VZCZCXRO7746
PP RUEHGI RUEHRN
DE RUEHLGB #0718 3071739
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 031739Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6397
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP 0094
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0300

UNCLAS KIGALI 000718 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV RW
SUBJECT: IMF LOWERS GDP GROWTH ESTIMATE TO 3.7 PERCENT 
 
¶1. (SBU)  IMF Resident Representative Dmitry Gershenson told 
Emboff November 2 the IMF has lowered its estimate of 
Rwanda's GDP growth in 2009 from 5.6 percent to 3.7 percent. 
The new estimate follows consultations between the Government 
of Rwanda (GOR) and an IMF mission led by Catherine McAuliff 
that is currently visiting Rwanda.  Both the IMF and Rwandan 
Minister of Finance James Musoni attributed the lower growth 
rate to repercussions from the global economic downturn and 
reduced domestic agricultural production in the second half 
of 2009. 
 
¶2. (U)  Minister of Agriculture Agnes Kalibata told the press 
October 23, that growth in agricultural production was likely 
to decline from 16 percent in 2008 to 7-8 percent in 2009 due 
to late rains and ongoing drought in the Eastern and Southern 
provinces.  Strong growth in agricultural productivity over 
the last two years has helped offset declines in exports, 
manufacturing and tourism during the same period due to the 
global economic downturn. 
 
¶3. (U) During the first half of 2009, exports declined by 32 
percent and visitors to the national parks declined by 18 
percent compared to 2008, according to an October 15 Ministry 
of Trade and Industry report to the Private Sector Cluster 
Group.  Last year Rwanda's economy grew 11.2 percent, largely 
propelled by gains in agriculture.  In 2008, agriculture 
represented 33 percent of GDP, according to the National 
Institute of Statistics "National Accounts 1999-2008" 
released in mid-October. 
 
¶4. (U) Local bankers and officials at the Ministry of Finance 
told Emboff November 2, they are seeing increased activity in 
construction and minerals exports, and they predict higher 
GDP growth rates in 2010.  According to statistics released 
from the Ministry of Trade and Industry on October 15, local 
and foreign investment has increased by 213 percent in 2009 
compared to 2008.  Construction represents 44 percent of 
total new investment. 
SYMINGTON