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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 8031

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 TOKYO 002657 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 11/17/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Poll: Hatoyama cabinet, political parties (Asahi) 
 
(2) Obama's Tokyo speech: President should flesh out concrete image 
of "Pacific nation" (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(3) "Seiron" column: Global warming diplomacy reflects national 
interest calculations (Sankei) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Poll: Hatoyama cabinet, political parties 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Abridged) 
November 17, 2009 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures are percentages, rounded off. Bracketed figures denote 
proportions to all respondents. Figures in parentheses denote the 
results of the last survey, conducted Oct. 11-12.) 
 
Q: Do you support the Hatoyama cabinet? 
 
Yes 62 (65) 
No 21 (16) 
 
Q: Why? (One reason only. Left column for those marking "yes" on 
previous question, and right for those marking "no.") 
 
The prime minister is Mr. Hatoyama 5(3) 4(1) 
It's a DPJ-led cabinet 26(16) 20(4) 
Policy 46(29) 46(10) 
Action 18(11) 26(5) 
 
Q: Which political party do you support now? 
 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 46 (46) 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 14 (15) 
New Komeito (NK) 3 (3) 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2 (2) 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1 (1) 
Your Party (YP or Minna no To) 0 (1) 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0 (0) 
Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) 0 (--) 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 (0) 
Other political parties 0 (0) 
None 28 (29) 
No answer (N/A) + don't know (D/K) 6 (4) 
 
Q: Do you think the DPJ should carry out policy measures listed in 
its manifesto released for this summer's general election for the 
House of Representatives, or do you think the DPJ may review them 
flexibly? 
 
Carry out policy measures 16 
Review them flexibly 77 
 
Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's economic and employment 
measures? 
 
Yes 37 
 
TOKYO 00002657  002 OF 006 
 
 
No 38 
 
Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's defense policy? 
 
Yes 36 
No 36 
 
Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's pension and healthcare 
policies? 
 
Yes 48 
No 28 
 
Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's efforts for reducing 
government waste? 
 
Yes 76 
No 14 
 
Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's efforts for changing 
politics that have depended on bureaucrats? 
 
Yes 69 
No 18 
 
 
Q: Concerning the Hatoyama cabinet, there is the criticism that the 
prime minister has flip-flopped and his cabinet ministers have been 
divided over important issues. Is this criticism on the mark? 
 
Yes 61 
No 27 
 
Q: The Hatoyama cabinet has decided to review the privatization of 
state-run postal services. Do you approve of postal privatization? 
 
Yes 49 
No 33 
 
Q: The president of Japan Post has changed from Mr. Yoshifumi 
Nishikawa in the private sector to Mr. Jiro Saito, who was 
administrative finance vice minister. Do you think this is 
contradictory to the Hatoyama cabinet's advocacy of doing away with 
bureaucratic control and prohibiting the amakudari ("descent from 
heaven") practice of retired bureaucrats moving into public 
corporations or private businesses? 
 
Yes 59 
No 30 
 
Q: We would like to ask you about the issue of relocating the U.S. 
military's Futenma airfield in Okinawa Prefecture. Japan, before its 
change of government, reached an intergovernmental agreement with 
the U.S. to relocate Futenma airfield to Okinawa Prefecture's Nago 
city. Do you think it would be better to honor this agreement, or do 
you think it would be better to review the agreement and renegotiate 
with the U.S.? 
 
Honor the agreement 28 
Review it and renegotiate with the U.S. 54 
 
 
 
TOKYO 00002657  003 OF 006 
 
 
Q: The Hatoyama cabinet has decided to extend 450 billion yen in 
civilian aid to Afghanistan in lieu of discontinuing the Maritime 
Self-Defense Force's refueling activities in the Indian Ocean. Do 
you approve of this? 
 
Yes 38 
No 41 
 
Q: Prime Minister Hatoyama's fund-managing body has filed political 
fund reports with contributions from fictitious individuals. Mr. 
Hatoyama gave an explanation. Were you convinced by his 
explanation? 
 
Yes 19 
No 68 
 
Q: Do you approve of using taxpayers' money to bail out Japan 
Airlines? 
 
Yes 40 
No 46 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted Nov. 14-15 over the 
telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. 
Respondents were chosen from among the nation's voting population on 
a three-stage random-sampling basis. Households with one or more 
eligible voters totaled 3,598. Valid answers were obtained from 
2,153 persons (60 PERCENT ). 
 
(2) Obama's Tokyo speech: President should flesh out concrete image 
of "Pacific nation" 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 5) (Editorial) 
November 15, 2009 
 
Although U.S. President Barack Obama, in his speech on Asia, did not 
talk about such grand ideals as the elimination of nuclear weapons 
and dialogue with the Islamic world, we felt his strong 
determination to involve the United States in Asia. We would like 
him to flesh out a concrete image of the United States as an 
"Asia-Pacific nation." 
 
"I am glad that I was able to come to Japan again," said President 
Obama. He began his speech by recounting his experience of visiting 
Kamakura as a boy. That was very much like Mr. Obama; it is typical 
of him to link his personal experiences to global issues when making 
a speech. 
 
In his Prague speech, the President called for the elimination of 
nuclear arms. He called for dialogue with the Islamic world in his 
speech in Cairo. He linked both speeches to the journey in search of 
his own identity. 
 
However, the President's speech in Tokyo was slightly different from 
his previous ones. He did not present a grand vision; rather he 
offered realistic topics. He noted that United States has been 
estranged from this region in recent years; in reality, all sorts of 
multinational negotiation frameworks, including the ASEAN 
(Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Plus Three (Japan, China, 
and South Korea), were formed while the U.S. was comparatively 
uninvolved in the region. 
 
 
TOKYO 00002657  004 OF 006 
 
 
Besides economic cooperation, the other main topics of his speech 
were the role of China and nuclear proliferation, as well as North 
Korea and Myanmar (Burma). 
 
Regarding China, which has gained in international influence, the 
President said: "I welcome China's growing role on the international 
stage. I have no intention of containing China." On the other hand, 
he expressed the view that the alliance with Japan, which shares 
democratic values with the United States, is the basis of regional 
stability, while stressing the importance of human rights, freedom 
of speech, and free elections. The President showed maximum 
consideration to Japan, relations with which are now strained over 
the base issue. 
 
On the elimination of nuclear weapons, the President underscored 
that the United States as a nuclear power will promote negotiations 
on nuclear disarmament, while saying that so long as nuclear weapons 
exist, the United States will guarantee the security of its allies 
through nuclear deterrence. We hope that the President will make 
further efforts for nuclear disarmament with Russia. 
 
President Obama took a stance of starting direct negotiations with 
North Korea, which has stepped up the development of nuclear 
weapons, and with Myanmar, where human rights are a serious issue, 
by offering a fresh path to encourage them to participate in the 
international community. 
 
The President announced that the United States is a Pacific nation, 
while saying, "Asia and the United States are joined by the Pacific 
Ocean." As the first Pacific president, born in Hawaii and raised in 
Indonesia, he promised to exercise leadership. 
 
To what degree will President Obama be able to draw an overall 
picture of a Pacific nation in the two years before he hosts the 
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit? That is his 
immediate challenge. 
 
(3) "Seiron" column: Global warming diplomacy reflects national 
interest calculations 
 
SANKEI (Page 7) (Full) 
November 17, 2009 
 
Shohei Yonemoto, professor at Center for Advanced Science and 
Technology, University of Tokyo 
 
Policy issues for a "new Japan" 
 
Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama made a speech at the UN climate change 
summit shortly after he formed his cabinet and announced that Japan 
will aim at reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent from 
1990 levels by 2020. While this speech on the 25 percent reduction 
won international acclaim, it has caused widespread confusion 
domestically, and the reaction has been negative. There is even an 
opinion that the new prime minister sacrificed national interests in 
his attempt to gain international popularity. However, such an 
opinion is based on misunderstandings about the significance of both 
the change of administration and of the global warming issue. 
 
Prime Minister Hatoyama further declared the birth of a "new Japan" 
at the General Debate of the UN General Assembly and discussed five 
foreign policy issues for the new administration: response to the 
 
TOKYO 00002657  005 OF 006 
 
 
world economic crisis, global warming, nuclear disarmament, aid for 
poverty reduction, and building an East Asian community. He stated 
at the beginning of his speech: "Since the Second World War, Japan 
has not experienced a change of government through an election. The 
relationship of tension between the politicians and the bureaucrats 
disappeared. As a result, there is no denying that Japan's foreign 
policy was somewhat deprived of vitality." 
 
In other words, the new government has learned a lesson from the bad 
example of past administrations, under which politicians merely told 
bureaucrats to come up with ideas. It is now changing the 
government's distance from the bureaucracy, regarding it simply as a 
machine for policy implementation, which is on par with other 
advanced countries. 
 
EU taking the lead in the emissions reduction game 
 
With regard to the issue of global warming, some consider the 25 
percent reduction commitment as a repeat of the nightmare of the 
Kyoto Protocol. Bureaucrats often say that Japan was tricked by 
clever EU (European Union) diplomacy under the Kyoto Protocol. 
However, it could have been easily predicted even then that there 
would be a sharp reduction in CO2 emissions in the post-Cold War 
period through the 1990s due to the collapse of the economies of the 
old socialist countries and a shift to energy prices of the West, 
and that this would have been fully expected especially by 1997. It 
was quite natural that the EU, which was saddled with providing 
enormous aid to Eastern Europe and which was aware of the situation, 
would take advantage of this situation in global warming 
negotiations. What should be criticized is the incompetence of the 
Ministry of International Trade and Industry and the Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs at that time, which were insensitive to the radical 
changes taking place after the Cold War and failed to gather the 
necessary information to protect Japan's national interests. 
 
The global warming negotiations are at a standstill at present. The 
Hatoyama speech declared in public what is effectively the toughest 
possible reduction target for Japan, with the full awareness that 
the 1990 base year is to Japan's disadvantage and that Japanese 
society's energy efficiency is already very high. This is perceived 
as an awesome message internationally. In the first place, the 
nebulous issue of global warming only became an issue in 
international politics due to the need to find a new threat to fill 
the tension gap left by the rapid receding of the threat of nuclear 
war after the end of the Cold War. The realm of international 
politics is essentially an arena for the clash of national interests 
backed by military power. For this very reason, this is also the 
venue for the exchange of idealistic disarmament proposals. 
 
The same is true for global warming negotiations. The proclamation 
of an idealistic reduction target that is regarded as unattainable 
domestically also serves to put pressure on other countries by 
taking the moral higher ground. The EU has been the one leading this 
game. However, if Japan, which is likely to work doggedly toward 
achieving its reduction target, enters the scene as an active player 
and appears likely to demand that other countries also achieve a 
comparable level of energy efficiency, this may turn into diplomatic 
pressure. Furthermore, since Japan proposes to provide aid to the 
developing countries under the Hatoyama Initiative, but is not 
disclosing what proportion of the 25 percent reduction will be 
accounted for by such aid, other nations will always have to pay 
attention to Japan. 
 
TOKYO 00002657  006 OF 006 
 
 
 
Litmus test for the new administration's Asian diplomacy 
 
It is noteworthy that Japan, which has completed its first cycle of 
investments in energy conservation and which has the technology, and 
China, which has become the top CO2 emitter in the world and which 
is grappling with the classic pollution issues, are located on 
either side of the East China Sea. What kind of political framework 
can the world's two most asymmetrical countries build by wrapping 
calculations of naked national interest inside the doctrine of 
fraternity (yuai)? The answer to this question is one litmus test of 
new administration's Asian diplomacy. 
 
The reason why there is strong resistance at home is that the target 
was set by completely ignoring the conventional policymaking method 
of adding up figures on feasible emission reduction provided by the 
bureaucrats. However, (it must be remembered that) Japan became the 
most energy efficient country in the world as a result of the oil 
shock rather than through a rational decision. 
 
This is because Japan has a keen sense of "national crisis" since 
the achievement of its rapid economic growth was founded on cheap 
oil from the Middle East. Other advanced countries cut back on all 
investments as a result of the worldwide recession, so they faced 
the deterioration of the environment as they entered the 1980s. On 
the other hand, Japan became the factory of the world, accumulating 
foreign currency reserves in the process until the Plaza Agreement 
of 1985. 
 
Unfortunately, human beings have the habit of mobilizing all their 
technologies when they sense a major threat. A typical example of 
this is the nuclear arms race during the Cold War era. The role of 
politics at present is to propose a set of values as well as 
generate a sense of urgency. A debate on reducing CO2 emissions has 
been rekindled in Japan, and that, precisely, is the purpose of 
announcing the 25 percent reduction target. It appears that the new 
administration is benefitting from the services of unexpectedly 
capable advisers. 
 
ROOS