VZCZCXRO4735
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHLO #2543/01 3141656
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 101656Z NOV 09 ZFF4
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3956
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 002543 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAO MARR MOPS SOCI ECON UK AF
SUBJECT: BRITISH SUPPORT FOR AFGHANISTAN WAR DROPS ON EVE 
OF U.S. DECISION 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: The murder of five British police trainers by 
a rogue Afghan officer, the unsatisfying conclusion to the 
Afghan election, public challenges to UK policy by leading 
politicians, and a wave of wrenching television interviews 
with grieving family members this week combined to dampen 
British public opinion on Afghanistan.  According to one 
poll, Britons believing UK troops should be withdrawn 
immediately has risen from 25 to 35 percent over the last two 
weeks.  Against the backdrop of a Labour government down in 
the polls and President Obama's widely covered deliberations 
on the McChrystal report, commentary from leading media is 
increasingly skeptical on the war.  Some key editors are 
hinting that their publications, hitherto strongly supporting 
the war, are on the verge of turning around.  This same group 
is closely watching the debate in the U.S. End Summary. 
 
Hard Numbers 
------------ 
 
¶2. (U) Three separate recent polls, all showing increased 
public opposition to the war, have received extensive media 
coverage this week. Two of the polls compare data month to 
month, while the third gives a snapshot of public opinion. 
The most recent poll conducted by ComRes/BBC on Nov 4-5 found 
that 64 percent of the public think the war is unwinnable. 
This compares closely to a poll conducted by YouGoV/Channel 4 
on the same dates which found 57 percent think victory is not 
possible. The ComRes/BBC poll also found 63 percent believe 
British troops should be withdrawn as quickly as possible. 
This is a 21 percent increase over the 42 percent of 
respondents calling for an immediate pullout in a July 10-11 
Guardian/BBC Newsnight poll. The YouGov/Channel poll found a 
lower figure of 35 percent calling for immediate withdrawal, 
but that is a 10 percent increase from the same poll 
conducted just two weeks earlier. A third poll, conducted by 
Populus/Times and focusing on British voters in mid-October, 
found that 36 
percent believe British troops should be withdrawn 
immediately, an increase of seven percent from their poll in 
mid-September. Because this poll targets voters, it is likely 
to resonate strongly with politicians in the run-up to the 
May 2010 general elections. 
 
Editorial Support Eroding 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The war in Afghanistan has long been viewed as "the 
good war" by the editors of Britain's leading publications. 
Some have quibbled over the execution of the war and support 
offered to troops, but The Times, The Guardian, The 
Telegraph, The Economist, The Sun and The Daily Mail have 
all, until recently, held the editorial line that NATO should 
be in Afghanistan.  But recent events have shaken their 
certainty.  Reporting and commentary over the weekend show 
that Prime Minister Brown's quickly organized speech at the 
Royal College of Defence Studies (11/6), in which he spelled 
out the UK's reasons for continuing in Afghanistan, did 
little to shore up support. The speech was followed by a 
session in the House of Lords where three former defence 
cheifs criticized Brown for providing insufficient support 
for the troops in Afghanistan. The next day, Scottish First 
Minister Alex Salmond called for a reassessment of the UK's 
role in the war, including "the possibility of withdrawal." 
The Sun has reversed its earlier support for the Brown 
government and is running articles sharply critical of the 
government's prosecution of the war, as is the Daily 
Telegraph. An editor from the Economist told an embassy 
official last week that opinion at the Economist on 
Afghanistan was "on a knife's edge," heading from positive to 
negative. 
 
¶4. (U) The Independent, who said on 11/7 that the case for 
withdrawal was not overwhelming, changed its mind last 
weekend and wrote on 11/9 that "It is time... for a change in 
policy.  It is time to say that this war is ill conceived, 
unwinnable and counterproductive.  It is time to start 
planning a phased withdrawal of British troops." Peter 
Beaumont, the Observer's foreign affairs editor wrote on 
11/9: "Why are we fighting in Afghanistan? I ask because I am 
no longer sure. And not being sure, like a majority of 
Britons, I cannot conceive what victory might look like. That 
makes me think we should not be there."  The commentary was 
balanced with a piece in favor of remaining written by Jason 
Burke, the paper's expert on Al Qaeda. Still, Burke's call 
for continued engagement is not likely to resonate with the 
UK public: "...we have in place the strategy that we should 
have had years ago... But will this strategy work? Probably 
not." Max Hastings, one of the UK's most respected 
conservative commentators, formally called for a UK 
withdrawal in an editorial in the Daily Mail on 11/6 
 
LONDON 00002543  002 OF 002 
 
 
entitled, 'An Unwinnable War.'  Hastings had previously 
called for an increase in troop levels to support NATO's 
objectives. 
 
Media Says Whitehall Looks to Washington 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The continued policy review in Washington is seen by 
some commentators as contributing to a sense of drift.  The 
Daily Telegraph warned on 11/6 that the absence of a clear 
strategy from the U.S. is threatening the mission, creating 
increasing frustration in Whitehall, and hampering HMG's 
attempts to maintain public support for an increasingly 
unpopular conflict. The Guardian (11/7) reported that, 
"Across the alliance, unhappiness within the mission is 
palpable. The longer Obama ponders, the stronger political 
and public opposition is likely to grow." The Times reported 
that Brown's speech at the Royal College of Defence Studies 
came, "amid increasing impatience among British defence 
chiefs and diplomats at President Obama's slowness in 
deciding a new tactic for Afghanistan." 
 
Visit London's Classified Website: 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Unit ed_Kingdom 
 
Susman