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PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHVB #0647/01 3071421
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 031421Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9622
INFO RUEHLJ/AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA PRIORITY 6470
RUEHSM/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM PRIORITY 0093
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000647 
 
 
SENSITIVE, SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SI HR
SUBJECT: CROATIAN PARLIAMENT BACKS KOSOR TO SIGN 
ARBITRATION DEAL WITH SLOVENIA 
 
REF: A. FOLEY-FREDEN-JONES EMAIL 26-OCT 
     ¶B. LJUBLJANA 336 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The Croatian Parliament on November 2 voted 
by simple majority to authorize Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor 
to sign the Arbitration Agreement (AA) with Slovenia agreed 
between the two Prime Ministers on 26 October (ref A).  The 
GoC hopes Kosor and Pahor will be able to sign the Agreement 
in Stockholm on November 4.  In the same vote, the Croatian 
Parliament authorized the GoC to issue a unilateral statement 
regarding the Croatian views of the non-prejudicial nature of 
the AA.  This statement on non-prejudice will be formally 
issued after Kosor signs the deal with Pahor, but before the 
Croatian Parliament is asked to ratify Arbitration Agreement. 
 The main opposition party, the Social Democrats, abstained 
in yesterday's vote.  In order to secure the two-thirds 
majority that should eventually be needed to ratify the AA, 
the GoC will likely seek public assurances from the European 
Commission that both Croatia and Slovenia will be consulted 
prior to the issuing of the list of potential arbitrators. 
END SUMMARY 
 
PARLIAMENT GIVES THE GREEN LIGHT 
¶2. (U) After nearly 10 hours of debate, the Croatian 
Parliament on 2 November voted 80 to 9, with 45 abstentions, 
to authorize PM Kosor to sign the Arbitration Agreement. 
Most members of the main Social Democratic opposition party 
(SDP), abstained from the vote and harshly criticized Kosor's 
handling of the negotiations.  Despite the tough rhetoric, 
however, the SDP did not rule out ultimately supporting the 
agreement when Kosor brings it back to Parliament for final 
ratification. In the same vote, the Croatian parliament 
authorized Kosor to make a unilateral declaration on behalf 
of Croatia that asserts the non-prejudicial nature of the 
Arbitration Agreement, noting that by consenting to the 
agreement Croatia has not a priori accepted Slovenia's claim 
to direct territorial contact with international waters.  The 
unilateral declaration will be made after/after Kosor signs 
the deal with Pahor.  The US and Sweden -- on behalf of the 
EU -- will "witness" the unilateral declaration, but the US 
and Sweden will not/not co-sign the statement. 
 
¶3. (U) GoC officials and the Swedish Ambassador to Croatia 
told us on November 2 that plans were still in process to 
have Kosor and her Slovenian counterpart PM Borut Pahor sign 
the AA in Stockholm on November 4.  (NOTE: Croatian officials 
have noted PM Pahor's public statements that he will not sign 
the AA if Sweden intends to witness Croatia's unilateral 
statement, but say they have had no direct communication on 
the subject from Ljubljana, so are continuing plans as 
previously agreed.  END NOTE.)  After signature, and after 
leaving Stockholm, the GoC would issue its unilateral 
statement with the US and Sweden witnessing, and then return 
to parliament for a second and final debate on the signed 
Arbitration Agreement.  The government plans to seek a 
two-thirds majority to ratify the agreement to avoid any 
constitutional challenges that could result if a negative 
Arbitration decision would require Croatia to "adjust" its 
interpretation of its borders.  Croatia,s constitution 
requires changes to its border to be endorsed by a 2/3 vote 
in parliament. 
 
HARSH CRITICISM, BUT PM HOLDS FIRM 
¶4. (U) PM Kosor began the Parliamentary debate by telling MPs 
that the Government was not abandoning its claims or giving 
away its territory by signing this agreement.  Kosor told 
them that this was a "patriotic decision" about whether 
Croatia is about to finish EU accession negotiations, or 
whether it will remain in front of the EU doors for the next 
10 years.  She was also argued that the current agreement is 
better than the original Rehn proposal because the deadlines 
for the arbitration court will only start when Croatia signs 
the EU accession agreement.  On 30 October, President Mesic 
quieted some critics when he expressed support for the deal 
and said rejecting it at this point in time would cause more 
harm than good to Croatia. 
 
¶5. (U) Nonetheless, the AA has come in for some public 
criticism from the Catholic Church in Croatia and a group of 
intellectuals.  In two separate statements, the Catholic 
Bishops' Conference Justitia et Pax Commission and a group of 
Croatian intellectuals spoke unequivocally against the 
agreement. "The Government and the Sabor have no right to 
accept this, even at the cost of not joining the EU or of a 
continuation of the blockade," stresses the Church's 
statement.  The 26 Croatian intellectuals -- including 
retired military officers, writers, journalists, academics, 
scientists and prominent members of the Croatian Helsinki 
 
Committee with political orientations ranging from left-wing 
and liberal to right-wing -- released a statement calling the 
AA a "humiliation" for Croatia and urging the parliament to 
reject it. 
 
¶6. (U) Opposition parliamentarians attacked several aspects 
of the AA during debate, predictably focusing on the 
Agreement's Article 3(b), and arguing over the possible 
meanings of "Slovenia's junction to the High Sea."  Many also 
criticized the HDZ's "hypocrisy" for having opposed a border 
deal negotiated by an SDP-led government in 2001, but now 
demanding this agreement be supported.  Another criticism, 
and one the GoC had not anticipated, was over the process for 
naming arbitrators under the AA.  Several SDP and smaller 
party parliamentarians, suggesting they had been told as much 
by Slovene colleagues, claimed that the Commission would 
obviously consult with Slovenia as an EU Member State but not 
with Croatia prior to proposing the list of potential 
arbitrators.  Despite the vitriol, however, the governing 
coalition stayed united and even picked up a few opposition 
votes in support of the agreement.  Furthermore, even while 
largely abstaining on yesterday's vote, the SDP has left the 
door open to eventually -- albeit begrudgingly -- supporting 
the deal in parliament during its final endorsement. 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT:  Nobody in Croatia likes the Agreement. 
Even supporters view the decision to let an ad hoc 
arbitration body tilted toward Slovenia's interests decide on 
the final determination of the disputed border areas as a 
"necessary evil" to get Croatia into the EU.  The SDP, 
meanwhile, will seek to maintain the pressure on the HDZ and 
the government, and look for any additional ways in which to 
criticize the deal.  The GoC needs to shore up its arguments 
that the deal is an acceptable compromise that is not 
pre-determined in its outcome and that will give Croatian 
views a fair hearing before reaching a decision some years 
from now.  Therefore, the GoC will likely press the 
Commission to issue reassurances before the ratification 
debate that it will consult with both parties prior to 
constructing its list of proposed arbitrators.  END COMMENT. 
FOLEY