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O 051955Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0043
INFO ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000858 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: CANADA BY-ELECTIONS: CAN LIBERALS ARREST SLUMP? 
 
REF: OTTAWA 766; OTTAWA 777 
 
OTTAWA 00000858  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Voters go to the polls in four federal 
by-elections in Quebec, Nova Scotia, and British Columbia on 
November 9 (ref a).  Although the contests will not change the 
balance of power in the House of Commons, pundits are looking for 
signs that the federal Liberals can pull themselves together in the 
face of slumping national polls - even though the Liberals are 
unlikely to win any of the four seats.  A competitive Liberal 
finish in at least one of the two Quebec by-elections would go some 
way toward putting the party's recent troubles in Quebec (ref b) 
behind it.  On October 27, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff hired 
veteran strategist Peter Donolo as his new Chief of Staff in an 
effort to "right the Liberal ship."  For their part, the surging 
Conservatives are sitting pretty, with nothing to lose and 
something to gain through at least second place showings in two 
ridings, a chance to reclaim a traditional seat, and a crack at an 
upset.  End summary. 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) On October 4, PM Stephen Harper called two federal 
by-elections in Quebec, and one each in British Columbia and Nova 
Scotia, for November 9.  The Bloc Quebecois held the Quebec 
"ridings" (districts) of Hochelaga (Montreal) and 
Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup.  In British Columbia, 
the New Democratic Party (NDP) held New Westminster-Coquitlam 
(Vancouver), and Conservative-turned-Independent MP Bill Casey held 
the rural Nova Scotia riding of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit 
Valley. 
 
 
 
JOSTLING FOR SECOND PLACE IN QUEBEC? 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) The two vacant Quebec seats have been Bloc Quebecois 
strongholds since 1993, and their most recent incumbents had won 
significant pluralities in 2008.  In Hochelaga (Montreal), the Bloc 
won the seat with 49.6% of the vote in 2008, to the second-place 
Liberal with 20.6%.  In the current race, Bloc candidate Daniel 
Paille, a former Quebec Minster of Industry and Trade and now a 
professor at Montreal's highly regarded economic graduate school 
(HEC), has emphasized economic development, social security, 
language, and culture.  According to local media, the main fight is 
for second place in this urban, strongly sovereignist suburban 
riding.  His principal challenger is Liberal candidate Robert 
David, a university lecturer. David's campaign has emphasized both 
social issues and his close friendship with federal Liberal leader 
Michael Ignatieff, whom he met while studying public administration 
at Harvard University.  The Conservatives and the NDP have run 
aggressive campaigns.  The Conservatives have relied heavily on 
telephone and recorded messages promoting the government's economic 
stimulus program, while the NDP has underscored its support of the 
French language, including sponsoring a recent debate in Ottawa 
reinforcing the need for immigrants to Quebec to learn French 
"first and foremost," and fielding a number of French-speaking NDP 
MPs in the riding, including the party's sole federal Quebec MP, 
Thomas Mulcair (Outremont), trade critic Peter Julian, critic for 
the francophonie Claude Gravelle, official languages critic Yvon 
Godin, and the youngest MP in the Commons, Niki Ashton. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) In Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup, the 
Conservatives reportedly believe they have a chance to retake the 
sprawling, rural eastern Quebec riding after sixteen years in Bloc 
hands, despite polls that have the party well behind the Bloc 
Quebecois.  The Conservatives finished second in the riding -- with 
30% to the Bloc's 46% -- in the 2008 federal election, but managed 
to halve the Bloc's plurality over its score in 2006.  The 
candidates' ability to deliver federal funding for the riding and 
infrastructure has dominated the race, as well as constituency 
issues.  Conservative candidate Bernard Genereux, a local mayor and 
businessman, is running against well-connected Bloc insider Nancy 
Gagnon, a communications advisor to Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe and 
a former assistant to Bloc House leader Pierre Paquette.  Observers 
believe Liberal candidate Marcel Catellier to be a distant third, 
but Quebec Liberal lieutenant Marc Garneau has dropped in to help 
campaign, as well as Garneau's immediate predecessor, Denis 
Coderre, who spent October 26 campaigning in the riding in what 
many saw as a possible sign that Liberal rifts may be healing. 
AmConGen Quebec City contacts have noted with interest that Prime 
Minister Stephen Harper is the only federal party leader who has 
not visited the riding (so far) in this campaign, and predicted a 
low turn-out (as is the norm for by-elections generally). 
 
OTTAWA 00000858  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
A "PHOTO FINISH" IN B.C.? 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) In British Columbia, the race for New 
Westminster-Coquitlam is tight, according to AmConGen Vancouver 
contacts.  The local media has predicted a "photo finish" between 
the NDP and the Conservatives, each of which has held the riding at 
various points in recent years.  The NDP recaptured it in 2006, and 
held it in 2008 by a slim 3% over the Conservative candidate (41.8% 
to 38.8%).  In 2008, the Liberal candidate trailed at 11.2%, and 
the Liberal candidate in this race is "a relative unknown," 
according to one local commentator.  Both the NDP and Conservative 
candidates have municipal political experience.  A local EKOS poll 
suggests that women may sway the vote in this race, but it is still 
unclear whether their votes will flow to the NDP due to its strong 
stance on women's issues, or to the Conservatives' "tough on crime" 
female candidate.  The Conservatives' law and order agenda played 
well in the riding in 2008.   For the NDP, the race has also been 
an opportunity to test the impact of its opposition to the blending 
of the federal and provincial sales taxes into one harmonized sales 
tax (HST) in the province, according to NDP national director Brad 
Lavigne.  The province will implement the HST on July 1, 2010. 
Lavigne underscored that the NDP is the sole party unequivocally 
against the tax, and the party hopes that public anger will 
motivate voters to vote. 
 
 
 
RETURN TO THE FOLD IN NOVA SCOTIA, OR TAKE A CHANCE ON THE NEW? 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) Observers in the rural riding of 
Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley (Nova Scotia) will look 
to see whether traditional Conservative voters return to the fold. 
The seat is a longtime Conservative stronghold, but voters 
re-elected Conservative-turned-Independent MP Bill Casey with 69% 
of the vote in the 2008 federal election after PM Harper expelled 
him from caucus in 2007 for voting against the federal budget. 
Strong Conservative support on November 4 in the House of Commons 
for a Conservative private member's bill to abolish the long-gun 
registry could play well in the rural riding.  The federal NDP is 
reportedly anxious to test the coattails of the popular Nova Scotia 
NDP, which won a historic majority government in the province in 
June.  The Nova Scotia NDP won the staunchly Conservative riding of 
neighboring Cumberland North in June, and some local media have 
suggested that the NDP may have surged in the late stages of the 
race (based on a strong provincial NDP ground-game, and residual 
animosity toward PM Harper over Casey's expulsion) and could be on 
track for an upset win.  The Liberal candidate has also attempted 
to capitalize on Casey's ejection, but local Liberal organization 
is reportedly weak after the June provincial election, in which it 
won only 11 seats in the 52-seat provincial legislature.  Federal 
Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has visited the riding to bolster 
support in a campaign that regional media suggest will turn on very 
local issues. 
 
 
 
REFOCUSING THE LIBERAL MESSAGE 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) In Ottawa, Ignatieff has moved to lift morale in the face 
of sliding national polls that shown Liberal support even below 
that for his predecessor, Stephane Dion.  An October 26 Ipsos Reid 
poll reported Liberal support at 25%, compared to 26.3% for Dion in 
the 2008 election.  In the same poll, the Conservatives surged to 
40% nationally, and to 41% to the Liberals' 32% even in the Liberal 
heartland of Ontario.  On October 27, Ignatieff shook up his inner 
circle, replacing loyalist Ian Davey (one of his "+2" for his 
February 19 meeting with President Obama, as well as for a October 
23 lunch with Ambassador Jacobson) with Liberal PM Jean 
Chretien-era strategist veteran Peter Donolo as Chief of Staff. 
The turn-over was confused, with Davey's romantic partner, 
Ignatieff's Communications Director Jill Fairbrother, publicly 
denying the appointment while Ignatieff simultaneously announced it 
to reporters.  Davey reportedly remains in Ignatieff's office as an 
advisor. 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Donolo left a partnership with leading polling firm "The 
Strategic Counsel" to join Ignatieff, and is described as savvy, 
 
OTTAWA 00000858  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
experienced, and well plugged-in to the press corps.  Observers 
credited Donolo with crafting focused messaging for Chretien with 
populist appeal to "Main Street" voters.   In public comments, 
Liberal MPs expressed relief at Donolo's arrival, with one 
observing that "we feel like a fever has broken... we're on the 
mend."  National President of the Liberal Party Alf Apps noted that 
"nuts and bolts" membership and fundraising groundwork has already 
been done, but the focus now has to shift to content and messaging: 
"Peter understands what it takes to put the winning formula back 
together again."  Donolo insisted publicly that he wants to take a 
low profile for the time being.  Conservative Party contacts have 
commented privately to PolMinCouns, however, that Donolo's 
experience was exclusively in government, never in opposition - a 
very different set of skills. 
 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The upcoming by-elections are a mixed bag and -- given 
the traditionally lower voter turn-out in by-election races -- 
appear likely to turn less on national than on local issues.  With 
nothing to lose, the surging Conservatives are sitting pretty, 
hoping for at least second place showings in target suburban and 
Quebec ridings, a chance to reclaim a traditional seat, and a crack 
at an upset.  In contrast, the Liberals similarly have no seats to 
lose, but are under pressure to show that they have turned the 
corner, particularly in Quebec.  Expectations for Donolo are 
exceptionally - perhaps impossibly -- high, but his arrival is too 
recent to have a genuine impact on the Liberals' fortunes in the 
by-elections.  The NDP will be looking for confirmation that its 
recent about-face on supporting the minority Conservatives in the 
House of Commons has not alienated its traditional base.  End 
Comment. 
 
 
 
¶10.  (U)  This message was in collaboration with AmConGens Quebec 
City, Montreal, Halifax, and Vancouver. 
JACOBSON