VZCZCXRO6988
RR RUEHIK
DE RUEHSF #0666/01 3281317
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241317Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6490
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000666 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/NCE TKONDITI 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN ECON PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: NEW GOVERNMENT RESPONDS TO THE ECONOMIC CRISIS 
 
REFS: SOFIA 416, SOFIA 324, SOFIA 292 
 
SOFIA 00000666  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Amid a deepening recession, the new government's 
focus is on promoting recovery, maintaining fiscal discipline, and 
avoiding an IMF package.  Its short-term "Anti-Crisis" plan includes 
an ambitious set of 82 measures which range from the vague to the 
concrete, many still requiring implementation.  Despite inheriting a 
sizeable deficit, the government has reined in spending and proposed 
a nearly-balanced draft 2010 budget.  Although Bulgaria is expected 
to be one of the only EU countries to meet the Maastricht criteria 
in 2009 and the only one to meet these requirements in 2010, its 
upcoming application for ERM-2 will likely encounter political 
resistance from the EU.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Macro Picture 
------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Officially in recession since the first quarter of 2009, 
the Bulgarian economy continues to slide, posting year-on-year 
declines of 4.9 percent and 5.8 percent in the second and third 
quarters respectively.  The IMF is now forecasting a 6.5 percent 
drop in GDP for 2009, followed by a further 2.2 percent contraction 
in 2010.  Compared to 2008 levels ($9.7 billion), foreign direct 
investment (FDI) flows to Bulgaria are expected to drop by at least 
50 percent in 2009 ($4.5 billion to date) and then increase 
marginally in 2010.  The IMF and some economists indicate that a 
weak recovery is possible in the third quarter of 2010.  Bulgaria's 
8.23 percent unemployment rate is lower than the EU average, but is 
expected to increase in the next six to nine months. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Although credit remains tight due to relatively high 
interest rates, the financial system is generally healthy thanks to 
high reserves and conservative lending policies.  As of October 23, 
international reserves amounted to 23.5 billion leva ($17.8 
billion), of which the Bulgarian government's fiscal reserve is 7.1 
billion leva ($5.4 billion).  According to the Bulgarian Central 
Bank Governor, commercial banks maintain a 17.6 capital-to-asset 
ratio, and are thus well-positioned to deal with non-performing 
loans. 
 
Bulgaria's Anti-Crisis Plan 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Council of Ministers approved a short-term 
"Anti-Crisis" plan to respond to the recession September 23.  The 
plan includes 82 measures aimed at improving Bulgaria's macro 
economy, financial system, business climate, agricultural 
production, infrastructure, employment, social services, and EU 
funds management.  Implementation will be a challenge.  For example, 
many of the so-called measures are vaguely worded such as "ending 
corruption in the use of EU funds."  Some measures will require 
Parliament to pass implementing legislation (i.e. the budget) while 
others can be carried out administratively (i.e. creating a 
computerized link between customs with tax authorities).  Some of 
the more specific measures include preservation of the lev's peg to 
the euro until Eurozone entry, cutting government operating costs by 
15 percent, decreasing the minimum capital requirement for new 
businesses to one euro, decreasing employers' social security 
contributions by two percent, creating a national employment 
database, and maintaining the 20 percent VAT rate.  The Anti-Crisis 
Plan will be in effect through April 27, 2010, when the IMF is 
expected to conduct its next staff mission. 
 
Restoring Fiscal Discipline 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) After taking office in July, the new government inherited 
what they say was an 11 percent budget deficit from its predecessor 
due to a pre-election spending spree during a time of declining 
revenues.  Reversing a pre-election promise, the new finance 
minister (and former World Bank official) Simeon Dyankov decided 
against requesting an IMF precautionary agreement.  Instead, he cut 
government expenditures and ramped up customs enforcement, steps 
later applauded by the IMF.  As a result, the budget returned to 
positive territory in October.  The government is now projecting a 
0.6 percent budget deficit for 2009.  An EU report released October 
23 ranked Bulgaria in the top five EU countries for long-term 
sustainability of public finances. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Following the Anti-Crisis Plan's call for a balanced 
budget, the finance minister proposed a 2010 draft budget which 
projects a 0.7 percent deficit, or 470 million leva ($349.3 
million).  The budget which passed its first reading November 17 is 
based on higher revenues through customs enforcement, EU funds 
absorption, and higher excise taxes on cigarettes, fuel, and 
alcohol.  Funding priorities include social security, health care, 
education, and the environment.  Bulgaria's defense spending is 
slated to be cut by 10.3 percent, from 993.0 to 890.6 million leva 
 
SOFIA 00000666  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
($754.7 to $676.9 million), well below the two percent GDP threshold 
required by NATO. 
 
Eurozone Prospects Improve; Political Hurdles Remain 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The recession's silver lining is lower inflation, declining 
from almost 15 percent in June 2008 to -0.3 percent in October 2009 
(year-on-year).  The government is projecting 2.2 percent inflation 
for 2010.  With inflation and deficits under control, Bulgaria is 
expected to be one of the only EU countries to meet the Maastricht 
criteria in 2009 and the only one to meet these requirements in 
¶2010.  Based on its 2010 economic and financial outlook, the 
government has announced its intention to apply for ERM-2 membership 
in the spring of 2010.  Our contacts are not optimistic about a 
quick ERM-2 entry, however, because it will require a political 
consensus among all 27 EU members, some of which still question 
Bulgaria's resolve to fight organized crime and corruption. 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) COMMENT:  After inheriting a large deficit, the Borissov 
government's proposed 2010 near-balanced budget is ambitious and 
commendable.  It will also be painful.  After years of enviable 
growth, Bulgarians are not used the belt tightening that is 
envisioned.  The local economy is still vulnerable to external 
developments, particularly a weak recovery of major EU export 
markets, which could result in smaller than expected budget 
revenues.  To maintain popular support, the government will need to 
explain the need for this self-imposed austerity while orientating 
social programs towards preventing the erosion of income, especially 
for those households that will become indebted as the crisis 
continues.  There has been no more talk of external help at this 
point, at least until sometime next year when the Anti-Crisis plan 
expires and authorities will likely need to revise next year's 
budget.  END COMMENT. 
 
SUTTON