VZCZCXRO1464
OO RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHNE #2330/01 3221435
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 181435Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8613
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8080
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1471
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 6997
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3769
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1987
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 6587
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002330 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM IN
SUBJECT: MAYAWATI STRONG IN U.P. BY-ELECTIONS, BUT CONGRESS 
MAKING IN-ROADS 
 
¶1. (U) Summary.  In Uttar Pradesh (U.P.), Chief Minister 
Kumari Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) swept the 
November 7 by-elections, winning nine out of eleven Assembly 
seats and consolidating further its hold of the state 
legislature.  The by-elections were equally dramatic for the 
Samajwadi Party (SP), which failed to win a single seat.  The 
lone parliamentary seat was the most bitter loss for SP 
leader Mulayam Singh Yadav who staked his family pride in 
fielding his daughter-in-law, Dimple.  Congress Party 
candidate and former SP Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) 
member Raj Babbar won the seat by an impressive 85,000 votes, 
thanks in large part to the aggressive campaigning of Rahul 
Gandhi and voters' resentment of the Yadav political dynasty. 
 Yadav's son Akhilesh has come out swinging against Gandhi in 
the media, calling for a Generation Next battle.  Despite his 
bravado, most analysts agree that Congress has a good chance 
to emerge as the BSP alternative in the 2012 election in 
India's most populous state, at the expense of both the SP 
and Bharatiya Janata Party. U.P. watchers will keep a close 
eye on the on-again off-again Congress-SP relationship to see 
if it becomes more tense and frayed over time as the SP feels 
increasingly threatened by Rahul Gandhis mission to 
reestablish the Congress Party on SP territory.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Mayawati Still Dominates 
----- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Although Mayawati avoided the campaign trail during 
the November 7 by-elections, her party managed to win nine 
out of eleven Assembly seats and to rebound from its 
disappointing performance in the spring parliamentary 
elections.  Analysts credit the BSP's victory with the 
party's return to its traditional Dalit vote base after it 
tried and failed to woo Brahmin, Muslims, and other groups 
during the April-May parliamentary election.  In the run-up 
to the by-elections, Mayawati made several overtures to Dalit 
voters in the form of seat reservations at private 
institutions and preference in government contracts.  The 
strategy paid off as the BSP's share of the vote increased by 
three percent.  When Mayawati formed her government in May 
2007, the BSP had 206 members in the 403-seat state 
legislature.  Now it has a much more comfortable majority of 
¶227. Contacts warned Poloff not to read too much into the 
BSP's victory, given the advantages and power wielded by any 
ruling party during by-elections when only a handful of seats 
are at stake and ouster of the ruling party is not an option. 
 Journalist Sanjay Kapoor said that after BSP's embarrassing 
showing in the Lok Sabha elections, BSP leaders warned 
district leaders that unless the party machinery churned out 
a better showing in the by-elections, "they would not have 
enough power to charge their cell phones." 
 
But Rahul's Gamble Paid Off 
----- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Congress Party's victory in the race for the 
Firozabad Lok Sabha seat represented another positive step in 
Rahul Gandhi's mission to rebuild the party structure in 
India's most populous state.  Congress candidate Raj Babbar 
trounced his SP competitor Dimple Yadav, SP Leader Mulayam 
Singh Yadav's daughter-in-law, by 85,000 votes.  Congress 
contacts disclosed that Sonia Gandhi had preferred to field a 
weak candidate in the Firozabad race in deference to sometime 
ally Yadav, but her son and Congress Party in-charge for the 
state Digvijay Singh were adamant that the Congress Party 
should pull out all the stops in U.P.  Many commentators 
credit the victory in Yadav's traditional stronghold to 
Gandhi's personal interest in the race.  Contacts told Poloff 
that Gandhi's fresh face and air of transparency contrast 
sharply with Mayawati's hysterics and Yadav's cronyism. 
However, they warn that Gandhi must make substantial progress 
in mobilizing grass roots support for the Congress Party 
ahead of the 2012 state assembly polls.  Journalist Sanjay 
Kapoor opined that Gandhi should consider what his party can 
offer Dalit voters.  While Mayawati is a coarser politician, 
she has successfully delivered empowerment measures to some 
Dalits through government appointments and English education 
programs in schools that cater primarily to Dalits.  Kapoor 
recommended that the Congress Party highlight the BSP's 
rampant corruption to chip away at Mayawati's voter base. 
 
 
NEW DELHI 00002330  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Congress Rajya Sabha MP Rashid Alvi admitted that 
Rahul Gandhi "always attracts a huge crowd," but told Poloff 
the Congress Party had also benefited from anti-SP 
sentiments, stemming from voters resentment of the 
increasingly dynastic politics of the Yadav clan.  Today, 
Yadav's son, brothers, and nephew are all legislators either 
in the state or in the parliament.  Voters apparently decided 
to draw the line at his daughter-in-law in this election. 
Overall, Congress's share of the voters increased by 13 
percent, largely at the expense of the Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP), which was the biggest loser of the by-elections. 
 
SP's Shame 
----- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Yadav took his party's defeat -- especially in 
Firozabad -- as a personal humiliation as it signals a 
significant erosion of his support base in U.P.  Congress 
Party contacts confirmed that Yadav has expressed his dismay 
that Congress had fielded a candidate against his 
daughter-in-law, not to mention a strong candidate like 
former Bollywood star Babbar.  Yadav felt entitled to this 
political courtesy given that SP had refrained from putting 
forth a candidate for the parliamentary elections in the 
districts of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi.  Congress MP Alvi told 
Poloff that the SP had also made a serious blunder when it 
embraced former BJP Chief Minister Kalyan Singh.  Muslims 
blame Kalywan Singh, who was the Chief Minister of UP during 
the destruction of the Babri Masjid (mosque) in 1992, for his 
part in its destruction.  Realizing that Yadav was a "fraud," 
Alvi observed that many Muslim voters returned to the 
Congress Party.  Blaming Kalyan Singh for keeping away the 
Muslim vote in Firozabad, on November 16 Yadav broke his 
party's ties with Singh. 
 
¶6. (SBU) A wounded Yadav could cause some discomfort for the 
Congress Party.  Some analysts have speculated that out of 
spite Yadav could withdraw the support in Delhi that his 
party has extended from outside of the Congress-led United 
Progressive Alliance (UPA).  A weaker UPA could perhaps open 
the door for others -- namely Mayawati -- to create trouble 
for the Congress Party, as the BSP's similar outside support 
would assume greater value for the central government. 
Despite the bad blood, these analysts predict that Yadav will 
likely stay put for the moment to prevent his main political 
rival playing an influential role in both Lucknow and Delhi. 
Contacts note that the SP may also prefer to avoid conflict 
while the Central Bureau of Investigation continues inquiries 
into corruption charges against Yadav and his chief 
lieutenant, the ailing Amar Singh. 
 
Showdown: "Generation Next" 
----- 
 
¶7. (SBU) In the wake of his wife's defeat, SP State President 
and party heir apparent Akhilesh Singh Yadav publicly 
challenged Rahul Gandhi to a political showdown in an odd 
attempt to spin a humbling defeat into a victory.  The 
Congress Party dismissed the SP's proposed Rahul-Akhilesh 
showdown, noting the latter is "too small."  Other contacts 
saw this as the SP's way of trying to rally the SP cadres 
after its wipeout.  Continuing with his lashing out, 
Akhilesh commented, "if the charisma of Rahul Gandhi was so 
captivating for the youth and the masses, why did the 
Congress lose its sitting Assembly seats of Jhansi and 
Padrouna and the other eight Assembly seats?"  He also took 
shots at Babbar's age, criticizing Rahul for claiming to 
represent the youth vote while fielding an "old man." 
 
Comment 
------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) While the by-elections will not have any effect on 
the central government at this time, shifting political 
alliances in U.P. have national consequences.  We do not 
foresee the SP confronting the UPA in Delhi, but the 
Congress-SP relationship could become more tense over time as 
the SP feels increasingly threatened by Rahul Gandhi's 
mission to reestablish the Congress Party on its own 
territory.  END COMMENT, 
ROEMER