VZCZCXRO5409
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #2607/01 3152301
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 112301Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7450
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/USFJ //J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/CTF 72
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 9706
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 7352
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 1171
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 4549
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 7870
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1783
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 8449
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7935

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 12 TOKYO 002607 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 11/10/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Poll on Hatoyama cabinet, political parties (Yomiuri) 
 
(2) Japan, U.S. adrift (Part 1): Bilateral alliance at crossroads; 
Futenma relocation issue out of control; "winter period," "danger 
zone"; distrust in Japan will continue (Mainichi) 
 
(3) Hatoyama administration is not considering Japan's defense 
(Sankei) 
 
(4) Two deadlines for Hatoyama administration regarding Futenma 
relocation (Asahi) 
 
(5) Aomori Prefecture, Tsugaru City protest U.S. Army "civilian 
employee's" fatal DUI incident (Too Nippo) 
 
(6) U.S. Army staff sergeant detained in fatal hit-and-run incident 
in Okinawa (Yomiuri) 
 
(7) Interview with PRC expert on U.S. affairs Shi Yinhong: 
Instability of Hatoyama administration undesirable (Nikkei) 
 
(8) Mounting pressure on Japan to sign Hague Convention: Some 
Japanese listed as wanted on suspicion of abducting their own 
children (Daily Tohoku) 
 
(9) Political Cartoon (Akahata) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Poll on Hatoyama cabinet, political parties 
 
YOMIURI (Page 8) (Full) 
November 10, 2009 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage) 
 
Q: Do you support the Hatoyama cabinet? 
 
Yes 63 
No 27 
Other answers (O/A) 5 
No answer (N/A) 5 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "yes" to the foregoing question) 
Pick only one from among the following reasons for your approval of 
the Hatoyama cabinet. 
 
Something can be expected of its policy measures 29 
The prime minister is aiming to make policy decisions at the 
initiative of politicians 21 
The prime minister has leadership ability 6 
There's something stable about the prime minister 5 
His cabinet's lineup is good 6 
Because it's a non-Liberal Democratic Party government 31 
O/A 0 
N/A 2 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "no" to the foregoing question) Pick 
only one from among the following reasons for your disapproval of 
 
TOKYO 00002607  002 OF 012 
 
 
the Hatoyama cabinet. 
 
Nothing can be expected of its policy measures 34 
Nothing can be expected of its policy decisions made at the 
initiative of politicians 16 
The prime minister lacks leadership ability 13 
There's nothing stable about the prime minister 11 
His cabinet's lineup is not good 10 
Because it's a non-Liberal Democratic Party government 12 
O/A 1 
N/A 2 
 
Q: Which political party do you support now? Pick only one. 
 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 13 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP or Jiminto) 19 
New Komeito (NK) 3 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 2 
Your Party (YP or Minna no To) 1 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) --- 
Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) --- 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 
Other political parties 0 
None 28 
N/A 1 
 
Q: The Hatoyama cabinet is a tripartite coalition government of the 
DPJ, SDP, and PNP. Do you approve of this combination of political 
parties in office? 
 
Yes 31 
No 56 
N/A 12 
 
Q: Do you think the Hatoyama cabinet has been able to make policy 
decisions based on its political initiative without depending on 
bureaucrats? 
 
Yes 28 
No 55 
N/A 17 
 
Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's policy of providing 
child allowance handouts? 
 
Yes 56 
No 39 
N/A 5 
 
Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's policy of making the 
expressways toll-free in principle? 
 
Yes 21 
No 73 
N/A 6 
 
Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's policy of ending the 
Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean 
by next January when the current antiterror law expires? 
 
Yes 47 
 
TOKYO 00002607  003 OF 012 
 
 
No 34 
N/A 19 
 
Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's policy of reducing 
Japan's greenhouse gas emissions by 25 PERCENT  from 1990 levels by 
2020? 
 
Yes 75 
No 16 
N/A 9 
 
Q: Do you think the policies incorporated in the DPJ's manifesto for 
this summer's election for the House of Representatives should be 
implemented even if the issuance of deficit-covering government 
bonds has to be increased, or do you think some of these policies 
should be forgone so as not to increase the issuance of government 
bonds? 
 
All of the policies should be implemented 8 
Some of the policies should be foregone 85 
N/A 7 
 
Q: Do you approve of the Hatoyama cabinet's policy of overhauling 
the Koizumi cabinet's postal privatization? 
 
Yes 54 
No 33 
N/A 13 
 
Q: Do you approve of the appointment of former Administrative Vice 
Finance Minister Jiro Saito as Japan Post's new president? 
 
Yes 27 
No 52 
N/A 21 
 
Q: What do you think about the pending issue of relocating the U.S. 
Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station in Okinawa Prefecture? 
 
It would be better to relocate the airfield in line with the 
agreement reached between the Japanese and U.S. governments 31 
It would be better to slightly modify the relocation plan 32 
It would be better to overhaul the relocation plan 19 
N/A 17 
 
Q: The government has plans to bail Japan Airlines out of financial 
trouble and turn it around. Do you agree with this? 
 
Yes 41 
No 50 
N/A 9 
 
Q: Do you think Prime Minister Hatoyama has fulfilled his 
accountability on his own politics-and-money problems, such as his 
fund-managing body's falsification of reports on political 
donations? 
 
Yes 19 
No 73 
N/A 9 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted Nov. 6-8 across the 
 
TOKYO 00002607  004 OF 012 
 
 
nation on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. 
Households with one or more eligible voters totaled 1,753. Valid 
answers were obtained from 1,074 persons (61 PERCENT ). 
 
(Note) In some cases, the total percentage does not add up to 100 
PERCENT  due to rounding. 
 
(2) Japan, U.S. adrift (Part 1): Bilateral alliance at crossroads; 
Futenma relocation issue out of control; "winter period," "danger 
zone"; distrust in Japan will continue 
 
MAINICHI (Top play) (Abridged slightly) 
November 10, 2009 
 
Takashi Sudo, Yu Takayama 
 
"It is serious enough to be reported to the U.S. President. How 
could he make such a statement without consulting with us? We want 
to hear his true intention." 
 
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell expressed his anger 
this way upon meeting with Senior Vice-Foreign Minister Koichi 
Takemasa at a Tokyo hotel on the morning of Oct. 12. 
 
Two days earlier, a Japan-China-South Korea summit was held in 
Beijing. At the outset of the meeting, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama 
said: "Japan has been relying excessively on the United States. We 
want to create policy that places more emphasis on Asia." 
 
This statement, which drew a smile from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, 
reached the United States in no time, amplifying Washington's 
concern and frustration with the Hatoyama administration's stance to 
move away from the United States. 
 
Hatoyama held his first summit meeting with President Barack Obama 
in New York on Sept. 23, in which both played up a policy direction 
to build a relationship of trust, shelving specific issues. 
 
That was just a month and half ago. Today, Japan-U.S. relations are 
said to be in a "winter period" or a "danger zone." 
 
The discord between Japan and the United States is ascribable to the 
Hatoyama administration's decision to end the Maritime Self-Defense 
Force's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean and the East Asian 
community concept advocated by Hatoyama. But the biggest cause is 
the Hatoyama administration's disunity regarding the relocation of 
the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station (in Ginowan, Okinawa 
Prefecture). 
 
The Prime Minister intends to postpone a settlement to the issue 
until after the Nago mayoral election next January with a view to 
moving the air station out of Okinawa, as was pledged during the 
latest House of Representatives election. Meanwhile, Foreign 
Minister Katsuya Okada is exploring ways to integrate Futenma with 
Kadena Air Base (in the town of Kadena within the prefecture) in a 
bid to settle the matter before the end of the year. On the other 
hand, Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa is eager to reach a decision 
to relocate the base to the coastal area of Camp Schwab (in Henoko 
in the city of Nago). 
 
Although the three leaders remain wide apart regarding Futenma, no 
one has volunteered to serve as a mediator. "They should stick to 
 
TOKYO 00002607  005 OF 012 
 
 
their respective views to allow the Prime Minister to make a final 
decision," a person close to the Prime Minister said. "If Japan 
listens to what the United States says just because their 
relationship is somewhat tense, Tokyo will not be able to break away 
from its subservient attitude to Washington." 
 
It is clear that there is the calculation to allow the Prime 
Minister to use the discord in the cabinet to demonstrate his 
political leadership and to make it a stepping stone to an equal 
Japan-U.S. alliance by putting an end to Japan's diplomacy of 
blindly following the United States. 
 
Shortly after the launch of the Hatoyama administration, Campbell 
demonstrated the stance of watching the new Japanese administration 
without applying pressure to it, underlining the need for patience. 
He is being criticized for taking the wrong step at the initial 
stage and finds himself in the hot seat within the government. 
Meanwhile, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates strongly pressured 
Tokyo to implement the current Futenma relocation plan as agreed 
upon during his visit to Japan on Oct. 20-21. But his approach drew 
a backlash from Japan, with a source familiar with Japan-U.S. 
relations saying, "He acted like an occupation forces' commander. 
The screw popped out as it was tightened too much." 
 
The governments of Japan and the United States intend to reaffirm a 
policy direction to strengthen the bilateral alliance by avoiding 
in-depth talks on the Futenma issue during the upcoming 
Hatoyama-Obama meeting. That shows a sense of crisis. The bilateral 
alliance is at a crossroads. 
 
Bruce Klingner, a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) official 
and currently a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a 
conservative think tank, pointed out some similarities between the 
Hatoyama administration and the former South Korean administration 
led by President Roh Moo Hyun, who dampened U.S.-ROK relations, 
putting weight on anti-U.S. groups. "The Obama administration would 
remain distrustful of Japan even after the Futenma issue is 
settled," Klingner said. "This is very similar to the relations 
between the United States and South Korea during the former Roh Moo 
Hyun administration." 
 
(3) Hatoyama administration is not considering Japan's defense 
 
SANKEI (Page 8) (Full) 
November 7, 2009 
 
By Yoshihisa Komori, Washington 
 
Thoughtless remarks made in a casual manner (by senior government 
officials) are rattling the Japan-U.S. alliance. The prime minister 
and cabinet ministers, even while defining the Japan-U.S. alliance 
as the cornerstone of Japan's foreign policy, have also said that 
the government will review the alliance. They have indicated they 
will distance themselves from the U.S. and step up efforts to build 
a framework for collective security in Asia. Particularly on the 
issue of relocating the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station in 
Okinawa, contradictory remarks are cropping up every day, like a 
lunch special that changes from day to day. 
 
Refraining from negatively reacting to the Hatoyama administration's 
inconsistent policy toward and betrayal of Japan-U.S. security 
arrangements, the U.S. government of President Barack Obama had 
 
TOKYO 00002607  006 OF 012 
 
 
ostensibly tried to maintain good relations with Japan. But 
Washington now appears to have altered its approach and decided to 
frankly express its dissatisfaction and disagreement with Japan. 
Despite this, the Obama administration has indicated acceptance of 
Japan's proposal for sidestepping the Futenma issue during the 
Japan-U.S. summit meeting to be held during President Obama's visit 
to Japan. Public support for the Obama administration has been on 
the decline, and the administration has been in a quandary over 
health insurance reform. Under such circumstances, the 
administration probably wants to avoid the criticism that it made 
Japan-U.S. relations even worse. 
 
On the U.S. side, persons in both the public and private sectors 
involved in the Japan-U.S. alliance complain that the Hatoyama 
administration seems not to be giving consideration to Japan's 
defense. 
 
I asked National Defense University Professor Jim Przystup, who has 
been involved in the Japan-U.S. alliance for as many as 30 years, 
and James Auer, director of the Center for U.S.-Japan Studies and 
Cooperation at the Vanderbilt Institute for Public Policy Studies, 
for their views about the Hatoyama administration's approach toward 
the bilateral alliance. 
 
Przystup addressed Japan-U.S. security issues as a member of the 
U.S. House Committee on Foreign Relations in the 1970s and was also 
responsible for Japanese affairs at the state and defense 
departments under successive U.S. administrations. He said: 
 
"Statements by the Hatoyama administration about the Japan-U.S. 
alliance remind us of the god with multiple heads in India. We don't 
know which remarks we should believe. ... The Obama administration 
initially gave the new Japanese government the wrong message -- that 
the U.S. will allow Japan to say anything it wants to say. In this 
respect, the Obama administration is also to blame. However, in the 
history of the Japan-U.S. alliance I have never seen such deep 
confusion. ... The Hatoyama administration has addressed the 
Japan-U.S. alliance in relation to the environment or at most, 
politics. But it seems oblivious of the key element - security and 
military affairs." 
 
The Japan-U.S. alliance certainly contains political, diplomatic and 
environmental components, but its core component is military 
affairs. The Hatoyama administration has acted as if the core 
element did not exist, according to analysis by Przystup. In other 
words, the Hatoyama administration has ignored the main purpose of 
the 
alliance -- the defense of Japan. 
 
After serving as director of Japan Desk at the Defense Department in 
the 1970s and 1980s, Auer has continued exchanging views with people 
in the Japanese defense establishment. He pointed out: "The Hatoyama 
administration seems to have no awareness of the need to protect 
Japan's security, although doing so is the government's 
responsibility." In reference to the Futenma issue, Auer emphasized: 
"The administration has discussed only details and has not 
considered why U.S. military bases exist in Japan. There is no doubt 
the new administration 'cannot see the forest for the trees'." 
 
Auer also refuted the Democratic Party of Japan's assertion that 
"Japan has blindly followed the U.S.: "If Japan truly followed what 
U.S. said, the Self-Defense Forces and defense spending would be 
 
TOKYO 00002607  007 OF 012 
 
 
more than double their current levels. Japan would have allowed the 
SDF to exercise the right to collective self-defense and stationed 
combat forces in Afghanistan." 
 
The two American commentators stressed the need to maintain the 
Japan-U.S. alliance from the viewpoint of U.S. national interests, 
but they have taken a friendly stance toward Japan, that is, a 
stance of focusing on Japan's good points. It is unprecedented for 
such observers to lash out at Japan to this degree. 
 
Against this background, Governor of Kanagawa Prefecture Shigefumi 
Matsuzawa visited Washington to discuss issues related to U.S. 
military bases in Japan and delivered a speech on Nov. 5. His words 
were encouraging. Although Matsuzawa supports DPJ policies, he 
stated in the speech: "The Japan-U.S. alliance is indispensable not 
only for Japan's national security but also for the stability of the 
Asia-Pacific region. In particular, when taking into consideration 
such threats as North Korea's nuclear and missile development and 
China's maritime expansion, we realize the importance of the 
presence of U.S. military bases in Okinawa." The governor, while 
stressing the need to reduce the burden imposed on Okinawa, 
emphasized that the Japan-U.S. alliance is the sole way to ensure 
Japan's national security." 
 
(4) Two deadlines for Hatoyama administration regarding Futenma 
relocation 
 
ASAHI (Page 15) (Full) 
November 7, 2009 
 
Foreign and security affairs both in Japan and the United are all 
talking about a certain paper. The paper concludes with the 
following statement: 
 
"(The Hatoyama administration) openly brought up delicate issues, 
such as an investigation into the 'secret pacts,' (a revision) of 
the Status of Forces Agreement, and (a reduction in) host nation 
support, several weeks before President Barack Obama's first visit 
to Japan. This is almost tantamount to telling the President not to 
come to Japan." 
 
The article was written by Ralph Cossa, executive director of the 
Pacific Forum, a think tank in Hawaii, and his colleagues. 
 
Cossa, who serves as the U.S. side's chair for Japan-U.S. security 
seminars held annually by the Forum, the Foreign Ministry, and other 
organizations, is well-versed in Japanese and security affairs. The 
Foreign Ministry puts great faith in him. That is why his bold 
criticism of the Hatoyama administration is drawing attention. U.S. 
Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Sheila Smith, also known 
as a Japan expert, is also harsh toward the Hatoyama administration, 
describing its policy toward the United States as "Washington 
passing." 
 
The U.S. government cannot conceal its confusion either. During his 
stay in Japan, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates strongly pressed 
Tokyo to implement the existing Futenma relocation plan as agreed 
upon, but that did not prove to be successful. On Nov. 5, Assistant 
Secretary of State Kurt Campbell visited Japan. But the best he 
could do was to confirm the policy direction to put off difficult 
issues until after President Obama's visit next week. 
 
 
TOKYO 00002607  008 OF 012 
 
 
Some in Washington are becoming increasingly critical of the Japan 
experts who have been called for practicing "patience." Criticism of 
the Hatoyama administration is likely to increase. 
 
Of all the challenges facing the management of the bilateral 
alliance, some think the Futenma issue is the most serious, citing 
two deadlines. 
 
One is the budget. The U.S. Congress is now deliberating on the 
fiscal 2010 budget bill. Unless Japan carries out the realignment of 
U.S. forces in Japan, including the relocation of Futenma Air 
Station, as agreed upon, the U.S. Congress might not approve the 
cost of relocating the U.S. Marines from Okinawa to Guam, and the 
entire agreement might be derailed as a result. The end of the year 
is the de facto deadline. "If the agreement is derailed, putting it 
back on track will difficult," said Robin Sakoda, a former director 
of the Department of Defense Office of Japanese Affairs. 
 
The other deadline is based on the political situation in Okinawa. 
Since the Hatoyama administration has shown a stance of exploring 
other options, such as moving Futenma out of Okinawa and integrating 
Futenma with Kadena Air Base, Nago's resolve to accept the envisaged 
replacement facility has begun to weaken. A rally by Okinawa 
residents protesting the idea of relocating Futenma within the 
prefecture is scheduled to take place this weekend in Ginowan, which 
currently hosts Futenma Air Station. If the incumbent in favor of 
relocating Futenma to the Henoko district is defeated in the Nago 
mayoral election next January, such a trend will become more 
pronounced. Even if the government decides that there is no other 
option besides the Henoko plan, the situation will not return to 
what it was. 
 
"The Hatoyama administration probably plans to examine (other 
options) by keeping (the Henoko plan) in the refrigerator, but (the 
Henoko plan) will spoil during that time," noted former White House 
National Security Council Senior Asian Director Michael Green. 
 
Regardless of the decision it makes, the Hatoyama administration 
must act swiftly in coming to a conclusion. 
 
(5) Aomori Prefecture, Tsugaru City protest U.S. Army "civilian 
employee's" fatal DUI incident 
 
TOO NIPPO (Page 24) (Full) 
November 6, 2009 
 
In connection with the incident in which a civilian employee of the 
U.S. Army's Shariki Communications Site, 48, driving under the 
influence of alcohol (DUI), crashed into the railing of a bridge and 
died on Oct. 30 in Nakadomari-machi, Tsugaru City, the city and 
Aomori Prefecture on Nov. 5 handed a letter of protest to Captain 
Kirby J. Atwell, representative of the military base, and strongly 
demanded that U.S. military personnel abide by Japanese laws. 
 
According to the Tsugaru City government, general affairs chief 
Arihiko Yamamoto went to the Communications Site and handed a letter 
signed by Mayor Hiroyoshi Fukushima to Capt. Atwell. Atwell 
apologized and said: "This incident is for us, too, truly 
regrettable. It has become a big obstacle." He added: "We will 
revise our traffic safety program and conduct regular training in 
order not to forget the lesson learned from this incident." 
 
 
TOKYO 00002607  009 OF 012 
 
 
Aomori Prefecture also presented a letter to Shingo Masuda, chief of 
the Tohoku Defense Bureau, through the Misawa Defense Office, asking 
him to lodge a protest with U.S. forces. 
 
(6) U.S. Army staff sergeant detained in fatal hit-and-run incident 
in Okinawa 
 
YOMIURI (Page 17) (Excerpts) 
Evening, November 10, 2009 
 
In connection with the fatal hit-and-run incident that occurred in 
Sobe, Yomitan Village, Okinawa Prefecture, U.S. Forces Okinawa 
detained a U.S. Army staff sergeant in his 20s who owns the car 
impounded by the Okinawa police on suspicion of being involved in 
this incident. 
 
In light of this, the Okinawa police have searched the staff 
sergeant's off-base apartment in Nagahama, Yomitan on suspicion of 
violating the Road Traffic Law (hit-and-run) and negligent driving 
resulting in death. 
 
The police will seek cooperation from the U.S. forces in the 
investigation of this case and plan to question the staff sergeant 
directly on a voluntary basis. 
 
The staff sergeant's car was brought to a garage in Kadena Town, 
some 5 kilometers from the scene of the accident, for repairs on 
Nov. 7, with the windshield broken and hair stuck to the car. This 
was later impounded by the Okinawa police. U.S. Forces Okinawa began 
questioning him on a voluntary basis inside the military base on 
Nov. 9. 
 
The U.S. forces also began conducting searches in the U.S. Army's 
Torii Station (in Yomitan), where the staff sergeant works, from the 
morning of Nov. 10. 
 
James Woodard, commander of U.S. Army Okinawa, visited the Yomitan 
village government office on the morning of Nov. 10 to meet Mayor 
Keizo Yasuda. He explained that, "We have detained the army officer 
who drove the car. We will do our best if there is a formal request 
from the Japanese side for the handover of custody (before 
indictment)." Yasuda told him that he strongly demands the early 
turnover of custody. 
 
Under the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), the U.S. 
forces will consider favorably any request for the handover of 
custody of the suspect detained by the U.S. side before indictment 
in cases involving murder, rape, and other heinous crimes. So far, 
the turnover of custody has taken place in five cases. However, the 
Okinawa police reckon that it will be difficult to make a request 
for turnover of custody in a hit-and-run case. 
 
The government is increasingly concerned that "heightened 
anti-military base sentiments in the local communities may affect 
the Japan-U.S. summit meeting on Nov. 13," according to a senior 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs official. It is stepping up efforts to 
collect information through government offices in Okinawa. Defense 
Minister Toshimi Kitazawa stated at a news conference that, "Since 
this is an outrageous incident, I can imagine the feelings of the 
Okinawan people to a certain extent," indicating that this will 
inevitably affect the question of the relocation of the U.S. 
Marines' Futenma Air Station. 
 
TOKYO 00002607  010 OF 012 
 
 
 
However, commenting on whether the government will demand the 
handover of custody of the suspect, if he is found to be a U.S. 
soldier, before indictment in accordance with SOFA, Chief Cabinet 
Secretary Hirofumi Hirano said: "My feeling is that the question of 
handover will not come up, since (pre-indictment turnover of 
custody) applies only to serious crimes, such as murder." 
 
(7) Interview with PRC expert on U.S. affairs Shi Yinhong: 
Instability of Hatoyama administration undesirable 
 
NIKKEI (Page 1) (Full) 
November 10, 2009 
 
Interview with Shi Yinhong, director of Research Center of American 
Affairs, Renmin University of China, by China Bureau chief Taku 
Shinada 
 
Shinada: What do you think of the current state of Japan-U.S. 
relations? 
 
Shi: Japan has followed the U.S. on everything in foreign policy 
until now. The administration has begun to assert itself a little 
bit, so the U.S. is beginning to have doubts about Japan. However, 
increasing Japan's independence is in line with Japan's popular will 
and national pride. I welcome such a posture. Japan will also be 
recognized (by other countries) as a country that has its own 
opinion. 
 
The Yukio Hatoyama administration has stated repeatedly that the 
Japan-U.S. alliance is the linchpin of Japan's foreign policy. That 
is the administration's true sentiment, so the U.S. is worrying too 
much. 
 
Shinada: What is the Chinese government's position? 
 
Shi: China has not commented on the Japan-U.S. relationship (for the 
past few decades). The PRC government knows that the Japan-U.S. 
alliance will continue. While it is not in favor of this alliance, 
it accepts it as a fait accompli. It will probably not make any 
public comments in this case. 
 
No impact on economy 
 
Shinada: Won't the strained Japan-U.S. relationship have any 
influence on Asia and China? 
 
Shi: A serious weakening of the political base of Prime Minister 
Hatoyama and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) caused by setbacks 
in diplomacy toward the United States is probably not a scenario 
that the Chinese government would like to see. Compared to the 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) administration, the DPJ 
administration places more importance on friendly relations with 
China. A weakening of the Hatoyama administration would not be 
desirable for China. 
 
Furthermore, if the Japan-U.S. issues drag on, the Hatoyama 
administration will have to devote time to dealing with them. Then, 
it will not have time to strengthen relations with China and promote 
multilateral cooperation in Asia. I hope that Prime Minister 
Hatoyama will make an official visit to China and senior Chinese 
leaders will visit Japan at an early date. 
 
TOKYO 00002607  011 OF 012 
 
 
 
Right now, while there is trade friction between China and the U.S., 
there is no such friction between Japan and the U.S., unlike in the 
1980s and 1990s. Discord in Japan-U.S. diplomacy will not affect 
bilateral economic relations or have a major impact on the world 
economy. 
 
Shinada: You are saying there won't be any major change in the 
Japan-U.S. relationship? 
 
Shi: It is impossible for Japan to destroy the Japan-U.S. alliance. 
The forming of this alliance is a major event in postwar history. 
There is nothing in this world that can shake that alliance. 
 
I think if the Hatoyama administration handles the issues capably, 
the U.S. will accept Japan's position in the end. Germany and the UK 
are also speaking up in dealing with the U.S. This is normal. I 
think the U.S. will accept Japan's position since it also relies on 
Japan. 
 
The present strain in the Japan-U.S. relationship reflects the 
United States' superpower mentality, while Japan's consciousness as 
a major power is inadequate. The U.S. does not treat Japan as an 
equal. 
 
Shinada: Are you concerned that Japan may move toward building up 
its own military capability? 
 
Shi: If the same thing happened under the LDP's Koizumi or Abe 
administration, I would suspect a possible buildup of Japan's 
defense capability, but there is no need to have such concerns under 
the present DPJ administration. 
 
Asia diplomacy welcomed 
 
Shinada: Two months have passed since the inauguration of the 
Hatoyama administration. 
 
Shi: I think the Chinese government welcomes that the Hatoyama 
administration is trying to improve relations with Asian countries 
and promote multilateral cooperation in East Asia. 
 
Shinada: What do you think of the concept of an East Asian community 
proposed by Prime Minister Hatoyama? 
 
Shi: Some Japanese politicians assert that the U.S., India, 
Australia, and other countries should be included in the community. 
However, the East Asian community should consist of East Asian 
countries. The U.S. should not become a full member; it can become 
an observer. It is also unnecessary for India to become an official 
member. This is the same as the logic for Russia, Egypt, Algeria, 
and other countries not becoming members of the European Union (EU). 
If half of the UN members become members, I don't think this is in 
line with the wishes of the people of the East Asian countries. 
 
China has no intention to play a leadership role in East Asia. I 
think a system of collective leadership (by the leaders of various 
countries) will emerge in East Asia in the future. China will not be 
able to catch up with Japanese and U.S. technology even in 50 or 100 
years. Militarily, it will not be able to catch up with the U.S. 
even in 50 or 100 years. The theory of the China threat is off the 
mark. 
 
TOKYO 00002607  012 OF 012 
 
 
 
(8) Mounting pressure on Japan to sign Hague Convention: Some 
Japanese listed as wanted on suspicion of abducting their own 
children 
 
Daily Tohoku (Page 5) (Abridged slightly) 
November 8, 2009 
 
The Hague Convention is designed to deal with cross-border removal 
of a child by one of the parents without the consent of the other. 
Japan has not yet signed the Convention. Troubles involving Japanese 
have increased proportionately with the increase in international 
marriages. There have been some cases that have developed into 
criminal cases. Pressure on Japan to sign the Convention is 
mounting. 
 
According to the U.S., Britain, France and Canada, the number of 
cases in which a Japanese parent returned home with a child without 
the consent of their ex-spouse totaled about 160 in May this year. 
Some have even been listed as wanted on suspicion of abduction. In 
October, 10 countries, including the four countries mentioned above, 
called on Justice Minister Keiko Chiba to have Japan sign the 
Convention. Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada said, "I would like to 
give positive consideration to the matter." 
 
In Japan, too, the American ex-husband of a Japanese woman in 
September in Fukuoka tried to take away their two children whom the 
woman had brought back from the U.S. He was arrested on suspicion of 
abducting minors. According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and 
Welfare, approximately 37,000 international marriages were 
registered last year. This number, which accounts for 5.1 percent of 
all marriages, is nearly six times the number registered 30 years 
ago. Divorces among such couples have also doubled over the past 10 
years. 
 
Against this background, attention is being focused on the fact that 
there also seem to be many cases in which foreign husbands or wives 
of Japanese nationals have taken their children away from Japan. 
Kentaro Masudo, 46, the representative of the International Family 
Union Support Center, pointed out, "There must be cases that have 
not been brought to light. It would be advantageous for Japan to 
sign the Convention." However, a source familiar with this issue is 
against Japan signing the Convention, noting that 80-90 percent of 
Japanese women who return home with their children are victims of 
domestic violence. 
 
The Hague Convention is a treaty designed to deal with cases in 
which a parent takes a child away from their ex-spouse without their 
consent. It was adopted in 1980 and came into force in 1983. In the 
event the parent whose child has been taken away by the other seeks 
the return of the child, the other country is obliged to locate the 
whereabouts the child and return him or her to his or her country of 
residence. The purpose of the Convention is to return the child to 
his or her former environment in order to determine the custody of 
the child. The number of signatory countries - mainly European 
countries and the U.S. -- stood at 81 in May. Among the Group of 
Seven industrialized countries, Japan is the only country that has 
yet to sign the Convention. 
 
ROOS