VZCZCXYZ0001
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNY #0739/01 3341525
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 301525Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY OSLO
TO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 OSLO 000739 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FROM AMBASSADOR WHITE FOR THE PRESIDENT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2019 
TAGS: OVIP PGOV PREL ECON ETRD SENV MOPS NO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO OSLO 
 
OSLO 00000739  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Barry B. White for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
  ¶1.  (S) Mr. President, your visit to Oslo to accept the 
Nobel Peace Prize is of great significance to the Norwegians. 
 Norway is a geographically mid-sized country with a 
population on par with Colorado, and, according to the IMF, a 
2009 GDP per capita just below 100,000 USD - surpassed in the 
world only by Qatar and Luxembourg, which have much smaller 
populations.  Historically, Norway was one of the poorest 
countries in Europe, but the discovery of North Sea oil in 
the late sixties provided an enormous economic boost and a 
mini-trust fund for all Norwegian citizens.  Ranked in 2009 
as the best place in the world to live by the UN Development 
Program Human Development Index, Norwegians view themselves 
as inherently egalitarian, and the oil wealth is shared 
throughout society through a generous welfare program.  Much 
of the vast wealth has been 
reserved in an enormous Government Pension Fund for future 
generations, currently worth over USD 450 billion.  Norway's 
government prides itself on its international engagement:  it 
expends over 1% of GDP for development assistance and strives 
to maintain its image as a facilitator of peace negotiations. 
 Norway also takes in several thousand refugees each year; 
although a homogenous society just over two decades ago, 26% 
of Oslo's population today comes from recent immigrants, 
primarily from Poland, Pakistan, Sweden, Iraq, and Somalia. 
 
¶2.  (S) Norway's King, His Majesty King Harald V, is cordial 
and friendly.  When I presented my credentials in November, 
he reminisced about the time he spent at the White House with 
President Roosevelt during World War II.  His fondness for 
the United States is echoed throughout Norway's older 
generations, given the close ties created through extensive 
immigration from Norway to the U.S. in the 19th and 20th 
centuries, and also due to U.S. assistance to Norway 
throughout the Cold War.  You personally are very popular 
with Norwegians of all backgrounds and ages, and your 
presidency has boosted U.S. popularity among the younger 
generations:  Fulbright applications from Norway increased 
this year by 30 percent.  Prime Minister Stoltenberg holds 
you in high regard and very much looks forward to your visit. 
 He also told me he is eager to visit you in the White House. 
 The Prime Minister recently published a book entitled 
""Conversations"" on discussions with his father, Thorvald 
Stoltenberg, who is a well-regarded Norwegian Labor party 
politician and former foreign minister. 
 
-------------- 
Foreign Policy 
-------------- 
 
¶3.  (S) The Nobel Peace Prize shines an exclusive spotlight 
for a few moments each year on this country of mountains, 
fjords, and vast quantities of natural resources. 
Ultimately, awarding you the Prize is the Norwegian Nobel 
Committee's way of welcoming your presence on the world 
stage.  The Prize demonstrates their approval of your goal to 
free the world from nuclear weapons, your commitment to 
reversing global climate change, your promotion of dialogue 
and multilateral engagement to achieve foreign policy goals, 
including sustainable economic growth in developing nations, 
and even your desire to bring universal health care to 
Americans.  Norway's Foreign Minister Stoere returned from 
the UN General Assembly (UNGA) enthusiastic about your 
ambitions and goals, and determined to hitch Norway's bold 
international agenda to your cart.  Ministry of Foreign 
Affairs officials regularly tell my staff that your speeches 
in Cairo, at the United Nations Security Council's Special 
Session on Disarmament, and your UNGA speech were ""music to 
their ears.""  They view your presidency as having the 
capacity and global influence to achieve the goals that 
Norway has historically sought to achieve.  They want to help 
you and the United States succeed in your ambitious global 
agenda.  Your visit presents an opportunity to thank the 
Norwegians publicly for their steadfast support and, 
privately, to lay out any specific requests for how they 
might do more, whether on Afghanistan, Iran, the Middle East, 
or elsewhere. 
 
¶4.  (S) Many of Norway's international goals mesh neatly with 
several of your own.  During my initial meeting with Prime 
Minister Stoltenberg on November 27, it was clear that he is 
eager to highlight U.S.- Norwegian bilateral cooperation 
during your visit.  Stoltenberg formed his third cabinet in 
October, and his Labor Party has a strong grip on government, 
with his two other much smaller coalition partners weakened 
by poor showings in September 2009 national elections.  In 
particular, Stoltenberg seeks our global cooperation on 
maternal and child health (safe birth), carbon capture and 
storage, and deforestation.  Stoltenberg is personally 
 
OSLO 00000739  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
committed to addressing climate change.  The Norwegian 
population shares the Norwegian government's efforts to 
protect the environment, as reflected in the past awarding of 
the Nobel Peace Prize to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on 
Climate Change and to former Vice-president Al Gore in 2007. 
Norway has been active in COP-15 preparatory meetings, and 
maintains that developed countries should take on quantified 
emissions reduction commitments while developing countries 
should receive technological and financial support.  Norway 
is investing heavily in carbon capture and storage technology 
in hopes that it will play a significant role in emissions 
reductions, and is a partner in the U.S.-led Carbon 
Sequestration Leadership Forum.  Norway also works closely 
with us in the Arctic Council, where we co-chair a task force 
on search and rescue capacity to support increased shipping 
traffic in the Arctic as the polar ice melts. 
 
---------------------- 
Energy and the Economy 
---------------------- 
 
¶5.  (S) While Norwegians pride themselves on their climate 
change policy and maintain one of the cleanest oil and gas 
production systems in the world, they understand the paradox 
their efforts represent, given that Norway's wealth comes 
mostly from the oil and gas industry.  Indeed, energy is at 
the heart of the U.S. - Norway economic relationship, with 
nearly 70% of Norway's total exports to the U.S. coming from 
crude oil and petroleum products, and with about 60% of U.S. 
direct investment in Norway in the offshore petroleum sector. 
 Norway, as the world's fifth largest exporter of oil and 
third largest exporter of natural gas, plays a key 
stabilizing role in global energy markets and in Europe's 
energy security.  Norway serves as a reliable counter-weight 
to Russia's decidedly mixed record on energy security. 
Norwegians are also keen to emphasize indicators other than 
the oil and gas industry that demonstrate their economic 
success.  For example, they are the second largest exporter 
of seafood after China, and their maritime shipping industry 
is the fifth largest in world. 
-------------------------------- 
Russia and the Arctic High North 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (S) Russia is a significant bilateral partner for Norway, 
particularly in one area cited time and again by Norwegian 
officials as Norway's top foreign and defense priority:  the 
Arctic High North.  Norway and Russia share a significant 
land frontier and a vast maritime border at the top of the 
world, but their proximity has never led to outright 
conflict, although they did sit on opposing sides during the 
Cold War.  Norway welcomes your efforts to reset the U.S.- 
Russia relationship.  Norwegian officials regularly point out 
the deep historical and cultural ties between the indigenous 
Sami people of the Barents region, Norwegian partnership with 
Russia in that country's Shtokman gas field project, and the 
highly successful fisheries resource cooperation as evidence 
of their productive bilateral relationship.  Norway has never 
been invaded by Russia, and in fact, Russian forces liberated 
northern Norway from Nazi occupation.  However, regardless of 
the publicly touted excellent relationship, Norway maintains 
wary eyes on its large neighbor.  Norway is one of our most 
reliable partners in gathering and sharing intelligence on 
Russian activities, a highly important element of our 
relationship that necessarily has to stay out of the public 
spotlight.  Norway also works quietly to counter-balance 
Russia's growing influence and adventurism by increasing 
international engagement in, and attention to, the Arctic 
High North.  On security matters, Norway is lobbying for 
NATO's new Strategic Concept to balance NATO's current focus 
on ""out of area"" operations with improved coordination and 
capacity to protect NATO homeland territory.  Norway is also 
looking to redefine NATO's position in regards to nuclear 
deterrence, and Stoltenberg told me he is looking forward to 
participating your April 2010 Nuclear Security Summit. 
 
-------------------- 
NATO and Afghanistan 
-------------------- 
 
¶7.  (S) Norway is a steadfast NATO ally, demonstrated through 
polling data that regularly shows Norway to have one of the 
highest levels of domestic support for the alliance. 
Stoltenberg has said that Norway will remain in Afghanistan 
as long as NATO remains, and there is minimal public pressure 
for Norway to withdraw its forces.  Indeed, polling shows 
steady Norwegian public in support for Norway's role in 
Afghanistan.  Norway's contribution of about 500 troops to 
Afghanistan is significant given the country's population and 
- taken together with Norway's deployments to the EU 
 
OSLO 00000739  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
counter-piracy mission and the UN field hospital in Chad - 
represents almost all of the country's deployable forces. 
Stoltenberg's Foreign Ministry emphasizes Norway's civilian 
contributions to Afghanistan: it provides about $130 million 
per year in assistance, including support to international 
trust funds for the Afghan military and police forces. 
 
---- 
Iran 
---- 
 
¶8.  (S) Norway is committed to a negotiated settlement to the 
standoff over Iran's nuclear program and is a strong 
supporter of P5 1 positions, including both political 
pressure and additional sanctions.  Norway's MFA has 
indicated that new sanctions on Iran adopted by the UN or the 
EU would be the easiest and quickest for them to enact, since 
such sanctions would not require complex legal procedures in 
their system.  Stoltenberg's government sees Iran's failure 
to be transparent as negatively affecting Norway's own global 
disarmament and nonproliferation goals.  Norway's state-owned 
oil company, Statoil, has investments in Iran's energy sector 
but is scaling back in-country operations and has committed 
to making no new investments there. 
 
---------------------- 
Mid-East Peace Process 
---------------------- 
 
¶9.  (S) During the Oslo Peace Process of the 1990s, Norway 
hosted Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, and the Nobel 
Committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994 to Yasser 
Arafat, Shimon Peres, and Yitzhak Rabin.  Tragically, Rabin 
was assassinated a year later by a figure opposed to his 
peace overtures.  Subsequently, Norway has played a 
diminishing, often independent, and sometimes unhelpful role 
in the Middle East.  Norway strongly believes it should 
engage everyone, including Hamas, which it has not designated 
as a terrorist organization, unlike the United States and the 
European Union.  In a break with the international Quartet, 
Norway recognized the Hamas-Fatah Unity Government in 2007. 
Norway more helpfully serves as a highly effective Co-Chair 
of the Ad-Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC), the main 
international donor group for coordinating economic 
assistance to the Palestinian Authority, and works to keep 
AHLC activities in concert with the political track of 
negotiations led by the U.S.  Norway's relations with Israel 
have been strained in recent years due to its contact with 
Hamas, Norwegian disapproval of Israeli actions during the 
fighting in Gaza last winter, and periodic, privately-led 
boycott campaigns against Israeli businesses and 
universities. The Norwegian Government fully supports your 
intensive efforts to restart direct Israeli-Palestinian 
negotiations.  Norwegian and Israeli officials told us this 
fall that Norway has now initiated steps to improve the 
bilateral relationship with Israel, including through 
scientific or other exchanges and other activities.  In early 
November, the government publicly condemned a private effort 
at a university in Trondheim to boycott Israeli academics, 
defining the effort as contrary to academic freedom. The 
university's board ultimately unanimously rejected the 
boycott proposal a few days later on November 12. 
 
-------------------- 
Guantanamo Detainees 
-------------------- 
 
¶10.  (S) The Norwegian government has so far declined to 
resettle detainees from Guantanamo (GTMO) in Norway, due to a 
combination of domestic politics, lack of security 
service/surveillance resources, and weak anti-terrorism laws. 
 Although the outlook is not favorable, the Norwegians have 
not closed the door completely.  Despite publicly calling 
resettlement of GTMO detainees ""purely a U.S. 
responsibility,"" Stoltenberg's Foreign Minister Stoere has 
privately told me and Secretary Clinton that he would prefer 
to talk quietly with us on this issue, out of the media 
spotlight. 
WHITE