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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002354 
 
C O R R E C T E D COPY - (PARA MARKINGS) 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS, DRL, DS/IP/SCA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM EAGR IN
SUBJECT: TURBULENCE IN PARLIAMENT AWAITS PRIME MINISTER ON RETURN 
FROM THE UNITED STATES 
 
NEW DELHI 00002354  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Reftel: 09 New Delhi 2330 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The winter session of Parliament kicked off on a 
stormy note on November 19 as the opposition parties brought 
parliament and the capital to a halt over the issue of sugarcane 
prices to farmers.  The Opposition effectively mobilized over 25,000 
farmers from western Uttar Pradesh to rally outside of the 
Parliament, while opposition leaders united on the parliament floor. 
Revealing a surprising lack of confidence, the government quickly 
folded to the farmers' demands, with the Prime Minister, Rahul 
Gandhi, and Finance Minister Mukherjee springing to action.  Given 
the reinvigorated Opposition and tight schedule, the government may 
find it challenging to push through its ambitious agenda of 62 new 
pieces of legislation, from women's empowerment initiatives to 
judicial reform.  The Cabinet approved the Civil Liability for 
Nuclear Damage Bill on November 19, paving the way for its 
introduction to parliament.  In the run up to the UN Climate Change 
Conference in Copenhagen, the government may also face a fierce 
challenge to legislation on climate change, a contentious new issue 
on the domestic political scene.  With the opposition parties 
determined to confront the government on a host of issues, Prime 
Minister Singh may need to rally his United Progressive Alliance 
(UPA) upon returning from the United States to assure some 
legislative successes and prevent a political battering by the 
opposition in the winter session.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Caned by Sugarcane 
------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) On November 19, the Winter Session of Parliament began on a 
stormy note as the opposition parties' plan to put the government on 
the defensive succeeded.  Effectively holding Parliament hostage on 
its opening day, the parties forced an adjournment of the Lok Sabha 
(lower house of parliament) within minutes of its start.  The 
Opposition seized upon a seemingly obscure issue -- the government's 
proposed legislation to rework the support prices paid to farmers for 
sugarcane produce.  However, the issue proved an effective rallying 
cry to over a rent-a-mob of 25,000 farmers bused in from western 
Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) who brought the capital to a standstill with 
raucous protests in the city center. 
 
¶3. (U) The sugarcane issue provided a convenient way for the 
Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to raise 
their profiles after suffering humiliating defeats in the recent U.P. 
by-elections (reftel).  SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav barely allowed 
Speaker Meira Kumar to finish reading the customary obituary 
references in the opening session before storming the floor yelling 
"stop the robbery of sugarcane farmers."  Yadav was soon joined by 
BJP leaders Rajnath Singh and Sushma Swaraj, as well as party chiefs 
from Janata Dal (United) and the left parties.  To the government's 
discomfort, one of its allies, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party of 
Tamil Nadu, joined the opposition parties in the protest.  The 
Speaker eventually gave up, adjourning the session before it began. 
 
¶4. (U) Clearly rattled by the Opposition's ability to mobilize such a 
massive protest, the government agreed to make amendments to the 
pricing legislation to ensure a better price for farmers.  Rahul 
Gandhi met with Prime Minister Singh to discuss the sugarcane issue 
hours after Parliament adjourned.  The PM reportedly told Gandhi "to 
amend the ordinance suitably if it was against the interest of 
farmers."  In another indication of the protests' impact on the 
government, Finance Minister and top political fixer Pranab Mukherjee 
invited parliamentary leaders for a breakfast meeting on November 23 
to discuss the issue. 
 
Ambitious Agenda 
---------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The winter session's limited 22-day sitting will force the 
government to hustle in order to push through an ambitious schedule 
of 62 pieces of legislation.  Some legislation highlights include: 
the eagerly awaited Equal Opportunity Commission Bill; legislation to 
 
NEW DELHI 00002354  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
reform judicial standards and accountability; the Pension Fund 
Regulatory and Development Authority Bill to officially establish a 
pension regulator and allow up to 26 percent foreign direct 
investment (FDI) in pension fund managers; the Foreign Contribution 
Bill to regulate contributions to non-profit organizations from 
foreign sources; the Constitutional Amendment Bill to roll out the 
new Direct Tax Code and the Goods and Services Tax; and the 
reservation of 50 percent of seats in village and urban councils for 
women.  The women's reservation bill at the local level signals a 
positive step for women's empowerment, but falls short of President 
Prathiba Patil's promise to push through more sweeping empowerment 
initiatives in the UPA's first 100 days.  The more contentious 
legislation to reserve 33 percent of seats in parliament for women is 
unlikely to be passed in this session.  Missing from the schedule 
list of legislation is the Insurance Bill, which would increase FDI 
in the insurance sector from 26 percent to 49 percent. 
 
Civ Nuke: Liability Legislation to Parliament 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶6. (U) We will closely monitor the progress of the Civil Liability 
for Nuclear Damage Bill, which outlines guidelines and compensation 
standards to be paid in case of a nuclear accident.  This domestic 
legislation is the key next step toward India's ratification of the 
Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage, a 
prerequisite for U.S. companies seeking to establish nuclear power 
plants in India.  The cabinet approved the bill November 19, paving 
the way for its introduction in parliament.  The bill is on the list 
of legislative items planned for action by Parliament this term, but 
Parliament is unlikely to consider the bill before PM Singh meets 
President Obama in Washington on November 24.  NSA Narayanan 
privately assured the Ambassador November 19 that the Singh 
government would "push hard" for adoption of the liability 
legislation during the winter session. 
 
Copenhagen Sensitivities 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Climate change has emerged as a contentious issue on the 
domestic political scene, with sensitivities heightened in the lead 
up to Copenhagen.  The government is considering plans to introduce 
legislation to strengthen certain aspects of its National Action Plan 
on Climate Change during the session, but may face a fierce challenge 
from opposition parties accusing the UPA of "selling out" to the U.S. 
 The BJP and the Left have made statements opposing any political 
concessions before December.  The Left advised the government to 
"firmly resist pressure from the U.S. and other advanced countries to 
abandon the Kyoto Protocol and UNFCCC framework and stick to the 
principle of common but differentiated responsibility."  The 
Opposition has also pounced on perceived differences between the 
Prime Minister's Special Envoy for Climate Change Shyam Saran and 
Minister for Environment and Forests Jairam Ramesh.  BJP leader 
Sushma Swaraj accused the government of "speaking in different 
voices" on climate change and called for a government-wide discussion 
of the issue. 
 
Opposition Agenda 
----------------- 
 
¶8. (U) The Opposition plans to derail the government's ambitious 
agenda for the winter session with scandals and security issues. 
High on the opposition's list are scandals that have come to light in 
the past two months, including the mining scandal allegedly involving 
former Jharkhand Chief Minister Madhu Khoda and other UPA 
politicians.  The Opposition will demand full disclosure from the 
government on who benefitted from kickbacks and payoffs from this 
scam.  The Opposition will also focus on the alleged payoffs by 
telecom companies for allocation of 2G spectrum.  On the foreign 
policy front, the government will face questions regarding the recent 
U.S.-China joint statement, which included a mention of Indo-Pak 
relations and China's role in the region.  The Opposition may also 
try to attack the government on the internal security situation, 
 
NEW DELHI 00002354  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
including the first anniversary of the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, and the 
increased Naxalite/Maoist violence -- likely with less success -- 
because the GOI is moving forward as never before on confronting this 
insurgency.  The rising price of essential commodities is an issue of 
major concern to not just the opposition parties, but also for some 
of the allies of the government.  The Prime Minister will likely 
appear in Parliament on his return from the United States to brief on 
the results of his trip and defend his government's policies. 
 
Comment: Surprising Lack of Confidence 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The most notable aspect of the sugarcane saga is the speed 
with which the government folded.  Despite the UPA's majority in 
Parliament; its relative success in recent by-elections; and the 
perceived weakness of the BJP, its main challenger; the government 
folded when the SP mobilized a 25,000 strong rent-a-mob (Note: media 
widely covered the protesting farmers' bouts of drinking, vandalism 
and public urination in Delhi's ancient observatory located in the 
heart of the city.  End Note.)  The speed with which Rahul Gandhi ran 
to the Prime Minister's office to appease the protestors reveals that 
the UPA is more brittle in the face of opposition than expected. 
While it may have appeased the sugarcane farmers, the government must 
be wary of other groups with axes to grind who may follow SP's 
example during the winter session.  When the PM returns from the 
United States, greeted by a parliament in disorder and a 
reinvigorated Opposition, he may need to use all his political 
capital to buck up his cadres.  The Opposition will surely scrutinize 
every aspect of the PM's visit, particularly the joint statement, for 
fodder with which to pummel the PM.  END COMMENT.