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O 101345Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4721
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001272 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR KDEM SU
SUBJECT: SUDAN: 49th Plenary of the AEC 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:  The November 8, 49th Plenary of the Assessment and 
Evaluation Commission (AEC) tackled the following issues: 
preparations for upcoming elections and referendum, post referendum 
arrangements, voter registration and border demarcation problems in 
Abyei.  State Minister at the Ministry of Energy and Mining, 
Angelina Teny represented the Sudan People's Liberation Movement 
(SPLM) and Ambassador Hassan Adam Omer represented the National 
Congress Party (NCP).  U.S. Charge d'Affaires (CDA) Robert Whitehead 
gave a brief readout of U.S. Special Envoy (SE) Scott Gration's 
recent visit to Sudan, in which he met jointly with the SPLM and NCP 
and deferred to the NCP and SPLM delegations for updates in progress 
in negotiations following the SE's departure.  According to Teny, 
the parties have come to terms on overcoming remaining obstacles by 
forming teams to tackle issues on a timeline, which in itself is an 
achievement.  With the April 2010 presidential elections only five 
months away and the 2011 referendum in the South fast approaching, 
there was growing concern among AEC members that not enough time 
remains to organize free and fair votes.  One participant reported 
that a group of Sudanese intellectuals is calling for an extension 
of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement's transitional period, to which 
AEC Chairman Sir Derek Plumbly rejoined that the most important 
strategy in the remaining months is to speed up CPA implementation, 
not extend it.  The next plenary is scheduled for December 8.  End 
Summary 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Delegates Concerned with Shrinking Elections Timelines 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Preparations for Sudan's 2010 Presidential elections and 
2011 referendum generated expressions of concern among the delegates 
of the Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) due to spiraling 
problems with voter registration; continued inter-ethnic fighting in 
the South; the lack of agreement between the National Congress Party 
(NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) on the 
disputed census, referendum turnout requirements and the SPLM 
boycott of Parliament over key pieces of election-related 
legislation (including the referendum bill) not yet tabled.  In its 
49th Plenary Session on November 8, the representatives of countries 
and multilateral groups that comprise the AEC encouraged the parties 
to tackle the core issues in preparation for the elections, warning 
that time is not on their side. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Teny - Reviewing U.S. Recommendations 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Angelina Teny, SPLM State Minister of Energy and Mining of 
the Government of National Unity (GONU), said the SPLM is committed 
to proceed with the elections and will continue to work to solve the 
census issue.  She said the SPLM sent a paper to the NCP on this 
issue and awaits a response.  Teny said that the two parties agreed 
that disputed points should be handled as a "package," particularly 
those that share similar timelines.  AEC Chairman, Sir Derek 
Plumbly, suggested an ideal package consisting of popular 
consultations, the referendum, and Abyei residency.  Teny took 
positive note of the NCP's decision to withdraw the National 
Security Bill from Parliament.  She said the parties have agreed to 
use the definition as per the CPA for the Abyei Referendum Bill so 
that the criteria for a resident will be defined by the Abyei 
Referendum Commission.  As such, the parties would accept the use of 
precise terms of the Abyei Protocol.  Among other details, the 
parties continue to debate is whether former Abyei residents now 
outside of Abyei should be allowed to vote.  Teny described two 
census proposals on which the parties are negotiating.  The NCP 
favors amendment of the Constitution while the SPLM wants to amend 
the electoral law to provide the South larger legislative 
representation.  Teny said the SPLM is also reviewing a U.S. 
proposed compromise on turnout requirements. 
 
--------------------------------- 
UNMIS Disagrees with Package Idea 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) UNMIS representative Muin Shrein commended the efforts of 
the parties for negotiating the details of the CPA; nonetheless, the 
UNMIS representative warned consolidating the issues could result in 
slowing down the process.  He appealed to the parties to make 
necessary concessions to move forward, as they risk sending the 
wrong message to the international community, which wants to see 
progress.  Teny responded that things are moving forward and 
disagreed that a "package" strategy would complicate the issue.  She 
contended the parties have agreed to the majority of disputed issues 
and the teams are making significant joint efforts.  The new 
strategy, she said, was an attempt to meet deadlines.  Teny said the 
SPLM has clearly committed itself to elections and will work to find 
 
KHARTOUM 00001272  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
a solution to the census issue.  She declared, "One way or another, 
an agreement will go forward." 
 
-------------- 
Abyei Concerns 
-------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Netherlands Ambassador Norbert Braakhuis, who chairs the 
Three Areas Working Group, expressed concern that voter registration 
in Abyei would fail because only a single registration team was in 
place.  He noted that the imminent migration of Misseriya nomads 
into Abyei and beyond could raise tensions.  A November 5 meeting 
between the five concerned state governors had not come off due to 
the absence of the governors from Unity and South Darfur states.  He 
decried about the lack of border demarcation in Abyei due to 
logistic and security shortfalls.  The GOS had provided helicopter 
support to the technical Demarcation Committee, which had allowed 
them to overfly the border area that remains too wet to reach by 
land.  Braakhuis continued, however, that the Oversight Commission 
had still not coalesced and that the cohesion of the Joint 
Integrated Unit (JIU) in Abyei was such that the SPLM commissioners 
were not convinced that it could provide them adequate protection 
against Misseriya elements that did not want the demarcation to take 
place.  The SPLM commissioners had written a letter to the 
Presidency asking for guidance to proceed and requesting that the 
Presidency provide sufficient security to let the demarcation 
proceed. 
 
¶6.  (U) Braakhuis pointed out that UNMIS could also deploy its 
forces stationed in Abyei to provide protection, setting off a 
skirmish with the UNMIS representative.  UNMIS poloff Shrein 
countered that UNMIS wanted to be more pro-active but had no mandate 
from the UN Security Council to do so.  Braakhuis shot back that 
UNMIS, which has the ability to move around the area, could also do 
more to report back to the AEC what is happening on the ground 
instead of forcing those outside the area to rely on rumor and 
inaccurate press reports for information.  The UNMIS representative 
repeated that UNMIS is doing what it can and that it was "unfair" to 
insist that UNMIS do border demarcation.  He repeated, "We are doing 
what we can with the Misseriya and Dinka. 
 
------------- 
Teny Piles On 
------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) State Minister Teny said that the SPLM was ready as a party 
to join the NCP in a unified message that all parties must accept 
the results of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) and send a 
clear message to the Misseriya People that there is no alternative 
to the Misseriya and Dinka working together.  She criticized the NCP 
for what she called an "unfortunate lukewarm" response to the Abyei 
border demarcation issue.  Plumbly said the AEC Coordinator and 
UNMIS must stay in touch and that the Presidency should respond to 
the Committee by taking steps to ensure security.  He said that NCP 
Minister Abdul Kadir, who could not attend the meeting, agreed to 
help.  Plumbly chided Ambassador Hassan, who admitted he had not 
been briefed on the issues under discussion, and said that the NCP 
had earlier assured Plumbly they would be fully represented. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
AEC Chairman Says CPA Timeframe is Set 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) Plumbly said that he recently met with the parties to 
encourage action in conjunction with the U.S. leadership on the 
trilateral negotiations.  He referenced his recent meeting with 
Sudanese intellectuals who expressed grave concerns about the 
referendum and has proposed to extend the interim period of the 
Comprehensive Peace Agreement, beyond in 2011.  The Chairman 
countered that the dates of the CPA are set and the most important 
thing now is to speed up implementation, not look to postponement. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Workshops to Fuel Post 2011 Discussions 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (U) The United Kingdom raised the urgency of settling post 2011 
issues.  UK Ambassador Marsden noted that Chatham House had 
organized workshops in both Juba and Khartoum, and the feedback had 
been positive.  They are currently planning a third workshop in 
December that they hope will promote further discussions.  UNMIS is 
also conducting a seminar in Juba according to its representative 
who said UNMIS does not want to duplicate efforts.  He warned that 
there must be a better coordinating mechanism for the work to be 
optimally beneficial.  U.S. Charge' said the United States agrees on 
the need to reduce the uncertainties of the post-2011 period, 
 
KHARTOUM 00001272  003 OF 003 
 
 
whatever the outcome of the referendum.  He noted that the parties 
have already identified nine distinct post referendum issues that 
must be resolved. 
 
--------------------- 
Working Group Updates 
--------------------- 
 
¶10.  (U) The Three Areas Working Group trip has been postponed but 
Braakhuis will travel to Muglad with the Dutch Cooperation Minister 
the week of November 16.  The October AEC visit to Blue Nile State 
report was circulated by the Three Areas coordinator.  The AEC 
Security Working Group will visit Juba, Upper Nile and Malakal 
November 10-13 to assess security conditions. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Comment:  Minister Teny and Ambassador Omer were a 
mismatch in this plenary.  Teny was up to date on the salient issues 
in SPLM/NCP talks, while Ambassador Hassan was basically warming the 
seat.  Presidential Advisor, Idris, who usually presents the NCP 
side of the discussion, did not attend for purported health-related 
reasons. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Comment Continued: The UNMIS representative made a valid 
point about the need to coordinate who will be involved in settling 
post-referendum issues.  In addition to UNMIS, Chatham House, the 
AEC, and to some degree the U.S.-led trilateral talks, South 
Africa's Institute for Strategic Studies (ISS) and another European 
group are rumored to be in the chase.  Absent coordination, we risk 
another round of forum shopping such as those that have historically 
plagued Darfur rebel unification efforts. 
 
WHITEHEAD