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UNCLAS SANTIAGO 001080 
 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR R/MR, I/PP, WHA/BSC, WHA/PDA, INR/IAA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON KMDR KPAO PGOV PREL SNAR EFIN CI
SUBJECT: Santiago Nov. 12 Media Report 
 
Lead Story 
 
¶1.            Centro de Estudios Publicos poll for the presidential 
election:  Sebastian Pinera 36 percent, Eduardo Frei 26, Marco 
Enriquez Ominami 19, and Jorge Arrate 5 percent (Conservative, 
influential El Mercurio, 11/12). 
 
 
 
U.S.-Related News 
 
¶2.      Arturo Valenzuela was sworn in yesterday as Assistant 
Secretary of State for Latin America (El Mercurio; conservative 
independent La Tercera, 11/11). 
 
 
 
¶3.            The Army has organized an international conference on 
mapping starting November 15.  For six days experts from 150 
countries will discuss new mapping technologies, satellite images, 
and tools and its uses. Vice Admiral Robert Murrett, Director of 
the U.S.  National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, is among those 
attending (El Mercurio, 11/12). 
 
 
 
Honduras 
 
¶4.            Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Craig Kelly 
returned to the United States empty handed after a two-day visit to 
Honduras.  Kelly tried to bring both parties in conflict back to 
the negotiating table (El Mercurio, 11/2). 
 
 
 
¶5.            OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza said the 
regional organization "cannot even consider" sending observers to 
the November 29 election in Honduras as requested by de facto 
President Roberto Micheletti (Conservative, afternoon La Segunda, 
11/12). 
 
 
 
CEP Poll 
 
¶6.            The September CEP poll showed minor variations 
compared to the August survey: While Pinera decreased one percent 
and Frei two, Enriquez-Ominami increased two. Arrate is approaching 
the 5 percent that candidates of the far left have received in past 
elections (Conservative, independent La Tercera, 11/12). 
 
 
 
¶7.            Political analysts comment on the CEP poll. Maria de 
los Angeles Fernandez, of Chile 21 Foundation, said the poll shows 
that although Pinera is ahead in the presidential race, he seems to 
have reached a ceiling.  She noted that although the percentage for 
Enriquez-Ominami has consistently increased, it is unlikely he will 
be able to reach Frei.  Guido Romo, from research center Geminis, 
said the poll shows that the August-November campaigns had no 
effect on voting patterns.  Gonzalo Muller, from Universidad del 
Desarrollo, said the results did not answer the main question, 
which is who would go to a runoff with Pinera, because while Frei 
is losing votes Enriquez-Ominami is gaining them.  Furthermore, he 
said, the results in an eventual runoff show that Enriquez-Ominami 
is a stronger candidate than Frei (Business, financial Diario 
Financiero, 11/12) 
 
 
 
¶8.         We can draw the following conclusions from the CEP poll: 
The voting percentage for each of the three main candidates - 
Pinera, Frei, Enriquez-Ominami-- did not vary more than 3 points 
compared to the August poll; 14 percent said that they are 
undecided;  n the 2005 presidential election 15 percent voted null 
or did not vote.  We can assume, therefore, that it is unlikely 
 
that there will be any significant change in the number of 
individuals who will not vote in the December election (Catholic 
University professor Rodrigo Salcedo; Government-owned La Nacion, 
11/12). 
 
 
 
Venezuela 
 
¶9.            Editorial: "Hugo Chavez... is doubling his efforts to 
increase his hold on power....Given the somewhat tired decision to 
blame U.S. imperialism, Chavez has now made Colombia its new 
target. In his most recent remarks... Chavez ordered the Bolivarian 
Forces to prepare to wage war on Colombia.... This kind of rhetoric 
is very dangerous, because Chavez could resort to extreme tactics 
including war to hold on to power.... Other government in the 
region see this as threat too, such as Brazil that offered 
immediately to mediate in the crisis.... Venezuelan analysts ... 
anticipated recently said that Chavez has three real options to 
create a situation to stay in power: an auto coup, an artificial 
civil war, or a war on Colombia. Any of the three are possible... 
and all of them are equally bad for Latin America.  But the latter 
is the worse of them" (El Mercurio, 11/11). 
SIMONS