VZCZCXRO8541
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHPS #0501/01 3192124
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 152124Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRISTINA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9449
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1267
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1798
RHFMIUU/AFSOUTH NAPLES IT
RHMFISS/CDR TF FALCON
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGEA/CDR650THMIGP SHAPE BE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHDC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUZEJAA/USNIC PRISTINA SR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRISTINA 000501 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/PGI, INL, DRL, PRM, USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KV
SUBJECT:  KOSOVO:  STRONG TURNOUT, RELATIVE CALM MARK LOCAL POLLS 
 
REF:  A) PRISTINA 497 AND PREVIOUS 
 
PRISTINA 00000501  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Kosovo's November 15 local elections, the first 
organized by Kosovo authorities and the first since independence, 
were marked by higher than expected turnout, in both the Serb 
community and in Kosovo at large.  Voters cast ballots for mayors 
and municipal assembly persons in 36 municipalities, including four 
new Serb-majority municipalities.  A raw vote count of over 3,800 
votes in the newly decentralized majority-Serb municipality of 
Gracanica is potentially a watershed moment for Kosovo Serb 
participation in Kosovo institutions.  Both local and international 
monitors (including a 100-person Embassy-led effort) generally 
credited the Central Elections Commission (CEC) with successful and 
professional organization of the polls, which were held without any 
major security incidents.  Preliminary results will not be available 
until Monday, November 16, but final results are not expected for 
several days, in part because of the time it takes to count the many 
conditional ballots cast.  Parties have until November 18 to file 
complaints with the Elections Complaints and Appeals Commission. 
Run-off elections for those municipalities where mayoral candidates 
failed to win 50 percent of the vote plus-one are scheduled for 
December 13.  END SUMMARY 
 
TODAY'S WINNER -- KOSOVO VOTERS... 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) As the polls close following the first elections organized 
by and held in independent Kosovo, an unexpected increase in overall 
turnout is the surprising lead story.  While many experts expected 
voting in these municipal polls to slide significantly in comparison 
to 2007, CEC reported this evening that voters cast 709,362 ballots, 
an unexpected increase of more than 140,000 votes over the previous 
election. 
 
INCLUDING KOSOVO SERBS 
---------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Greater than expected turnout was not limited to the 
majority Kosovo Albanian community, either.  Four of the six new 
majority-Serb municipalities formed under the Ahtisaari Plan's 
decentralization process voted for the first time on November 15 -- 
Gracanica, Novo Brdo, Ranilug and Klokot.  In spite of procedural 
obstacles from Belgrade and threats to employment from parallel 
structures and Serbian public enterprises, Kosovo Serbs voted in 
refreshingly high numbers.  In the new municipality of Gracanica 
alone, the CEC reported that more than 3,800 persons voted; this is 
roughly 2,000 more than voted for all Kosovo Serb parties combined 
in municipal elections in 2007, and about 600 more than cast ballots 
in the territory of Kosovo in parallel elections in Gracanica in 
August 2009. 
 
OBSERVERS PRAISE ELECTION ORGANIZATION EFFORTS 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶4. (SBU) The USAID-funded local NGO coalition Democracy in Action 
told us following the close of polls that in their official 
statement later today they will report that while there were some 
irregularities and obstacles to voting, they did not essentially 
affect the results.  International monitors, including the 
USAID-funded European Network of Election Monitoring Organizations 
(ENEMO) effort, are expected to issue similar statements November 
¶16.  The 32 teams of USG monitors who observed the polls nationwide 
also reported generally well-run polling places with staff that took 
pride in the process. 
 
ELECTIONS TAKE PLACE WITHOUT SERIOUS INCIDENTS 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶5. (SBU) These elections took place in an atmosphere of relative 
calm, as well.  According to EULEX logs of Kosovo Police activity 
during election day, there were about 10 arrests, in most cases 
related to the possession of firearms at polling stations or 
 
PRISTINA 00000501  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
attempts to disrupt the voting process.  Voting took place in all 
municipalities of Kosovo, including Leposavic, Zvecan and Zubin 
Potok, the three municipalities north of the Ibar.  (Note:  Mobile 
polling stations for Serb voters in northern Mitrovica, Zubin Potok, 
and Zvecan recorded no votes.  End Note)  Though a group of about 70 
Kosovo Serbs assembled in Zubin Potok to protest at a mobile polling 
station, they were prevented from approaching the station by Kosovo 
Police, and dispersed without incident. 
 
THE ROAD AHEAD 
-------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Final results will take several days to determine and will 
require the counting of all conditional ballots and the resolution 
of all complaints made to the Electoral Complaints and Appeals 
Commission (ECAC).  (Note:  Complaints to the ECAC are due by 
November 18.  End Note) Preliminary results will become available on 
November 16, and we do not expect to see certified results for at 
least one week.  Runoff elections for mayor, in those municipalities 
where no candidate wins a simple majority, will take place on 
Sunday, December 13. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Today's turnout of over 709,000 represents both an end to 
a decade long trend of lower and lower turnout in municipal 
elections, and a defeat to those forces -- like Albin Kurti's 
Vetevendosje Movement and Serbian parallel structures -- who 
actively opposed these polls.  Strong Kosovo Serb turnout, at least 
in Gracanica and other areas south of the Ibar, is an important 
victory for the community and the prospects of integration.  It will 
give new decentralized municipalities like Gracanica a legitimacy 
that Kosovo Serb bodies have not enjoyed in some time.  While the 
final winners and losers are yet to be determined, and will not be 
determined in most cases before December 13, conventional wisdom 
holds that a high turnout election should benefit the party that has 
historically achieved the highest vote totals -- the Democratic 
League of Kosovo (LDK) of President Sejdiu and Pristina Mayor Isa 
Mustafa.  Following LDK's strong campaign, we anticipate that the 
results, when released, will reflect an LDK surge.  A first-round 
win in Pristina, which the LDK is already claiming, could be a boon 
to the leadership ambitions of Mayor Isa Mustafa, and could tempt 
the LDK to reopen talks on coalition relations with Prime Minister 
Thaci's Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK).  A significant surge for 
Thaci's PDK, with its solid, stable base of 200,000 voters, would be 
much more difficult to explain.  END COMMENT 
 
DELL