VZCZCXRO6283
RR RUEHIK
DE RUEHSK #0382/01 3271852
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 231852Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0556
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0010
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEHSK/AMEMBASSY MINSK 0564

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000382 
 
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EMBASSY KYIV FOR USAID (JRIORDAN AND KMONAGHAN) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS:TWO CLEAR OPPOSITION CAMPS NOW EXIST 
 
REF: MINSK 481 
 
MINSK 00000382  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
1.(U) Summary.  On November 14, the Belarusian Independence Bloc 
(BIB), former members of the United Democratic Forces (UDF), 
held its founding forum in Minsk.  The three guiding principles 
were:  Belarusian sovereignty, democracy, and EU integration. 
The GOB waited until the last minute to approve the venue for 
the forum, but it did not interfere with the daylong event. 
Illegal white-red-white opposition flags were prominently 
displayed alongside EU flags; invited European legislators 
called on the GOB to respect human rights; and, BIB leaders 
derided the current regime as bankrupt and promised to lead 
Belarus to Europe.  BIB called on the west, however, not to 
isolate Belarus but to engage it with conditions.  The choice of 
Europe, BIB claimed, was not a rejection of Russia, but a desire 
to have relations with Russia as an equal state.  Alyaksandr 
Milinkevich concluded the Forum with a rallying speech and 
offered himself as the Bloc's presidential candidate for 2011; a 
statement that caught at least some of the BIB leaders by 
surprise.  BIB, having broken with UDF (reftel), also announced 
its intention to run its own candidates in the local elections. 
End summary. 
 
A Bloc For Those Committed to A European Future for Belarus 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
2.(SBU) On November 14, the newly established Bloc, which 
includes the For Freedom (FF) Movement led by Alyaksandr 
Milinkevich, held the first Belarusian European Forum. 
Approximately 1,000 delegates from across Belarus attended the 
event, along with 50 prominent guests, including European 
Parliament members (EMP), legislators from a number of European 
countries, and a number of the Minsk-based EU Ambassadors.  The 
right of center coalition promotes EU membership as the 
political end state for Belarus.  It includes a mix of 
registered (FF, Belarusian Popular Front (BPF), Right Alliance), 
unregistered (Malady Front, Young Belarus, Belarusian Christian 
Democracy (BCD) party, Party of Freedom and Progress) political 
parties, NGOs, and opposition youth groups.  The GOB kept the 
organizers guessing regarding the venue until the last-minute. 
It did not, however, interfere in the event.  Participants spoke 
openly and freely and the GOB security presence was not 
noticeable.  The Forum organizers prominently displayed 
opposition white-red-white flags (illegal in Belarus) and EU 
flags throughout the meeting hall.  Fifty-two journalists from 
state and independent media were accredited for the Forum, and a 
number of local non-state outlets provided unscripted and 
unimpeded online coverage.  Paval Mazheika, a well-known 
journalist and senior executive of the Polish-based TV channel 
Belsat, served as the Forum's moderator. 
 
European Politicians Proclaim Belarus is European 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
3.(U) The European guests called on the GOB to safeguard 
democratic elections, independent media, and civic freedoms in 
Belarus.  They posited that the adoption of EU norms was not a 
rejection of Belarus' interest, but an affirmation of its 
identity as a European nation.  Recorded greetings from Vacek 
Havel and EP President Jerzy Buzek were televised.  Jacek 
Protasiewicz, Chairman of the EP's Delegation for Relations with 
Belarus urged the GOB in his speech to "respect human rights." 
He said the EU was not "dictating," but he did express hope that 
"leaders who will take the necessary responsibilities" for 
Belarus will emerge "when the [right] time comes."  In addition, 
the Europeans admonished the GOB for denying visas to former 
Special Rapporteur on Belarus Christos Pourgourides, member of 
the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, and 
Lithuanian MP Emanuelis Zingeris. 
 
Affirm its Sovereignty, Promote Democracy, and then Join the EU 
--------------------------------------------- ------------------ 
 
4.(U) The assembled delegates applauded the emotional Belarusian 
language addresses by the BIB leaders.  BPF Chairman Alyaksei 
Yanukevich warned that Belarus was "facing a serious 
geopolitical choice."  He ruled out as "a poor option" the 
notion that Belarus should serve as "a bridge between Russia and 
Europe."  BCD Co-Chair Paval Seviarynets, in his turn, called 
Lukashenka's regime "non-Christian" and "atheistic" and claimed 
that it had flourished only through "deception and corruption." 
He said he expected the next president of Belarus to "be a true 
European, have faith in God, and love Belarus."  The delegates 
cheered when Seviarynets' declared that "we, the democratic 
community, shall build a democratic Belarus and are ready to 
take responsibility for our country." 
 
MINSK 00000382  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
 
5.(SBU) The Forum concluded with an address by Milinkevich in 
what many analysts called his opening campaign speech for the 
presidency.  He emphasized BIB's three interdependent core 
principles:  a sovereign Belarus, a democratic Belarus, and a 
European Belarus.  He approved the regime's effort to go beyond 
just being "Europe's gas pipeline," and characterized the 
western policy of isolating Belarus as counterproductive.  All 
forms of contact, he said, with Europe had to be expanded, but 
he also championed the adoption of "irreversible" economic and 
political reforms in Belarus.  Favoring the EU was not a 
rejection of Russia, he said, as they would always be neighbors, 
but they needed to be so as equals.  BIB would run candidates, 
he said, in the spring 2010 local elections.  As for the 2011 
presidential elections, he posited that the opposition parties 
will nominate a number of candidates, reflecting the different 
visions of Belarus's future that exists among the opposition. 
As for BIB's presidential candidate, if called upon, he said he 
was ready to fulfill the role.  Charge noticed a surprised look 
on the BPF's leader face regarding the last statement.  Three 
days after the Forum, the United Democratic Forces (UDF) 
co-chair, United Civic Party leader Anatloy Levidkov, affirmed 
that UDF would still hold a primary to select its own 
presidential candidate. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.(SBU) BIB's entry into the political field creates at a 
minimum two political opposition camps.  BIB's objective for 
Belarus is EU membership, but to achieve that it points out 
democracy must take root first, and to be sure that's possible 
Belarus's sovereignty must be protected.  Thus BIB rejects the 
policy of isolating Belarus and supports a limited accommodation 
with the regime if it continues its European trajectory and 
movement away from a Union State with Russia.  UDF now covers a 
center to left grouping of parties, youth associations, and NGOs 
united by their common objective of removing Lukashenka from 
power; isolation they believe is an effective tactic.  Both BIB 
and UDF support market reforms; and both BIB and UDF blur the 
lines in their coalitions between political parties, youth 
associations, NGOs, and independent newspapers.  An example was 
Paval Mazheika, a senior executive of the Polish-based TV 
channel Belsat and former Milinkevich's Presidential press 
secretary, playing the role as moderator for BIB's Forum.  The 
GOB has refused to accredit Belsat as a media entity in Belarus. 
 It is too early to say if what occurred this fall was a 
splintering of the opposition or a maturing of the Belarusian 
political process where parties begin to define themselves along 
political ideological lines.  The April 2010 local elections, in 
which both BIB and UDF have committed to run, may provide some 
insight into the question. 
SCANLAN