VZCZCXYZ0005
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #1439/01 3410929
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 070929Z DEC 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2881
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9564
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0954

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001439 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/P, EAP/PD - THOMAS HAMM 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN'S LOCAL ELECTIONS, U.S. PRESIDENT 
OBAMA'S ADDRESS ON AFGHANISTAN 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language and English-language 
dailies from December 5 through 7 gave significant straightforward 
news reporting and editorial coverage to the city mayors' and county 
magistrates' elections around the island on December 5.  In the 
elections, the KMT won 12 of 17 mayor and magistrate positions, the 
DPP won 4, and one went to a former KMT and now independent 
candidate.  Local academics and political commentators, however, 
generally believe that the DPP has scored a victory in the 
elections, as the KMT's share of the vote fell steeply, from about 
60 percent in last year's presidential election to 47.88 percent, 
while the DPP's share grew from 41.55 percent to 45.32.  The 
pro-independence "Liberty Times" ran a banner headline on its front 
page on Sunday, reading "[Taiwan] People Teaching Ma Ying-jeou a 
Lesson."  Several opinion surveys also indicated that President Ma 
Ying-jeou's approval rating has dropped slightly while that of DPP 
Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen has risen significantly. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a column in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" discussed the December 5 local 
election results and said now it may still be too early to tell what 
the impact of the local elections on the 2012 presidential election 
will be, but the results have surely created new variables for the 
future direction of cross-Strait relations.  An op-ed in the 
KMT-leaning "China Times" also said Ma Ying-jeou's crisis has just 
begun.  An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language 
"Taipei Times" chimed in by saying that Saturday's election results 
were a warning for the Ma administration.  An editorial in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" said the results 
sent a "ringing message" to the KMT, to Chinese President Hu Jintao, 
and to U.S. President Barack Obama.  With regard to President 
Obama's December 1 address on Afghanistan, an editorial in the 
conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" said 
Obama's plan to send more troops to Afghanistan was an "exit 
strategy" for U.S. forces.  End summary. 
 
¶3. Taiwan's Local Elections 
 
A) "Ma Ying-jeou's Heavy Face" 
 
Columnist Antonio Chiang wrote in his column in the mass-circulation 
"Apple Daily" [circulation: 530,000] (12/7): 
 
"... It appears that teaching Ma Ying-jeou a lesson has nearly 
become a consensus among all the Taiwan people [this time].  The DPP 
just scored a minor victory, yet it was a big setback for the KMT, 
because the results reflected the support or opposition of the 
[Taiwan] public.  The number of elected DPP city and county 
councilors and township heads has [reached] a new high, [showing 
that] the party has stepped out of the shadow cast by [former 
President] Chen Shui-bian's legal cases and is moving ahead 
steadily. 
 
"The DPP is on the rise, while the KMT is declining.  Now it may 
still be too early to discuss the impact [of such a development] on 
the 2012 [presidential election], but it has created new variables 
for the future direction of cross-Strait [relations].  Ma's momentum 
is weakening, and Beijing will surely want to give him a hand, but 
if it does, it will certainly be more hindrance than help.  Ma's 
foundation of power is unstable, and [as a result,] he will have 
fewer bargaining chips in talking [with Beijing], and the chances 
are that he will make more concessions to China, generating more 
obstruction for himself from the opposition party.  The unstable 
political situation in Taiwan will certainly have repercussions on 
Beijing's policy toward Taiwan.  How Taiwan welcomes [China's 
Association for Relations across the Taiwan Strait Chairman] Chen 
Yunlin, who is scheduled to visit Taiwan in mid-December, will be a 
test [of that]." 
 
B) "Ma Ying-jeou's Crisis Has Just Begun" 
 
Former DPP Legislator Julian Kuo opined in the KMT-leaning "China 
Times" [circulation: 120,000] (12/7): 
 
"Judging from the seats or votes it has garnered [in last Saturday's 
local elections], it may be a minor setback for the KMT. But if one 
looks into the election [results], [one can say that] it was an 
unprecedented downfall for Ma Ying-jeou. ...  During the election 
campaign, the KMT experienced great difficulties in the cities and 
counties that are known for their agricultural development or 
traditional industries.  Such a development has reflected the local 
people's deep concerns that [signing] the Economic Cooperation 
Framework Agreement (ECFA) [with China] will result in more people 
losing their jobs and have an impact on local industries. ... 
 
"A look at the DPP showed that the votes it has garnered [this time] 
has returned it to its basic 45 percent and that it has successfully 
got rid of the burdens created by the legal cases of [former 
President] Chen Shui-bian.  Since it has scored a victory in the 
OBAMA'S ADDRESS ON AFGHANISTAN 
 
agricultural cities and counties and those emphasizing traditional 
industries, the DPP will surely appeal to a stronger power 
island-wide to strike back in the face of [China's Association for 
Relations across the Taiwan Strait Chairman] Chen Yunlin's second 
visit to Taiwan and the ECFA talks scheduled for the first quarter 
in 2010. ... A more severe prospect is that having regained its 
confidence, the DPP will pursue and attack [the KMT] by amplifying 
its criticism against the Ma administration for the latter's tilting 
toward China and only paying attention to the interests of the 
Taiwan businesses in China. ..." 
 
C) "Where the Buck Stops" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (12/7): 
 
"... On Saturday it was Taiwan's turn to hold local elections. 
Although the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) won the top posts in 12 
out of 17 cities and counties, losing only Yilan and Hualien 
counties among those seats it had held, public opinion sees the 
results as a defeat for the KMT and blames President Ma Ying-jeou, 
the KMT chairman, for the losses. ...  The KMT lost control of two 
counties, but only one went to the Democratic Progressive Party 
(DPP). More significantly, the KMT's share of the vote fell steeply, 
from about 60 percent in last year's presidential election to 47.88 
percent, while the DPP's share grew from 41.55 percent to 45.32. 
While Ma's aura is fading, the DPP is beginning to recover from the 
corruption charges against former president Chen Shui-bian. ... 
 
"Ma was perfectly right in saying voters had been magnanimous -- how 
else could one explain their rewarding government inability and 
dictatorial policymaking by handing the KMT 12 county commissioner 
and mayoral seats? Yet Saturday's results were a warning.  If the 
government doesn't pay heed to the public's concerns about US beef, 
the economic cooperation and framework agreement with China, 
recognition of Chinese academic credentials, poor government 
performance and anger over vote-buying, then Ma and the KMT will pay 
a heavy price in next year's special municipality and legislative 
elections." 
 
D) "Taiwan People's Message to Ma, Hu and Obama" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] editorialized (12/7): 
 
"The opposition Democratic Progressive Party's strong performance in 
Saturday's 'three-in-one' local elections sent a ringing message to 
President Ma Ying-jeou's right- wing Chinese Nationalist Party 
(Kuomintang) government, to the rulers of the People's Republic of 
China and to United States President Barack Obama. The content of 
the message can be quite simply expressed in the famous slogan of 
the 'snake flag' of the American Revolution of 1776, namely 'Don't 
Tread On Us!' ...  Besides fatally puncturing the myth of Ma's 
'Teflon'-like charisma, the results constituted a clear vote of 'no 
confidence' in his KMT government's craven unilateral tilt toward 
the Chinese Communist Party-ruled PRC and the content of the KMT-CCP 
'reconciliation.' 
 
"Notably, the crushing defeats suffered by KMT candidates in the 
agricultural three DPP-governed southern counties and the sharp jump 
in DPP support in highly-industrial Taoyuan County reflected the 
deep anxiety among Taiwan farmers, workers and small entrepreneurs 
over the blind rush by the Ma administration to sign the so-called 
'Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement' with Beijing under the 
misguided notion that even deeper integration with the high-risk PRC 
market is the panacea for the Taiwan economy.  Most voters in these 
districts sent Ma a stiff warning by endorsing a stronger DPP to 
balance the incompetence of his KMT administration in the wake of 
rising unemployment rates and plunging wages, its clumsy and callous 
response to natural disasters such as the August 8 floods in the 
wake of Typhoon Morakot and its surrender of Taiwan's health 
security by agreeing to fully liberalize imports of risky beef 
products and 'offals' from the United States in secret talks with 
Washington.  Ma now faces a grave dilemma over whether to persist in 
his unilateral and 'black-box' China-centric cross-strait policy 
after his administration has suffered such a major blow to its 
legitimacy. ... 
 
"Saturday's elections also sent a warning to PRC State Chairman and 
CCP General Secretary Hu Jintao that as well-timed given the 
upcoming visit by Association for Relations across the Taiwan Strait 
Chairman Chen Yin-lin to Taichung next week for a fourth official 
meeting with Taipei's Strait Exchange Foundation Chairman Chiang 
Ping-kun, who is also a KMT vice chairman. ... In the face of the 
high-profile propaganda campaign for ECFA and claims by Ma that up 
to 70 percent of the Taiwan people supported the deal, the KMT's 
clear defeat showed Beijing that nearly half of the electorates have 
deep doubts over Ma's arbitrary rush to forge this agreement with 
 
the PRC without public support, transparency or democratic 
accountability. 
 
"Last but not least, Saturday's election sent a clear message to the 
Obama administration that Washington cannot ignore the fundamental 
democratic rights of the 23 million Taiwan people or downplay 
Taiwan's national interests during its 'engagement' of the 
authoritarian PRC regime.  This message is most timely in the wake 
of last month's dangerous decision by the U.S. to openly express 
'respect' for the PRC's insistence on its 'sovereignty and 
territorial integrity,' which Beijing immediately spun into 
Washington's affirmation of Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan, and 
open encouragement of 'economic and political interaction' across 
the Taiwan Strait in the Joint Statement signed by Obama and Hu. 
Obama's Democratic administration should not turn a blind eye to 
this demonstration by the Taiwan people of their resolve to exercise 
their democratic rights and determine the shape and direction of 
their own society.  Hence, we urge President Obama to incorporate 
the principle of respect for the assent of the Taiwan people on 
Taiwan's future relationship with the PRC in any future statements 
or meetings with either Hu's CCP regime or Ma's KMT government." 
 
¶4. President Obama's Address on Afghanistan 
 
"It Is All about the 'Exit Strategies'" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (12/5): 
 
"Newspapers around the world are recently populated with all sorts 
of stories on exit strategies.  In America, the U.S. President 
Barack Obama announced to deploy 30,000 extra troops to Afghanistan 
over the next six months in what is sometimes referred to as 'the 
most difficult decision in Obama's presidency.'  As the U.S. and 
Nato keep on fighting an interesting unpopular and seemingly 
un-winnable war alongside Afghan President Hamid Karzai, whose 
administration was graded as the second-worst corrupted government 
in the world by non-governmental Organization Transparency 
International, the mainstream narrative on the Afghan War has 
shifted from 'Fighting the Good War' during the 2008 Presidential 
Election to the search for an exit strategy for the U.S. forces. 
 
"Obama hopes that by reinforcing the U.S. presence in the region, 
the allied forces can make a difference within 18 months and will, 
according to a senior official, 'degrade' the Taliban, and thereby 
make possible the ultimate goal of pulling all U.S. troops out of 
the country within eight years.  From the cautious rhetoric by the 
Obama administration, it is difficult to remember the same president 
had reassured the U.S. soldiers that the Afghan war is 'a war of 
necessity,' compared to the second Iraq War as 'war of choice.' ..." 
 
 
STANTON