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O 121241Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4729
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
CJTF HOA

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 001277 
 
 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PHUM KPAO OIIP SU
SUBJECT: Media Reaction to U.S. Special Envoy Scott Gration: The 
NCP-SPLM Deadlock 
 
¶1. SUMMARY: Visible "shuttle diplomacy" between officials of the 
National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation 
Movement (SPLM) failed to produce a break-through by the U.S. 
Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration on his recent visit to Sudan. 
Media followed the impasse on two-party progress toward outstanding 
issues of Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) implementation.  By 
mid-visit, local pro-government and independent print media 
reproduced the Special Envoy's assessment that "failure is not an 
option."  By the visit's end, however, hope for an NCP-SPLM 
compromise diminished.  The media gave credit to the Envoy's efforts 
but highlighted U.S. inability to bring the parties to an agreement. 
 Statements in favor of secession by SPLM Chairman and Government of 
the Southern Sudan (GOSS) President Salva Kiir Mayardit as well as 
an impassioned public speech by Foreign Minister Deng Alor in 
Khartoum overtook most of the week's headliner stories and prompted 
journalists to inquire whether such statements could be seen as a 
violation of the CPA. END SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------------- 
Tactical, Yes - Strategic, No 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. Tension was already high on October 31, when the Special Envoy 
arrived in Sudan.  The media widely reported remarks by GOSS 
President Salva Kiir that Saturday in Saint Teresa's Catholic 
Cathedral, Juba, indicating that a vote for unity was a vote for 
second-class citizenship.  Headlines ricocheted from criticizing the 
new U.S. strategy on Sudan to anticipation toward mediation efforts 
of the U.S. delegation.  Pro-government "Al Rai Al-Aam" announced, 
"Fresh Sudanese-American Round of Talks on Tuesday."  Independent 
newspapers on November 2 were expectant: "The Opposition Intends to 
Submit a Complaint against the NCP to the Special Envoy" 
("Al-Sahafa") and "Opposition Parties Write a Petition to Scott 
Gration" ("The Citizen").  In a same-day editorial in pro-government 
Al-Rai Al-Aam, entitled "Dr. Ghazi: The U. S. Deals within a Retail 
Sale System," the piece drew extensively from statements by 
Presidential Advisor Ghazi Salah Eldeen to accuse the U.S. 
Administration of not being "brave enough to face the active 
political lobbies."  Combining the recent strategy roll-out and 
Special Envoy's visit, the article declared, "America is capable of 
being a negative or a positive force ... Gration's personal stance 
is different [from U.S. policy] and ... strives to be just within 
the limits of American policy."  The paper quoted Ghazi on the new 
U.S. strategy on Sudan -- "tactical" rather than strategic -- and on 
America as "a selfish emperor thinking only of itself, despite 
Obama's claims [to the contrary] in his Cairo speech."  It included 
Ghazi's characterization of Kiir's call for secession as the "real 
stance of the SPLM." 
 
-------------------------- 
"Failure Is Not an Option" 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3. In "Al-Raed," of November 8, journalist Khalid Yousif embellished 
on responses to an "interview" [press stakeout] with Special Envoy 
Gration: "I am optimistic ... we hope to see some progress.  There 
are positive indicators.  I am optimistic about unity, and there is 
a solution to every problem.  Failure is not an option in the 
elections or in the referendum because the remaining time is short. 
I will continue to communicate with NCP and SPLM to solve disputes. 
The choice of the people in the elections and referendum must be 
respected peacefully.  We are not putting pressure on any party yet. 
 We are going to give talks a chance."  Al-Tayyar and Al-Ayaam also 
used the "failure is not an option" quote.  Other press reports 
equally picked up on the Envoy's outlook of optimism early in the 
week and his dismissal of failure as an option.  In pro-government 
daily "Al-Ahdath," on November 4, political analyst Mohamed Osman 
Omer observed that "the enthusiasm with which American Presidential 
Envoy to Sudan, Retired General Scott Gration, displayed towards his 
mission, which he started in July, is fading out in spite of his 
success in reducing his opponents in Washington ... The political 
atmosphere in Sudan, where he arrived last Friday, is not the same 
atmosphere he had experienced during his previous visit.  The 
political reality has been affected by a political paralysis ...." 
The article is titled, "Washington's Strategy between Realistic 
Ghazi and Optimistic Gration."  In addition to quoting the Special 
Envoy's confession of eternal optimism, the writer noted: "While the 
American General was on his way from Juba to Khartoum following 
consultations with SPLM, the First Vice President and President of 
the South hammered another nail on the coffin of the delicate 
relationship when he asked southerners to vote for separation in the 
referendum.  These statements generated much reaction, and the NCP 
considered it a violation of the CPA."  "Al-Ahdath," too, reported 
Ghazi's "frank" remark to Gration that what the United States was 
calling strategy "is rather just tactics, with no connecting thread 
between them," adding, "if the United States took seven months to 
pass its strategy, we will need two to three week to reply to it." 
 
-------------------------------- 
Making Secession Less Attractive 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. The visit took place amidst an uphill battle against SPLM public 
statements, such as that of Salva Kiir regarding how southerners 
might cast their votes, followed by Foreign Minister Deng Alor who, 
on November 4 at a United Nations symposium, added his commentary 
into the mix, accusing the NCP of "making secession attractive" not 
unity.  In this climate, November 8 Paris-based online publication 
SudanTribune.com noted, "U.S. Envoy Departs Sudan Amid Growing 
NCP-SPLM Tension."  The article reported that "retired General 
Gration left on Friday after failing to bridge differences between 
the two major partners in the government of National unity (GoNU)" 
although there had been indications earlier that the NCP and the 
SPLM "were close to agreeing on disputed item[s] of referendum and 
the census through Gration's mediation."  SudanTribune.com spelled 
out the difficulty of defining next steps "for both parties and the 
U.S. administration, which is working hard to prevent the 2005 
Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) it helped broker from 
unraveling."  Independent daily "The Citizen," on November 9, 
printed a UNMIS/Fondation Hirondelle-funded Miraya FM news report 
from the previous week stating that the U.S. Envoy "wraps up Sudan 
visit with no breakthrough in NCP-SPLM deadlock."  "The Citizen" 
refered to "failed" mediation efforts to "resolve the deadlock 
between NCP and SPLM over the census results, South Sudan 
referendum, and national security bills."  Miraya FM quoted SPLM 
Deputy Chairman Yassir Arman that talks would resume between the two 
parties on November 7 "after failure to reach compromise on 
Gration's proposals."  A quote by leading NCP member Abdel Rahman 
Al-Khalifa confirmed an "understanding" on the referendum between 
NCP and SPLM, who were "considering proposals made by U.S. Special 
Envoy to resolve contested issues." 
 
--------------------------------- 
Putting the Cart before the Horse 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5. Straight news articles of November 7 acknowledged attempts by the 
Special Envoy to move the two partners toward compromise and 
flexibility.  A pro-government Al-Ahdath headline on page 2 that day 
read, "Gration leaves without settling partner's disputes," and 
followed with, "Gration proposed compromising suggestions with 
regard to several portfolios but received no acceptance from NCP or 
SPLM.  Both decided to go back to their parties for more 
consultations."  Independent "Al-Tayyar" of November 7 incorporated 
a comment by the Special Envoy that time is limited, as "we are just 
few months away from elections and the referendum, and things change 
rapidly."  The daily defined his visit focus as "easing tension 
between CPA partners in preparation for 2010 elections."  Yet 
editorials that came out after his visit were critical.  "Al-Ahdath" 
columnist Mohamed Abdel Hakam wrote on November 7, "It is clear that 
NEC [National Elections Commission] is carrying out its commitment 
to conduct elections on April 5-12, and to release the results in 
mid-April.  This makes the practical rejection of the American 
proposal clear ... The Popular Congress Party (PCP), refused the 
American proposal of postponing elections until after the 
referendum.  This came after Special Envoy General Scott Gration met 
with PCP Deputy Secretary-General Abdalla Hassan Ahmed, who said, 
'we reiterated to the American Envoy that a government could not be 
established with technocrats only and no judiciary.'"  The article 
is titled "The American Proposal of Postponing Elections ... A 
Dialogue of Putting the Cart before the Horse."  A same-day article 
on the back-page of Al-Tayyar labelled the American proposal to 
postpone parliamentary elections and proceed with presidential 
elections "monkey's thinking," a waste of resources and of dubious 
outcome.  Journalist Osman Mirghani opined, "It is better to conduct 
all elections and to give the people the best chance to express 
themselves.  Presidential seats in the center [Khartoum] or the 
states would have limited effect on the masses, given that the 
Parliament would be appointed."  Independent "Al-Ayaam" reproduced 
on November 5 a piece by Imad Hassan, originally published in the 
United Arab Emirates daily "Al-Khaleej," headlined 
"Sudanese-American Relations: The Long Way to Settlement."  The 
journalist assessed the state of play between the two countries: 
"There is a general agreement in Washington that the United States 
should turn a new page with Sudan. This consensus is due to 
Gration's efforts to put the stick down and to wave the carrot at 
Khartoum.  The carrot is well wrapped in stipulations and conditions 
that Khartoum has overlooked, concentrating instead on the cup half 
empty, which depends on diplomatic work and not aggressive action." 
 
 
WHITEHEAD