VZCZCXRO9011
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHNM #0862/01 3081701
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 041701Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY NIAMEY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5427
INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 1690
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0317
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0216
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME 0012
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 0016
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NIAMEY 000862 
 
SIPDIS 
AIDAC 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, EEB/TPP/MTAA/ABT, AND AF/PDPA 
PLS PASS USAID/AFR/WA NFREEMAN, LDOORES-FENDELL, GBERTOLIN 
OFDA/W FOR ACONVERY, CCHAN, FSHANKS, MSHIRLEY, JMCINTOSH 
FFP/W FOR JBORNS, ASINK, TMCRAE 
ACCRA ALSO FOR AFR/WA 
DAKAR FOR RDAVIS 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
ROME FOR US MISSION RNEWBERG, HSPANOS 
BRUSSELS FOR USAID PBROWN 
NEW YORK FOR DMERCADO 
NSC FOR CPRATT 
 
E.O.  12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR PGOV EAID SOCI NG
SUBJECT:  Niger: Food Insecurity Disaster Alert 
 
Ref:  Niamey 00813 
 
NIAMEY 00000862  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  This message provides an alert that Niger may be 
moving towards a full-scale disaster declaration.  The Government of 
Niger (GON) Ministry of Agricultural Development (MDA) released the 
"Pre-Evaluation and Provisional Results of the Agricultural Season - 
2009/2010," indicating a cereals harvest 28 percent lower than 2008. 
 Moreover, the Office of the Prime Minister released the "Monthly 
Bulletin of Information on National Food Security" with an alert of 
impending problems.  FEWSNET is reporting a food security alert, and 
notes that "production deficits will drive increased food insecurity 
in Niger in 2010."  The FEWS-NET alert notes that food assistance 
needs are expected to be large and begin early.  Post continues to 
receive alarming reports from the field about the seriousness of the 
food insecurity situation.  End summary. 
 
MDA Assessment: Cereals Production Down 28 Percent 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶2. (U) The MDA recently issued its assessment of the 2009 rain-fed 
agricultural production campaign.  MDA's estimation is based on a 
sample of 9,195 households in 96 agricultural villages monitored 
throughout Niger.  Based on this survey of observed yields, 
multiplied by an estimation of land planted, the 2009 gross rain-fed 
production of cereals is estimated at 3,575,315 tons.  When compared 
to the 2008 harvest of 4,956,915 tons, the 2009 rain-fed cereals 
production is 27.87% less than that of 2008.  In absolute terms, the 
2009 cereals production is 1,381,600 tons less than the 2008 
production.  The report indicates an equally poor harvest of cowpeas 
(black-eyed peas), peanuts, and sesame.  The main determinant of the 
final harvest and its reduction from last year was the late start, 
early conclusion, and frequent interruption of the rains. 
 
2009 Production to Lag Consumption by 290k MT 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶3. (U) According to the assessment, the yields for the 2009 crop 
season are down 17.69% compared to 2008, and down 11.97% for millet 
and 27.04% for sorghum compared to an average of the last three 
years.  Less area was planted successfully, as seeds failed to 
germinate early in the season.  According to MDA's report, the 
balance between production and the consumption requirement for an 
estimated population of 14,626,346 is a negative 289,985 MT.  This 
is mitigated somewhat by stocks on hand and anticipated imports. 
One very important chart in the report indicates that within the 
seven regions of the country, 16 departments have produced modest 
surpluses, four seem to be in balance, and 16 are deficit with 
respect to needs.  All departments of Diffa and Agadez are deficit, 
while four out of six in Tillaberi are negative. 
 
Cereal Prices Higher than Five-Year Average 
------------------------------------------- 
¶4. (U) The October 15 edition of the National Food Crisis Prevention 
and Management Mechanism monthly bulletin on food security and 
nutrition notes that following the new harvest, and imports from 
Benin and Nigeria, cereals supply improved in cereal markets in 
September.  Thus cereals prices have decreased compared to their 
levels in August 2009.  Millet is down minus 9%, maize 4%, and 
sorghum 6%.  Compared to the average cereals price over the last 
five years, however, the current level of cereal prices remain 22% 
higher for millet, 18% for sorghum, and 26% for imported rice.  This 
situation does not favor the vast majority of households with low 
purchasing power. 
 
Nutrition Centers' Admissions Up; Migration High and Early 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
¶5. (U) The monthly bulletin reports that with respect to nutrition, 
the epidemiology systems registered an increase in admissions to 
nutrition centers.  There were 18,693 admissions in August 2009 
compared 7,615 admissions in August 2008.  Eighty per cent of the 
new admissions are in the Maradi and Zinder regions.  The October 
report concluded that there will be problems with respect to 
availability and access to cereals resulting from agriculture 
 
NIAMEY 00000862  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
production and animal forage deficits in some of the agricultural 
and pastoral zones, the high levels of under-nutrition observed in 
some regions of the country, the agriculture production deficit in 
northern Nigeria, and locust attacks in Mauritania.  Early recourse 
to survival/coping strategies, an increase in admission to health 
centers, and high levels of human and animal migration indicate that 
the situation is already deteriorating. 
 
FEWSNET Calls Situation a "Food Security Alert" 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶6. (SBU) The FEWSNET report of October 27 is called a "Food Security 
Alert," and is headlined "Production Deficits will Drive Increased 
Food Insecurity in Niger in 2010."  The full one-page alert with map 
is available at the FEWS.NET/Niger web site.  The alert concludes by 
stating that "Even with reduced food production, food availability 
is expected to be sufficient through December 2009, and access will 
be facilitated by high demand for migrant labor in cities and border 
towns, strong incentives for off-season market gardening, favorable 
exchange rates for importing cereals from neighboring Nigeria, the 
arrival of irrigated rice harvests from the Niger River in 
November/December, and targeted interventions by the government and 
partners.  Provided that a favorable economic climate persists, food 
insecurity will be moderate through December.  Thereafter, declining 
food stocks, rising cereal prices, and falling livestock prices will 
reduce household purchasing power, causing moderate to high food 
insecurity, especially among agro pastoral and pastoral households, 
through August 2010.  Food assistance needs are expected to be 
large, and to begin earlier than normal, yet government procurement 
plans are insufficient, and the WFP pipeline is limited.  To address 
likely food deficits in 2010, affected areas need immediate 
assistance to encourage off-season production (i.e., agricultural 
inputs) as well as resources to rebuild community cereal and animal 
feed banks." 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶7. (SBU) None of the above three reports mentions a possible number 
or per cent of the population that might be in need of assistance. 
Only the FEWSNET report communicates any sense of urgency.  The 
senior GON authorities have demonstrated persistent reluctance to 
acknowledge the possibility of a crisis or an emergency, and have 
threatened others who may make that claim.  UN agencies and NGOs are 
already manifesting extreme reticence.  There are analysts close to 
or inside the GON who believe cereal production numbers are 
inflated.  The vulnerability assessment now underway, however, might 
provide some parameters.  The mission continues to get an increasing 
number of credible reports of a very serious situation developing 
across the country.  Households with failed harvests and no assets 
find themselves unable to access what might be available locally. 
Some regional government officials are using the words "catastrophe" 
or "disaster."  FEWSNET does go so far as to say food assistance 
needs are expected to be large.  The Mission recommends early 
planning for a worst-case scenario until proven otherwise. 
Therefore, the Mission has determined that a disaster alert is 
appropriate at this time.  End comment. 
 
ALLEN