FCG 
meets monthly and exchanges information on a daily and weekly basis 
regarding the movement of Iraqis in the region and overseas.  Most 
FCG member countries refuse the vast majority of Iraqi visitor visa 
applicants, recognizing that most are economic or political 
migrants, who should be applying for refugee status, not for visitor 
visas.  And each country notes a very high number of Iraqis who, 
when issued a visa, arrive in the host country and soon apply for 
asylum.  In addition, Amman's FPU learned from U.S. Citizenship and 
Immigration Service that a high number of Iraqi medical 
professionals issued student visas in Amman to study English in the 
United States, applied for asylum upon arrival. (Note:  This visa 
category represents a smaller data pool than Iraqi visitors and will 
be analyzed at a later date.) 
 
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Methodology 
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¶5. (SBU) Post selected six months (July 1 - December 31, 2008) of 
Iraqi visitor visa issuances (123 records) to determine what percent 
did not depart according to the original entry stamp in their 
passport.  First, Post extracted records from the Consular 
Consolidated Database (CCD) and submitted the data to Consular 
Affairs' Fraud Prevention Programs (CA/FPP) to retrieve entry and 
exit data from Department of Homeland Security (DHS) databases. 
CA/FPP and post were able to confirm travel records for 104 of the 
123 visa recipients by accessing the Arrival and Departure 
Information Systems (ADIS), the Automated Targeting System (ATS), 
and the CCD. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Post then divided the issuances into two categories: those 
who remained in the United States and those who departed.  By 
reviewing CCD case notes and scanned applications, post analyzed the 
following indicators:  marital status, country of residency, ties to 
Jordan, prior travel to the United States, family in the United 
States, purpose of travel, and occupation. 
 
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Results 
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¶7. (SBU) Analysis reveals that over 21% of Iraqis issued visitor 
visas who used the visa during that time period had not departed the 
United States as of mid-November 2009, a date well beyond the 
maximum 6 months' stay granted by DHS upon entry.  For this group, 
there are no clear markers to associate with their behavior 
regarding civil status, residency, existence of family in the United 
States, or year they departed Iraq.  But only one-fifth had traveled 
to the U.S. since 2003.  Two-thirds visited family or friends, and 
the others traveled for medical reasons.  Only three applicants 
stated that their purpose of travel was business-related.  Nor were 
there discernible trends regarding occupation, ranging from 
university professor, to real estate, restaurant owner, electronic 
engineer, and housewife. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Regarding the 83 Iraqis who complied with the terms of 
their visa, approximately half had prior travel to the United 
States, and most had visited since 2003.  Equal numbers were 
resident in Jordan as in Iraq and half had family in the United 
States.  Most traveled to visit family and friends, one-third 
traveled for business, and less than 10% traveled for medical 
reasons.  Business travelers worked primarily in the fields of 
energy (25%), construction (15%), and international development 
(15%). 
 
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Conclusion 
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¶9. (SBU) Post concludes that Iraqis applying for tourist visas who 
have traveled to the United States since 2003 are the best indicator 
of someone who will adhere to the 'admit until' limit stamped into 
the passport upon arrival.  Those who work in fields relevant to 
Iraq reconstruction and revitalization (oil, construction, and 
international development) who are traveling for business, also 
appear to be strong candidates who will depart the country after 
their trip.  In contrast, those who lack prior, recent travel who 
are visiting relatives are more likely to remain in the United 
States, either as a simple overstay, or by adjusting to legal 
permanent resident status, or by filing an asylum claim. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Post's analysis did not identify any notable difference 
between travelers who remained and those who departed with regards 
to their marital status, country of residence, ties to Jordan, or 
family in the United States.  Previously, post assumed that Iraqis 
who held Jordanian residency could be viewed as having good ties to 
the Middle East and would be likely to return to Jordan or Iraq 
after a visit.  It is significant that this study shows that whether 
an Iraqi is resident in Jordan, or in Iraq, has no apparent bearing 
on overstays.  The only clear indicator that an Iraqi may depart the 
United States in a timely fashion is a history of recent travel to 
the United States.  And a second positive aspect is the business 
traveler who works in one of the aforementioned fields and wants to 
participate in a meeting or conference in America. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Although Iraqi applications in Amman are decreasing on an 
annual basis, Post has seen a slight increase recently in the number 
of Iraqi visitor visa applications.  Several factors could be at 
play here, ranging from a natural by-product of the revitalization 
of the Iraqi economy, to the higher issuance rates at Embassy Amman 
(now over 42%, up from a 6-year cumulative average of 37%).  Post 
will strengthen its adjudications in light of this data and will 
continue to validate Iraqi issuances for other indicators of 
legitimate travel according to the visitor visa guidelines. 
 
MANDEL