VZCZCXRO6222
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHPS #0493/01 3161545
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 121545Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRISTINA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9431
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1253
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1784
RHFMIUU/AFSOUTH NAPLES IT
RHMFISS/CDR TF FALCON
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGEA/CDR650THMIGP SHAPE BE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUZEJAA/USNIC PRISTINA SR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRISTINA 000493 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/PGI, INL, DRL, PRM, USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KV
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: LDK'S ELECTION STRATEGY: FROM PROBLEM CHILD TO 
CONTENDER 
 
REF: PRISTINA 477 
 
PRISTINA 00000493  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  The Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), Kosovo's 
oldest and second largest political party appears reinvigorated 
going into the November 15 local elections, following its 2007 
electoral flop.  LDK is more united and organized than at any time 
in the last three years, and it is employing professional campaign 
tactics that many within the party believe have it poised for a 
comeback.  LDK is also fielding younger candidates and courting 
younger voters in an effort to broaden its base and mobilize more 
voters on election day.  Our visits to Suhareka, Gjilan, and Gjakova 
and exchanges with LDK mayoral candidates in each suggest that local 
party branches are indeed better organized and more energized than 
in previous years.  LDK cannot afford another disappointing 
electoral showing.  With elections less than a week away pundits and 
prognosticators now believe LDK will not only have little trouble 
retaining control of the municipalities it won in 2007, but could do 
much better.  If that's the case it will have reestablished itself 
as a credible political force in Kosovo ahead of general elections 
due by 2011, and Pristina Mayor Isa Mustafa -- a rising star in the 
party and the face of this year's LDK campaign -- could be well 
placed to challenge Kosovo President Fatmir Sejdiu for the 
leadership of the party in 2010.  END SUMMARY 
 
MAKING UP FOR THE PREVIOUS DISASTER 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Kosovo's November 2009 municipal elections provide an 
opportunity for the once-dominant Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) 
to rebound from a disastrous showing in the 2007 elections, when the 
party's vote tally more than halved in comparison to 2004, dropping 
from 313,000 to 130,000.  Subsequent survey data indicate that only 
a few of these LDK voters switched to other parties; most simply 
stayed at home on election day.  (Note: Those that did switch 
generally moved to the New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) or to the 
Democratic League of Dardania (LDD).  End Note)  This crushing loss 
left LDK's grassroots demoralized and its senior leadership divided. 
 The party drifted under President Sejdiu, who is 
constitutionally-barred from managing LDK as its party leader, and 
no other personalities emerged to fill the power vacuum.  LDK hit a 
low point this past winter and spring when Pristina was filled with 
almost daily rumors of an impending party split and of impending 
mass defection of LDK MPs to the opposition Alliance for the Future 
of Kosovo (AAK).  More recently, LDK's internal divisions have 
eased, and Sejdiu tapped Lutfi Haziri, the party's Kosovo Assembly 
caucus leader and once Sejdiu's harshest critic, to run the party's 
2009 election campaign.  For the first time in months, LDK 
leadership figures tell us that the party is on the way back, and 
they credit increased attention to the grass roots and a new focus 
on campaigning as reasons why they expect significant gains in next 
week's vote. 
 
JUST LIKE A REAL PARTY 
---------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) In May, LDK held a party conference centered on a "values 
and vision" theme to discuss the party's principles and policies. 
(Note:  USAID implementer the National Democratic Institute (NDI) 
assisted LDK in organizing the party conference.  End note)  The 
conference was a wonkish, policy-laden affair that drew little 
publicity, but it marked the first time in three years that the 
party's central leadership had sought feedback from branch leaders 
and grassroots activists.  Minister of Local Government 
Administration Sadri Ferati, a party loyalist whom Sejdiu trusts, 
subsequently engaged senior LDK leaders in a first-ever nationwide 
party branch "listening tour" designed to reconnect the party's 
senior leadership with LDK's local leaders and to energize 
rank-and-file activists.  These routine events were a novelty for a 
party that had become infamous for ignoring retail politics -- for 
example, in the 2007 elections LDK did not begin a coordinated 
national campaign until the final two weeks before election day. 
 
PRISTINA 00000493  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
This election season, discussions with a wide array of central and 
local party leaders display clear unity, optimism and growing 
competence as LDK heads into local elections. 
 
FOR BETTER RESULTS:  IMPROVED CAMPAIGN TECHNOLOGY... 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) In a recent conversation, Haziri told us that LDK is 
pinning its electoral hopes on winning municipal races in 
Gjilan/Gnjilane, Prizren, Peja/Pec and Dragash/Dragas while holding 
onto to its current municipalities, most importantly vote-rich 
Pristina where incumbent Isa Mustafa is the odds on favorite for a 
second term.  (Note: Before the 2007 elections, LDK controlled 20 of 
the 26 municipalities where ethnic Albanians were a majority. 
Following the 2007 electoral collapse LDK retained control of local 
assemblies and mayoral seats in just five municipalities:  Pristina, 
Podujevo, Kosovo Polje, Istok, and Suhareka.  LDK holds two 
additional mayoralties, in Obilic and Novo Brdo.  End Note)  Haziri 
said he expects LDK to win or place second in every municipal 
contest.  This summer the party designated a local campaign manager 
for each municipality and has since identified an estimated 20,000 
volunteers to support them.  LDK's public relations campaign is 
noticeably improved since earlier in the year, and the party now 
speaks with a single, coordinated voice.  The party is also 
employing improved information technology:  SMS technology to 
coordinate campaign operations, modern polling techniques that give 
it current, detailed information on individual municipal races and a 
Facebook page designed to appeal to the country's large youth vote. 
 
... AND AN APPEAL TO THE YOUTH 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) LDK has gone beyond social networking sites to appeal to 
Kosovo's youth vote, most importantly by putting young people on the 
ballot.  At Haziri's urging, LDK has selected over 600 young people 
-- mostly twenty-somethings -- as municipal council candidates, a 
figure that represents 30 percent of the LDK's 2,000 municipal 
council candidates nationwide.  LDK has also actively courted 
younger voters, for example with a national campaign kick-off rally 
October 15 that entertained several thousand mostly young party 
supporters with well-known Kosovo singers and dancers in addition to 
the campaign speeches of party leaders.  LDK has replicated such 
"rock concert" rallies at the municipal level, efforts that stand in 
stark contrast to the conventional rallies of many of its opponents. 
 
 
PRISTINA:  VICTORY PRELUDE TO A LEADERSHIP FIGHT? 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶6. (SBU) In Pristina -- and increasingly throughout the rest of the 
country -- the city's incumbent mayor, Isa Mustafa, is the LDK's 
star attraction in the party's efforts to motivate the base. 
Mustafa appears poised for an easy re-election victory in the 
pivotal race for control of Kosovo's capital and largest city.  His 
performances in televised debates have left his opponents looking 
uninformed, and he has gained national prominence for his recent 
public quarrel with PDK Deputy Prime Minister Hajredin Kuci 
regarding the coalition's stability and his comments suggesting LDK 
dissatisfaction with the party's subservient role to the PDK.  In 
the process, he is, for many voters, taking on the appearance of 
LDK's standard-bearer.  This is a new role for a relative newcomer 
to the party, who previously was known as a competent technocrat 
with an academic background.  A convincing win in Pristina will feed 
speculation that Mustafa has growing ambitions to lead the party. 
If so, a planned party convention in April 2010 could turn into a 
face-off between Mustafa and President Sejdiu for control of LDK. 
Mustafa has significant support from a core of LDK activists -- 
urban elites resentful of being pushed aside by PDK's former KLA 
country bumpkins.  These supporters object to the party's coalition 
with PDK and could back Mustafa in a leadership challenge to 
supplant Sejdiu -- who constitutionally cannot take a hands-on role 
in running the party -- as the LDK's public face and spiritual 
leader.  With speculation among Pristina's political class focusing 
 
PRISTINA 00000493  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
on the prospects of early national elections, a strong showing by 
both Mustafa in Pristina and his party throughout the country could 
be a prelude to LDK withdrawing from government in an attempt to 
force snap elections and to challenge PDK for control of the 
government. 
 
SUHAREKA:  DEFENDING WHAT'S LEFT 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Among the municipalities LDK currently holds, the election 
in Suhareka/Suva Reka in central Kosovo, will be among the most 
fiercely contested and the most closely watched.  Ramush Haradinaj's 
AAK is also targeting the municipality as a way to expand beyond 
western Kosovo.  We met recently with Suhareka's incumbent LDK 
mayor, Sali Asllanaj, who described a large, coordinated and 
invigorated LDK branch organization in full campaign battle mode. 
Asllanaj -- confident, well-spoken and easily conversant in local 
issues -- told us that LDK is better organized for this year's 
elections than it had been in 2004.  However, Asllanaj, a member of 
the LDK Presidency, its highest decision-making body, caustically 
denounced the party for doing nothing in the last two years that 
merited support from Kosovo's voters.  The mayor said he expects a 
comfortable victory in Suhareka/Suva Reka -- probably in the second 
round of voting -- over his AAK opponent (reftel), but he took care 
to tell us that any LDK municipal victories would result from the 
efforts of local leaders, not the party's central leadership. 
Asllanaj specifically faulted senior LDK leaders for not analyzing 
the causes of the party's self-destruction in 2007 and for shirking 
responsibility for the loss.  He also criticized Sejdiu for trying 
to run the party's day-to-day affairs despite the clear legal 
prohibition against him from doing so, remarking that "LDK cannot be 
run over the phone." 
 
GJILAN:  ON THE ATTACK AGAINST PDK 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) LDK is looking at Gjilan/Gnjilane, an eastern Kosovo 
municipality it has traditionally led, as a top prospect for a 
pickup.  Fatmir Rexhepi, mayoral candidate, LDK member of 
parliament, and prominent local businessman, met us recently in a 
large, well-maintained and fully staffed LDK branch office that 
would be the envy of most of Kosovo's national parties.  Rexhepi is 
running on a strong anti-corruption theme against the incumbent PDK 
mayor, Qemajl Mustafa.  Rexhepi told us that he is using several 
high-profile infrastructure projects that should cost a fraction of 
their purported budgets to criticize the PDK municipal government 
for enriching itself at the municipality's expense.  (Note: 
Persistent rumors of skimming from grossly inflated road projects 
have also dogged Prime Minister Thaci's PDK-run central government. 
Credible attacks on PDK municipal candidates for similar graft 
resonate well among a Kosovo electorate that is disaffected by 
growing corruption.  End note)  Rexhepi said incumbent mayor 
Mustafa, an associate of the Prime Minister who was imposed on a 
reluctant Gjilan/Gnjilane PDK branch in 2007, had also antagonized 
the local business community by contracting most of the town's new 
projects to outside companies.  Rexhepi has produced a 
professional-looking, 18-page campaign brochure that details his 
platform to create jobs in Gjilan/Gnjilane over the next four years 
through investment, urban development, and infrastructure 
improvements.  The local LDK branch has sent 20,000 copies of the 
brochure to every family in the municipality; in 2007 the national 
party only reissued its 2004 platform and never bothered to make it 
available to the public.  Rexhepi said internal LDK polls -- a tool 
the party did not employ in 2007 -- show a significant increase in 
voter support for the party in Gjilan/Gnjilane, and told us that he 
expects an LDK victory there this year. 
 
GJAKOVA: COMPETING IN AAK'S BACKYARD 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (SBU) In Gjakova/Djakovica, the LDK is trying to retake one of 
its former municipalities in the heart of Ramush Haradinaj's (AAK) 
western Kosovo base.  LDK mayoral candidate Fehmi Vula, a surgeon 
 
PRISTINA 00000493  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
from a prominent local family and former head of the Kosovo Red 
Cross, told us recently that his campaign is relying heavily on 
local media -- print, radio and television ads -- as well as 
door-to-door campaigning through the municipality and all 86 of its 
surrounding villages.  Like Rexhepi, Vula is focusing on rule-of-law 
issues and job creation as the core of his campaign platform.  And 
like most LDK officials we have spoken to, he also told us that his 
branch has "learned its lesson from 2007" and would have a large 
contingent of well-trained party election observers at polling 
stations to guard against the possibility of electoral fraud, a 
widely rumored though unproven phenomenon in the 2007 vote.  Vula 
said he expected to be in a run-off in December against AAK Mayor 
Pal Lekaj, although recent internal LDK polling showed him tied for 
second against the joint AKR-LDD candidate Mimoza Kusari at 24 
percent, with Lekaj leading the race at 34 percent. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) LDK, the center of morbid speculation about its imminent 
demise just six months ago, is showing new signs of life as a 
national party.  Its devastating loss in 2007 stemmed from 
widespread disillusionment among traditional LDK voters with the 
party's infighting after Rugova's death and its complicity in the 
corruption and incompetence of the AAK-led government of 2004 to 
2007 (reftel).  The post-2007 marriage of convenience with the PDK 
did little to resolve these problems, with LDK often lost in the 
shadow of its much larger coalition partner and Sejdiu unable to 
take a public and leading role in party affairs.  The collapse of 
LDK's electoral support in 2007 was so staggering -- a drop of 
almost 60 percent -- that even a modest improvement, perhaps wooing 
just 20 per cent of those disaffected voters, could be a game 
changer for LDK.  And, although Mayor Asllanaj's criticism of the 
party's leadership for inactivity has some merit, it misses the mark 
in assessing LDK's improving political fortunes.  By all accounts 
LDK is running a disciplined, well-organized campaign and is 
competing for votes as a professionally-run and competently 
organized political party.  Better technical performance, alone, 
will not return LDK to its glory days at the center of Kosovo 
politics; the party also needs a leader who can represent the party 
in a way that President Sejdiu cannot.  Isa Mustafa may fill that 
role, and it is ironic that as he leads the party's political 
resurgence amid scenes of seldom seen party unity, he may also be 
setting the stage for a leadership clash that will pit him against 
President Sejdiu. 
DELL