VZCZCXRO0940
OO RUEHGA RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #0876/01 3142219
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 102218Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0067
INFO ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000876 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: CANADA: CONSERVATIVE BOUNCE FROM BY-ELECTIONS 
 
REF: OTTAWA 858; OTTAWA 777 
 
OTTAWA 00000876  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.   (SBU) Summary: The governing Conservatives added two seats in 
the House of Commons on November 9, after the governing party 
surprisingly won two of four federal by-election victories.  Its 
upset win in rural Quebec suggests the party may at least be back 
in the game in that province.  The Conservatives came a solid 
second in a suburban Vancouver riding, which the New Democratic 
Party (NDP) won.  The NDP placed second in two of the other 
by-elections, and is already boasting that it is the only 
opposition party with "momentum," especially since the Bloc 
Quebecois lost one seat.  The Liberals had not expected to win any 
of the four seats, but finishing third in all four ridings and 
losing vote share in three of four ridings over 2008 forced leader 
Michael Ignatieff to admit publicly that "we have a lot of work 
ahead of us."  Turn-out everywhere was low, and the races largely 
reflected local issues.  Overall, the results were a win-win for 
the Conservatives, who appear to be on the right track to possibly 
winning a majority in the next federal election - whenever that may 
be.  End summary. 
 
 
 
CONSERVATIVES: NOT DEAD IN QUEBEC 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U) In the November 9 federal by-elections (reftels), voter 
turn-out varied between 22.3% and 36.6% in the four races in 
Quebec, Nova Scotia, and British Columbia.  In the eastern Quebec 
riding of Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riveire-du-Loup, 
Conservative Bernard Genereux surprised many observers by retaking 
the riding from the Bloc Quebecois after sixteen years in Bloc 
hands.  A popular local mayor, Genereux defeated Bloc candidate 
Nancy Gagnon by 42.7% to 37.7%.  Federal spending -- and the 
candidate who could best deliver such investment in the future -- 
were the major campaign issues in the essentially two-horse race. 
The Liberal and NDP candidates garnered 13.2% and 4.8% of votes 
cast, respectively. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) In the Montreal-area, the Bloc Quebecois easily held the 
suburban riding of Hochelaga, with 51.2% of the vote.  The new Bloc 
M.P Daniel Paille, a former corporate executive and provincial 
Minister of Industry, is a political heavy-weight with extensive 
business (including U.S.)  and high-level political connections. 
AmConGen Montreal contacts believe Paille will noticeably 
strengthen the Bloc team in Ottawa.  The NDP ran an aggressive 
campaign, and finished a surprising second at 19.5% of the vote, 
edging out the Liberals, who had placed second in the riding in the 
2008 federal election.  The Liberals saw their share of the vote 
slip from 20.6% in 2008 to 14.3% in this vote. 
 
RECLAIMING SEATS IN THE EAST AND WEST 
 
¶4.  (U) In Nova Scotia, the Conservatives easily reclaimed their 
former stronghold of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, 
with 45.8% of the vote.  The NDP finished second at 25.7%.  The 
Liberals produced their best showing of the evening at 21.3%, but 
still trailed in third place. 
 
 
 
¶5.  (U) In British Columbia, the NDP easily held its seat in New 
Westminster-Coquitlam at 49.6% of the vote.  The Conservatives, at 
35.8%, largely maintained their vote share from the 2008 election 
(38.8%), as did the Liberals, at 10.3% (down from 11.2% in 2008, 
however). 
 
 
 
A MORE CONSERVATIVE HOUSE 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U) Following the by-elections, the Conservatives have 145 
seats in the 308-seat House of Commons, the Liberals 77, the Bloc 
Quebecois 48, and the NDP 37 seats.  There is one Independent.  As 
the Independent MP tends to vote as a Conservative, Prime Minister 
Stephen Harper is now nine seats short of a working majority. 
 
 
 
LIBERAL LAMENT 
 
 
 
¶7.  (U)  Once the outcome of the by-election votes was clear, 
 
OTTAWA 00000876  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Ignatieff issued a statement congratulating the winners and 
thanking the Liberal candidates, but admitting that "we have a lot 
of work ahead of us."  He emphasized that "our job in the months 
ahead is to earn the confidence and support of the Canadians." 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Comment:  By-elections traditionally favor opposition 
parties, so the Conservatives' performance was especially notable. 
These four local races were the voters' first opportunity to render 
judgment on the Conservatives' handling of the recession, as well 
as on Ignatieff's leadership of the Liberal party.  Going into the 
campaign, the Conservatives had downplayed expectations, while 
quietly throwing significant resources into the races and these 
ridings, particularly in Quebec.  Their upset win in eastern Quebec 
suggests the party remains competitive in the province -- contrary 
to most polls - at least in selected, targeted rural ridings. 
However, AmConGen Quebec City contacts cautioned that the 
Conservatives will have to deliver on their "get back on the side 
in power" campaign in the next federal election against a concerted 
Bloc push to get out the vote.  The results are a win-win for the 
governing party, confirming trends in recent polls showing the 
Conservatives strengthening across the country and apparently on 
track with a growing number of voters.  The NDP has also succeeded 
in aggressively opposing the government while refraining from 
bringing it down (using the excuse of Employment Insurance 
legislation).  In contrast, the results had absolutely no silver 
lining for the Liberals, whose morale must be even lower after 
these by-elections, with no clear path for any quick rebounding. 
The Conservatives are clearly again eyeing a possible majority win 
in the next federal election, whenever it will be -- but almost 
certainly sometime in 2010. 
JACOBSON